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AK SNG bubble

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AK SNG bubble - Sat Jun 16, 2012, 12:55 PM
(#1)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Here’s an interesting hand:

This is a 6 Max SNG with two payouts: 1st 65%; 2nd 35%

tanu86 stats: VPIP 39; PFR 36; AF 5.3 squish12 stats: VPIP 46; PFR 15; AF 5.4

Both villains have been aggressive the whole game (105 hands).

What would you do in the following hand?

I’ll follow-up on this hand later in the week.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 01:24 PM
(#2)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
I can see why you didn't like it, A K can be so treacherous. But I think with all that money out there I'd've shoved.

The odds calculator (If I'm using it right) says you have about 30% equity but a win here would practically lock up the tourney even assuming they both call.

Do you have any fold to three bet stats for them? Also I don't know how you were playing. But if you were relatively tight, and if either of your opponents might notice such things, then that might give your shove a bit more credibility.
But then I have call / shove / fold issues on the bubble myself 8-)
Rob.
 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 01:45 PM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I would shove too. Can't fold pre, and to call then fold when missing the flop looks terrible too. Any reraise needs to be a shove imo.

If the opening raise is a 15% range and assuming the call is tighter - say around top 10% calling range - you would have about 40% equity preflop against both opponents - not a huge edge - but if they both call, when you win you go from 3rd to very superior stacked 1st with a big pot. If they fold you take the lead as well.

If you are not willing to get your chips in with AK to get back in this tourney and take it down, what hands are you waiting for? And if you are hoping one opp busts/cripples the other this hand so you move up to 2nd you will be at a huge chip disadvantage and less likely to win outright.

Looks like a perfect spot to get it in. Yes you will lose a proportion of the time, but you are already in bad shape - if they both see the flop and no more chips go in you are alive and still fighting but still short and this looks like your best hope of the win.

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 01:51 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 01:57 PM
(#4)
shirshot's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 665
Are you in it to win it or back into the money?
Shove for the win !!
If 1st and 2nd got equal prizes I would fold.

Last edited by shirshot; Sat Jun 16, 2012 at 02:02 PM..
 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 02:35 PM
(#5)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
I think this is a shove here nearly every time. You've got some fold equity and the button is opening wider than AK+. You haven't put their fold to 3-bet stats, but you're short stacked and it's unlikely that you'll get a better spot to double up.
 
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Sat Jun 16, 2012, 03:01 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Hi king_spadez1!

I'm on the money bubble as the short stack, so I'm definitely looking to accumulate chips and get into a better position and hopefully to win the tourney.... especially as the shortest stack at the table with under 7BB in front of me.

I could either call, fold, or shove, so I now need to go to pokerstove, to see which makes the most sense and is the correct play.

As a short stack with AK, unless the two opps before me are all-in, guaranteeing me getting ITM, I don't want to fold (I may even be priced in for a call of 2 shoves... which we'll see).

To call would cost me 400 chips into a pot that will be 1800 (22.2%).

I now go into pokerstove and I'll use my exact hand, a top 15% hand for squish (since he has a 15%PFR) and a 39% range for the other opp (vpip number). Against their ranges, I have 43% equity.

I definitely have a higher hand equity than the pot equity for a call (43%>22%), so I can at least call, but... is this the best play?

I think that shoving here will be the optimum play for these reasons.
1) if both opps fold, then I over double the stack in front of me without a fight.
2) if one opp folds, then I will have put 1352 into a pot that will be 4104 (32.9%). I have 43% equity vs 2 opps.. if I'm only up against one opp, that number will go up. Therefore, if either opp calls, it will be a +EV play.
3) if both opps call, then I have put 1352 into a pot that will be 5456 (24.8%). I have 43% equity vs both opps... so this is a +EV play too.

Due to all of this, along with using good bankroll management, in case I lose... I'm shoving here every single time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Follow-up - Thu Jun 21, 2012, 01:27 PM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
Here’s an interesting hand:

This is a 6 Max SNG with two payouts: 1st 65%; 2nd 35%

tanu86 stats: VPIP 39; PFR 36; AF 5.3 squish12 stats: VPIP 46; PFR 15; AF 5.4

Both villains have been aggressive the whole game (105 hands).

The replayer action has been updated to show the complete hand:
As the hand played out, I feel Tanu86 should have 3-bet jammed PF, unless he felt squish123 would auto-call his jam, so as a secondary play to the jam, he should have tried a 'stop and go' play, especially because he was willing to check/call being put AI on the flop.
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“Are you in it to win it?” and, “What are you waiting for?”, are not always valid questions when dealing with STT bubbles. Using an ICM calculator gives a better understanding of what you should do. The payout structure for this STT is, 1st 65%, and 2nd 35%. Coming in 2nd twice, is a bit better than coming in 1st once. By taking a chance here, you risk being out of the tourney 2 out of 3 times.

