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Same tournament as before . Was this a bad or good fold?

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Same tournament as before . Was this a bad or good fold? - Mon Jun 18, 2012, 07:32 PM
(#1)
nickthebrit9's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Hi I will have to find some info on the other players

So still a $1 for 45 SNG this time not near bubble this was earlier in the tournament and again im in the big blind(I folded A3o)

But should I have called ?

Ambereto shoves his 5.5 bb allin UTG and had been playing average VP 25% very small sample
Hasshuss calls allin for his 5bb he too VP25% very small sample

heres the one that surprised me

djmk9419 calls but he was a manaic reliable sample VP 43% over 46 hands

So im in big blind with A3 offsuit....have to call 910 to win 3535 so getting nearly 4/1 so only need 20.5% equity

PokerStars Hand #81836535741: Tournament #573432871, $0.91+$0.09 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2012/06/12 4:20:16 WET [2012/06/11 23:20:16 ET]
Table '573432871 5' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: nickthebrit9 (4450 in chips)
Seat 2: ambarito (1110 in chips)
Seat 3: dimondimarik (5256 in chips)
Seat 4: elguaje28 (6490 in chips)
Seat 5: MixpokerArt (2680 in chips)
Seat 7: hasshuss (1015 in chips)
Seat 8: djmk9419 (6265 in chips)
Seat 9: checkraiise (2690 in chips)
checkraiise: posts small blind 100
nickthebrit9: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nickthebrit9 [3h Ad]
ambarito: raises 910 to 1110 and is all-in
dimondimarik: folds
elguaje28: folds
MixpokerArt: folds
hasshuss: calls 1015 and is all-in
djmk9419: calls 1110
checkraiise: folds
nickthebrit9: folds

If you need their exact hands I have them - I havent run this in pokerstove - but I guess I only needed to be ahead of the manaics range which A3o should be I think

Also becaue the manaic still has chips as I do then is this a bit different ?

Hope somebody will help

Nick
 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 09:59 PM
(#2)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
With A 3os and a comfortable stack I'd chuck in my hand sit back in my seat and move closer to the cash.
:-)
Rob.
 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 10:10 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Nick,

This is a very marginal spot here. It is a big pot which is enticing and a maniac in the pot as well which could be nice, if he's the passive sort.

I think I fold in this spot though.

If you call here the pot is 4k and we only have 3k left behind. Any bet is a commitment to the pot. If I was playing here I would probably shove allin to get the mainiac out of the hand and to forfeit his equity in the pot. At that stage we still need to bet 2 hands that people wanted to play for stacks with. I don't think A3 plays well enough vs those two ranges to show a big profit.

The 20% equity is not really relevant since the action does not finish here. We still see the flop and the likelihood of getting to show down or winning without putting more money in is slim.

The other consideration is you position in the tourney. You have a nice comfortable stack and no need to risk it in a very marginal situation here.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 10:23 PM
(#4)
nickthebrit9's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Hi u2

Thanks so I made a correct laydown ...so im 1/2

I would have turned a wheel but one guy would have had nut flushdraw

I would have won the pot by getting lucky

hands were AKs
A9o i think
Q8s

Thanks

Nick
 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 10:32 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Nick!

One thing that you'll need to learn is to not be results oriented. The correct way to look at a situation is by the given odds, reads, etc... then to make the best possible decision based on all of it.

I'm mucking A3 here too, becuase Ax will play much better against less players and with 3 all-in's, I could be easily dominated, which makes my hand much, much worse.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jun 18, 2012, 11:34 PM
(#6)
nickthebrit9's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Thank you....I better not post next one kind of a bad beat ....I raise 5 handed AK loose aggro reriases allin I pause then call he turns over AA..he had been going allin with A8s
 
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Tue Jun 19, 2012, 01:39 AM
(#7)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by nickthebrit9 View Post
Thank you....I better not post next one kind of a bad beat ....I raise 5 handed AK loose aggro reriases allin I pause then call he turns over AA..he had been going allin with A8s
Cooler,NOT a bad beat.

The A3o hand is an auto-fold with 2 all-ins and a call in front of you. Always. JWK is right in this hand and in you other post with the KQ hand at the bubble that you would have made a boat by the river---you are being far too results oriented in your thinking.

The key to being a profitable player at the tables is getting into +EV situations and taking advantage of them as often as possible. Besides what the dry numbers of Pokerstove can tell us (if you haven't downloaded Pokerstove by the way do so immediately---it's free,takes only a few minutes and is a great learning and self analysis tool...) in every game that you play as you go along you need proper BR management so that you can "push the envelope" a little when a marginal spot comes up that DOES have good implied odds for you.

The KQo spot is EXACTLY that. Forget how the hand turned out. That's not the question. The question is whether or not this is a spot that will be profitable for us over the long run. We CAN'T go bust here,we CAN eliminate 2 players,bust the money bubble and take ourselves from being competitive with checkraiise for 4th/5th spots with 8 left to being the 2nd biggest stack with 6 left. That's a big,big difference.

So in that case if we're exercising proper BR management before we even sit down we can even afford to stretch our range out a little and call in marginally -EV spots because the implied odds are so good here.

It's a game theory thing. I.E....

What's our first goal to be accomplished in this spot? To make it into the money. Are we hurting our chances of doing that here even if we call with some -EV holdings? No,not really because we still have enough left behind to be ahead of 3 stacks even if MixPokerArt wins the pot and elguaje28 beats us for the side pot. So we've taken a hit but we're still OK.

What's our second goal to be attacked in this spot? Build our stack to try and be a factor and take this sucker down. If we win in this spot we greatly advance our cause in this goal.

