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i got AK - 4.4 180 man Final Table

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i got AK - 4.4 180 man Final Table - Sun Jun 17, 2012, 07:46 PM
(#1)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
i got AKs - 4.4 180 man Final Table

im 2nd in chips and to my right which is the chip leader is always raising maybe to steal more blinds and I know he is raising light because before I'm 2nd in chips I've been shoving all in to his min raise around 15bb's twice and both times he folded

now he's the scenario instead of min raising the chip leader raised 3bb's which kinda made me feel he's a little bit strong and i got 35bb's 2nd in chips with AKs because he is raising hard when he got a really good hand , AJ AQ AK TT+ is definitely his range when he's raising 3x instead of

so i got AKs what do i do?

do i shove and let him make a weak call because of our previous action that im always shoving to his raise but the difference now is i got 35bb's instead of 15bb's, he might call me with AQ AJ and JJ+

do i just call and see the flop and take it from there. if i miss i fold i lose 3bb and still be 2nd in chips

if i shove and get call and won the pot i'm an overwhelming chip leader
if he folds i won 4.5bb's without showdown
if he win's i lose my tournament life from 2nd place in chips to 8th place finish
 
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Sun Jun 17, 2012, 10:25 PM
(#2)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I would be calling and re-evaluating on the flop, but I'm kinda a nit. I think AKs is too good to fold, and too weak for a reraise, and I really hate to get into a betting war with the big stack, expecially when you're in second place. It's an easy fold if you miss and face more aggression. YMMV.

 
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Sun Jun 17, 2012, 10:43 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Marvin!

If calling still keeps me 2nd in chips, with the opp raising more than normal, then I'll call and play the rest of the hand in position. The top 3 are where the largest pay jumps are, so I want to protect a top 3 position while still being able to gain chips on the chip leader if I hit the flop.

If I had less chips and wasn't in the top 3, then I'd be much more likely to 3-bet shove, as I need to be accumulating chips to get to the top 3, then to try to win.

But, since I'm already 2nd in chips and can call and see the flop, which keeps me 2nd in chips, I'll call and re-evaluate in position after the flop.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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AK Dilemma - Mon Jun 18, 2012, 02:49 AM
(#4)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
i got AKs - 4.4 180 man Final Table

im 2nd in chips and to my right which is the chip leader is always raising maybe to steal more blinds and I know he is raising light because before I'm 2nd in chips I've been shoving all in to his min raise around 15bb's twice and both times he folded

now he's the scenario instead of min raising the chip leader raised 3bb's which kinda made me feel he's a little bit strong and i got 35bb's 2nd in chips with AKs because he is raising hard when he got a really good hand , AJ AQ AK TT+ is definitely his range when he's raising 3x instead of

so i got AKs what do i do?
There’s more info needed to calculate your tEV. The payoff structure is top loaded, thus you have another money bump at 3rd place. This money bump inflates the Bubble Factor (BF). The BF is always highest for the two top stacks when they are going against each other. Basically it means you need much more equity than the pot odds are offering you when facing an AI.

I had to assume certain figures when setting up the ICM calculations. I put you on level 14 (800/1600, ante 150); that leaves 169BB for the table to share. I gave the chip leader 50BB, you 35BB, the rest were allocated 25, 20, 12, 12, 8, and 7; with this scenario you have 15% tEV. If you were to end up getting it AI and lose, you would cash for 2.6%; a net lose of 12.4% tEV. On the other hand if you win, your tEV goes up to 21%, a difference of only 6%. This discrepancy is because the chips of an MTT have a non-linear value. If the blinds are at a higher level than I assumed, this disparity is even greater.

As far as your dilemma, 3-bet shoving a 35BB stack is unexploitable, but certainly not the optimal play. If you raise to 9BB, are you prepared to call and AI 4-bet, given the information gained from the last paragraph? The villain’s options should be fold or 4-bet, but what if he just calls? A call would set up an SPR of just over 1, and would be very awkward for an AK hand. AK is too strong to fold in this situation, so as a default, it seems that just calling would be your best option.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 08:56 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
This is so cool. I learned a lot

Thank you very much for your analysis

That is why i love Hand Analysis this is where improvement begins

Lessons learned
 

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