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10NL FR, split pots

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10NL FR, split pots - Sat Jun 30, 2012, 08:31 AM
(#1)
magiciantom's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 61


Info on villain (121 hands):
VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF
30/24/5,0/10,0

My pre-flop, flop and turn line were pretty standard imo. By the river, i thought he had AK, KK, or QQ. If
KK and QQ are probably going to fold, can you bet bigger and hope AK will fold and you take the entire pot, or should i bet small like i did and hope KK and QQ will call?




Info on villain (287 hands):
VPIP/PFR/3bet/AF
10/8/2,7/1,5

Pretty much the same spot. I think he would have probably 3bet AK pre-flop but fold AJ. Should i have bet bigger and hoped he folded AQ, or should i have been afraid of AK, slowplayed tens (or maybe nines) full?
 
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Sun Jul 01, 2012, 12:04 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi MagicianTom!

The first hand:

If this were a full ring table, 30% would be relatively loose, but if his 30% VPIP was generated mainly on hands at a short handed full ring table the opp would be pretty middle of the road. His agression, especially in position, is pretty high though.

As such, flatting the 3bet pre with AK, and then checking the flop to at least give him a chance to fire 1 bullet is not such a bad line at all. I do think however, your ranging of the opp is a bit TIGHT (you put him on just KK/QQ/AK), given that he will 3bet 5% of the time, and the fact he does have position.

In this spot we can expect him to likely 3bet the full 5% of his range, and that would likely include: AJs+, KQs, AKo, pp 99+. Over your flop check, an opp this aggro would probably bet any pp over the 8, any A hit, and any flush draw he'd flop. It would depend upon YOUR image though, something you do not provide us with, to say whether an immediate C/R for value would elicit a call, or whether this opp might try a strong semi bluff move over a C/R.

With the SPR going to the flop of just over 5, you could make a case for stacking off with top/top were he to raise a C/R, given that you have roughly 83% equity vs the likely bet range by the opp if you check. Please note, I am NOT saying you'd have 83% equity if you C/R'ed and the opp RAISED; in that case his likely range would be much tighter than what he'd conceivably 3bet you pre. But I do think with the aggression profile the opp shows here, and depending upon the image you've portrayed in your play, there is a CHANCE he might perceive your hand a something like KK/QQ, and shove on you with a lesser A, a KQ type flush draw, or simply as a strong bluff move he believes will get a fold.

Against that possible range for someone with high aggression, I'd not really be afraid of being behind a lot here if a C/R were raised, so with an SPR on the high end of a range calling for a stack off with top/top, I think I'd rather trigger my move to extract value EARLIER, before a potential action killer card comes, or before a card falls which beats me. Afterall, you gave him 1 chance to fire his bullet, so as long as you are not so TIGHT a C/R is only going to get called by better and fold out worse, I think vs an aggro opp that is what I'd do here.

The operative thought per your question though is that you are NOT betting to induce FOLDS with your hand on this flop. This is a hand that you WANT to get action from, so trying to configure your bet sizing to induce chop folds is going to be quite hard. If you do have a chop situation, and you have a hand situation you can find justification for stacking off on, chances are pretty strong your opponent will find the same justification with a chop hand. So betting in order to try to fold out his chop can cost you a lot more if he happens to hold something that makes your hand a good, but second best, holding.

The second hand:

You really are not going to be able to fold AQ out of the hand of even an opp this tight on the flop, no matter how you size your bet. Sure, this guy is a nit, but if he was willing to call your UTG raise UTG +1 with a decent A in his hand, then why would he consider mucking that A to a bigger bet by you when he flops trips?

Normally in multi way pots I'd prefer to bet more along the lines of 2/3rds pot (at least) on continuation, but given the pretty dry nature of this flop and the very tight opp UTG +1, I'd have no problem with your just under half pot bet on the flop here.

When the snug villain only calls though, I think I'd consider check/calling the turn when I pick up the nut flush draw though. This gives him a chance to perhaps bet lesser A's, or KK/QQ/JJ type hands he may think are best on a paired A flop, and if I am behind something like AK I still have outs on a check/call line. With that said though, I cannot see your turn lead or sizing as a mistake, simply because those lesser A's are probably not folding anyway, and YOU are probably not folding to a bet if the opp does have AK.

Again though, this is a spot where you are thinking of betting for VALUE, not one where you should be trying to bet off chop hands. Betting more here is likely to only result in you LOSING more if the opp does have AK or TT, and it is less likely to get you the calls from hands you'd really want to be calling you.

So do not "value own" yourself in spots that might be a chop, simply because you want to try to fold out his half of the pot. There might be TIME to do that, like against uber nitty opps who will tend to make big lay downs, but the bigger the hand seems to be, the less likely even its will be to fold their half of a chop.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


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