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10NL 6max 55 blind vs button - set over set (later quads)

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10NL 6max 55 blind vs button - set over set (later quads) - Sat Jun 16, 2012, 12:22 PM
(#1)
AwesomeClown's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 9
The player on the button was very tight and aggressive, he also kept his range rather tight on the button. I could have folded straight away preflop, but I thought that I had the odds for some set mining.



I checked on the flop to let him catch up, since the way he played he would have folded with anything less than middle pair. His bet told me that he held a reasonable top-pair like hand.

After his re-reraise on the turn I put him on an overpair. He might have also done it with AJ thinking that I was just bluffing, since I had been playing the previous hands very aggressively. Can I really fold a set in this situation?
 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 06:06 PM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,473
(Head Trainer)
Hi AC,

I'm never folding a set here, if he has JJ then nh... I agree he can show up with QQ-AA as well.

I don't like the preflop line however, this sounds like it's not a great set mining situation. The stacks are deep enough of course, but the villain as described (tight) isn't a great target in that although the money is deep enough he may not be inclined to give us big action too often. Against this opponent it may be better to 3b him to take the initiative and we can expect a lot of folds immediately, or on the flop. Or if we call, to be making some aggressive post flop plays on board textures that look bad or scary for his preflop raising range. Calling strictly to set mine is probably not going to be profitable in this spot against a villain like this specifically.

Dave


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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 07:30 AM
(#3)
AwesomeClown's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 9
I am not sure, 3betting here feels like a bluff to me, because I would not expect such a tight player to call with worse hands. But if I expect or want him to call, would I still have the odds to make such a move? I would be more comfortable just folding my hand preflop.
 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 02:34 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,473
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by AwesomeClown View Post
I am not sure, 3betting here feels like a bluff to me, because I would not expect such a tight player to call with worse hands. But if I expect or want him to call, would I still have the odds to make such a move? I would be more comfortable just folding my hand preflop.
There's nothing wrong with just folding imo.

3-betting is basically a semi-bluff of sorts... you will sometimes have the best hand when called, and sometimes not. He'll probably call with stuff like AQ/AK, 77-TT or JJ would be my guess. But by taking the initiative he will fold to your c-bet on the flop a lot, and when he doesn't fold you should be able to have a pretty good idea of what's going on based on the board texture. I think against this guy it's going to be a profitable 3b just based on how often I'd expect you to take it down pre, or to a c-bet on the flop. And that's assuming you never win when still called, but of course sometimes you will still win anyway.

My point is calling strictly to flop a set, and just check/fold when you don't, is probably not a profitable line here as the implied odds really aren't there (the stacks are there to provide them, but this villain type is not going to cooperate nearly often enough I would think). Thus for me, if I play this hand (again folding is ok), I'm going to want a clear plan for how I will win some of the time when I don't flop a set, since that's the only way to get into the profitable zone. If I don't know how that's possible, then folding is my preferred choice.


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Tue Jun 19, 2012, 06:54 AM
(#5)
AwesomeClown's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 9
Makes perfect sense, thanks Dave!
 

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