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Variance is hitting me ...

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Variance is hitting me ... - Wed Jun 27, 2012, 09:43 AM
(#1)
hbhuang341's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 79
Hi guys,

I played a lot of sng 90 man 1.5. I played like 4 months and i cashed a lot of times,but the last 2-3 weeks,i didnt cash,took a lot of bad beats.Aces,king,queens were cracked by marginal hands etc .
I dont know what to do,it's such a worst feeling ...any tips guys ?

thanks !
 
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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 09:57 AM
(#2)
wiltshireman's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 1,568
(Moderator)
Hi hbhuang341

What your experiencing happens to all of us from time to time, it's just part of the game.

For my part I make sure that my BR can handle the varience so that i don't feel under any pressure and can play my best game in the knowledge that AA QQ etc are going to get busted now and again.

If things really get to me i just take a break away from the felt for a few days, if nothing else i come back feeling refreshed and ready to take on the challenges again

Im sure you will return to your winning ways, just be patient.

Regards

Tony


Moderator
 
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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 10:33 AM
(#3)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
+1 here. Stay with it and play solid poker. Two weeks is alot i know but I am just coming out of my worst bad variance ever! 1500 games worth over 3 months! Sickening but your only choice is to quit! It will pass so huang in there! LOL

Gidee Up!
 
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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:02 AM
(#4)
hbhuang341's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 79
Well i dont think to quit,i have a lot of fun in that game,i play tight and solid,kinda ABC poker but more agg and i have reads on my opponents etc ,but my problem is that my br is sinking like a boat.
Do you guys know how to hendle my bankroll ? I lost around 30% of my br and it will worser i think.
 
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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:04 AM
(#5)
hbhuang341's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 79
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
+1 here. Stay with it and play solid poker. Two weeks is alot i know but I am just coming out of my worst bad variance ever! 1500 games worth over 3 months! Sickening but your only choice is to quit! It will pass so huang in there! LOL

Gidee Up!
I wrote it wrong,i just made some cashes,but that is not enough to safe my br
 
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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 11:05 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Hbuang.

The suggestion I'd make is examine your play.

Depending upon the amount you played, 4 months should probably give you a reasonable idea of your ability, but if you are only playing 1 or 2 games a day, that is still a pretty small overall sample size. So first Q is: How many games does that 4 month span cover?

Once you've looked at your sample size, you have a little bit more meat to chew on...

At that point, look for any skews in your results: long strings of wins, or deep runs especially.

If you are seeing an inordinate amount of deep runs on a small sample size, your true ability may not be quite what you think...

Now if your sample size is large enough to let you think there is a reasonable expectation that you can beat the games for a profit, you still have some things to examine...

Look at whether or not your play decisions have been changed by your current spate of "run bad".

Post some hands in the HA forums to let the community give you input. Talk to poker friends. Talk to any poker mentors you might have.

Do not just look at the big hands you lost, but also look to see if you might be playing a few more marginal hands oop, maybe over playing draws, maybe letting more passive play creep into your game. All these can be things that ooze into your game almost unseen, and can turn simple "run bad" into "run bad + PLAY BAD".

If after all of this you've not spotted anything you can change, just know that poker is a LONG TERM game, and part of the long term is the fact that sometimes bad players get lucky.

If you;ve done everything to ensure YOU are playing your absolute best, this too shall pass...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Wed Jun 27, 2012, 09:03 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
There's this really good book on handling variance and other stuff, called The Mental Game of Poker - it's like one of the top-selling poker books online, and everybody swears by it



I used to read it a lot when I was playing SNGs ... I had a downswing that lasted over 2 months :/
 

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