I found this an easy fold, due to ICM tEV. I don’t really expect to have any fold equity; at least one of these players will call. If they both call, I expect to be facing a pocket pair (or two pocket pairs), and/or a hand that duplicates one or both of my cards, the latter scenario being the worst. At best I feel I only have 33% equity with this hand if they both call. I also feel that after risking 1/3 of his stack, tanu86 may ‘stop and go’, shoving AI on any flop. If squish123 understands the ‘stop and go’ play, and feels tanu86 knows the play, squish123 will call just about any flop. The fact that they are both obviously aggressive makes me feel that the money is going in on the flop. Folding gives me an excellent chance of making the money this hand, or at least being 2nd in chips by a good margin.

Below is the ICM tEV I have by folding, if the money goes in by the river:
a) If tanu86 wins:
tanu86 (4116) = 54%
squish123 (532) = 13.5%
king_spadez1 (1352) = 32.5%
b) If squish123 wins:
squish123 (4648) = 58%
king_spadez1 (1352) = 42%
Average equity for this same scenario over 3 different tourneys = 37.25%

Below is the ICM tEV I have by folding, if no further money goes into the pot:
a) If tanu86 wins:
tanu86 (2758) = 42%
squish123 (1890) = 33%
king_spadez1 (1352) = 25%
b) If squish123 wins:
tanu86 (1358) = 26.5%
squish123 (3290) = 47%
king_spadez1 (1352) = 26.5%
Average equity for this same scenario over 3 different tourneys = 25.75%

Below is the ICM tEV I have by shoving, assuming no fold equity (two callers), and 33% hand equity:
a) If I win:
tanu86 (406) = 13%
squish123 (938) = 29.5%
king_spadez1 (4656) = 57.5%
b) If I lose I will be out of the tourney 2 out of 3 times:
king_spadez1 (0) = 0%
Average equity for this same scenario over 3 different tourneys = 19.16%

Conclusion:
Best tEV scenarios are by folding – 37.25%; 25.75%; Average tEV by folding is 31.5%
Worst tEV scenario is by calling – Average tEV = 19.16%


"May the cards be with you!"

Last edited by king_spadez1; Thu Jun 21, 2012 at 01:29 PM.. Reason: took out... "I’ll follow-up on this hand later in the week", from this quote
 
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Thu Jun 21, 2012, 01:43 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I think you're underestimating the hand equity when you shove. I get 43% from pokerstove, not 33%. That will make a huge difference because instead of 1/3 cashing, it's closer to 1 in 2.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Jun 21, 2012, 02:47 PM
(#9)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
I think you're underestimating the hand equity when you shove. I get 43% from pokerstove, not 33%. That will make a huge difference because instead of 1/3 cashing, it's closer to 1 in 2.

John (JWK24)
I am no mathematician, but I think you must have some fold equity over the original raiser with the bottom end of their range, if they are called and then shoved over - and even that small proportion of times they fold increases you subsequent pot equity by what? About 10%?

And I also put you on a higher pot equity - nearer 40% than 30%.

Don't know how much this affects the calcs but it seems less of an easy fold to me.

You are right that it is interesting - as it seems so straightforward a shove to me, and an easy fold for you. Maybe its closer and neither is entirely wrong.

OK you maths genius poker players - who wants to crunch some numbers!

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Revisited equity - Thu Jun 21, 2012, 04:29 PM
(#10)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
I've gone through the math outside of game play beforehand, that is why I found this to be easy fold. By studying problematic scenarios, you will be more apt to play trouble hands correctly. Having said that, there are still many intangibles you need to consider while playing the hand.

Below I've revisited the tEV for shoving; I've included hand equity %'s that I feel are actually higher than they might be, to see if even those equities would garner a different outlook than I already have.

Given a hand equity of 43%, your average tEV for shoving goes up to 24.75%, still under the average tEV for folding.

Below is the ICM tEV I have by shoving, assuming tanu86 calls, and we have 55% hand equity:
a) If I win:
tanu86 (406) = 23.4%
squish123 (1890) = 34.8%
king_spadez1 (3704) = 41.8%
b) If I lose I will be out of the tourney 45 out of 100 times:
king_spadez1 (0) = 0%
Average equity for this same scenario over 100 different tourneys = 23%

Below is the ICM tEV I have by shoving, assuming squish123 calls, and we have 55% hand equity:
a) If I win:
tanu86 (1358) = 30.9%
squish123 (935) = 27.7%
king_spadez1 (3704) = 41.5%
b) If I lose I will be out of the tourney 45 out of 100 times:
king_spadez1 (0) = 0%
Average equity for this same scenario over 100 different tourneys = 22.8%

Combining the 3 scenarios above, the average tEV is 23.5%. This is an increase of 4.34% over my prior post that didn’t include the possibility of either villain folding. There is another scenario where both villains might fold, but I find this highly unlikely, but if so, the % they both fold will be small. Our tEV would go up to 37.2% those times that they both fold (?10%?). Given a reasonable small % of both villains folding, our average tEV for shoving would go up another 3% or so, upping the calling tEV to 26.5%, still under the tEV for folding.


"May the cards be with you!"
 

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