So if we miss it hurts us but doesn't cripple us by any means. If we win we greatly increase our chances of shipping this 45 man,or at worst of making a top money finish (we're guaranteed no worse than 6th if we win already...).

That's a good implied odds spot so if we're keeping good BR principles in place BEFORE we ever sit down then the range of slightly -EV hands we can afford to call with widens a little.

The A3o spot you showed here is just never really going to be a good spot for us. Fold and forget here.

Hope that helps.

Last edited by Moxie Pip; Tue Jun 19, 2012 at 01:44 AM..
 
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Tue Jun 19, 2012, 07:40 PM
(#8)
nickthebrit9's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Hi Moxie

Yes I meant cooler ...and yes your reply is helpful well mainly

Afterwards after that game i mean I remember thinking most of the points you said but I was only thinking and my thinking can be wrong

I do use bankroll management so my question is how can taking -EV be a good thing ? as earlier you stated you need to practice good EV+ to make profits in the long run

It seemed like one of those games if I had of called with bad hands I would have won...but this is just luck so not +EV

being 5th out of 13left with 25 big blinds do you raise fold AKo @a 5 handed table versus a manaic ?

Thanks again

Nick
 
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Tue Jun 19, 2012, 07:50 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Nick!

There can be situations where taking a small, marginal -EV situation is a good thing, as there are really two things to look at. Chip EV (could be a small negative) but tEV (tourney EV due to being guaranteed a higher payout if one or 2 opps bust, could be positive).

This will normally only be at the end stages of a tourney, but could possibly happen (say 8 left in a 45 with 2 prior all-ins, where my stack was larger than the others, or 4 left and 2 prior all-ins with a larger stack than at least the smaller one). I would want the larger stack, as if only 1 of them busts, I still move up the pay ladder (to get ITM or to get to 3rd) as since if I bust.. I had more chips than the other that gets KO'd. I would basically have to be guaranteed to beat the smaller stack, so that they don't win the hand and I lose to the 3rd player.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Jun 19, 2012, 08:26 PM
(#10)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by nickthebrit9 View Post
Hi Moxie

Yes I meant cooler ...and yes your reply is helpful well mainly

Afterwards after that game i mean I remember thinking most of the points you said but I was only thinking and my thinking can be wrong

I do use bankroll management so my question is how can taking -EV be a good thing ? as earlier you stated you need to practice good EV+ to make profits in the long run

It seemed like one of those games if I had of called with bad hands I would have won...but this is just luck so not +EV

being 5th out of 13left with 25 big blinds do you raise fold AKo @a 5 handed table versus a manaic ?

Thanks again

Nick

Basically exactly what JW said here. It can be a slightly -EV spot on just the equity part of the equation alone but there will be spots where you can play those slightly -EV spots profitably because the implied odds kick in some extra equity. Tournament EV is such a factor.

You want to be disciplined with your BR and know that you have a skill edge on most of the players when you try to stretch the boundaries like this but if you can say those 2 things that gives you the ability to "open up" your game a little and move away from more textbook play.

The KQo spot and what you would call with hand is exactly that kind of a spot. Personally I'm willing to call wider than most would advise in a spot like that because of the parameters we discussed earlier---miss all the way and I'm still OK,win at least the side pot and I'm fine,win the hand flat out and I'm primed to try and take this SNG down.

See? 3 possible outcomes---1 is VERY good for us,1 is essentially a wash (and we are ITM on that wash...) and the worst outcome is a hit yes,but we are far from crippled because of it.

This is a spot where not only the money in the middle has to factor in but also the effective stack sizes---we CANNOT bust here,not even close...we CAN bust both of them (which gets us ITM and 1 ladder climb to boot...) and greatly increase our chances to win this SNG. Our chances to win it aren't hugely decreased if we miss because we're still sitting in a mix of the middle stacks,just a little lighter is all.

THAT is a good gamble spot so,depending on reads of course,I'm willing to roll the dice with a pretty wide range in this spot. If I'm capable of putting one of them at least on a mid to low pair I'm calling with ANY 2 cards that I think are overs.

These spots don't come along every game,far from it. If you play a fair amount of games a day you'll probably see them a couple/few times though. And you have to weigh the balance of the good versus the bad realistically---...

Does missing cripple or severely put a crimp in my chances of cashing here? If yes then pass.

Does hitting greatly improve my chances of winning or taking down a top 2-3 finish here? If no then pass.

It's not an exact science and it's a bit of a "feel" thing at times to but yes---there can be slightly -EV spots that are profitable to take shots at over the long run because of extra factors like the effective stack sizes (and not just the ones involved in the hand...).
 
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Wed Jun 20, 2012, 02:11 AM
(#11)
nickthebrit9's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 17
hi u2

oh ok now i see thanks

I think the part I need to work on is the reads then....but im still unsure about this

How can I best learn something like this?

For example its a bit easier to put a tight player on a % range but how about a loose aggro player?

Is the best way to just watch and learn from experience or is there a better way plz?

I must also learn that ICM

i dont intend t be results orientaed but smetimes ido fall into that trap I guess and yes i do have pokerstove

nite

Nick

Last edited by nickthebrit9; Wed Jun 20, 2012 at 02:13 AM..
 
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Wed Jun 20, 2012, 09:58 AM
(#12)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Nick!

Dave has some videos on ranging opponents. Take a look at number 3, 39, 36, 41, 42.

This would be the best place for you to start.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jun 20, 2012, 04:40 PM
(#13)
nickthebrit9's Avatar
Since: Dec 2009
Posts: 17
Hi John thanx man Much appreciated Not seen them yet but will in next few days

and thanx to Dave too
 

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