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Should I shove???

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Should I shove??? - Wed Jun 20, 2012, 06:45 AM
(#1)
seancoppo's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 23




Just been going over some of my hands from the past couple of 45man SNGs and come across this hand. A couple of things I need advice on really.

So the blind levels are 100/200 and I have just under 20 BB. The action gets folded round to me so I min raise, firstly is this the right thing to do??

Villian 7 then shoves, now this is where I become unsure of how to play the hand. The reason for this is that most of the time I would be happy with my fold, however looking back on the stats I have for this Villian, it becomes apparent that he plays just under 50% of his starting hands pre-flop, and his aggresion percentage is off the scale!!

I ran the hands using the odds calculator and with these stats in mind, it makes me just under 60% favourite to win the pot. So my question is: If I shove, in the long run, will this be profitable???

Many Thanks
 
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Wed Jun 20, 2012, 10:22 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi seancoppo!

At the 100/200 blind level, that's normally where I switch from making my open raises 3BB to 2.5BB, so I'll raise to 500 (2.5BB). I start at 3BB, then at this or the next level when antes kick in, lower it to 2.5BB, then when it hits 1k/2k plus the ante, lower it to 2.2BB. I also will add 1BB for each limper that is in the pot before me.

In determining, whether or not to call, these are the considerations that I'll use. It will cost me 1830 to call into a pot that will be 4860 if the SB drops (37.7%). However, if the SB stays, then I'll basically be playing for all my chips, so it will be 3489 into a pot that will be 1008 (34.9%).

The key now is.... will the SB call a shove?

If I can isolate the loose opp that shoved, if they really had a 50%VPIP, then I'm a 61% favorite and would shove, as the hand equity is much higher than the pot equity. Against one opp, it would be a +EV shove if the opp was even playing only a top 10% hand.

However, if there are two opps in the hand (which is a real possibility), then the range for the SB needs to be very narrow, as they need to like their hand in a 3-way pot, not just against the loose opp. To get my hand equity for this, I'll use a top 5% hand for this opp. I now only have a 27.9% hand equity, even using a top 50% hand for the loose opp. This is much lower than the pot equity, so it would be an easy fold.

The read on the SB, which was not provided, is the key to the hand. If they would fold to a shove and re-shove... then it is a profitable play to shove. If the SB would call, then it is a -EV play to shove and I could easily be knocked out of the tourney.

Without a read on the SB and having a very playable chip stack if I muck, I'll err on the side of caution, fold, and look for a better spot to get my chips into, especially when I'm in position.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jun 20, 2012, 12:14 PM
(#3)
seancoppo's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 23
Thanks for the advice John. I would have too pull my data up about the small blind, but because I'm fairly new to the game, I did'nt even factor in about the SB, which must sound bad lol.
I suppose this is how i'll improve my game in the long run though.

Once again thanks for your help on this hand, I'm sure you'll be hearing from me again soon.
 

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