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$1.10 PSO Series NLHE

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$1.10 PSO Series NLHE - Tue Jul 03, 2012, 10:56 PM
(#1)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
This was just after the bubble had burst and was only a few hands in to the new table so I had little info on the villain but know he had been chip leader for some time but not gaining many chips for a while.



Not sure if I should have raised more pre? and also now think my river shove was stupid since I didn't bet the turn to find out if he made the flush. I just never put him on a hand like that, I was thinking small pocket or some marginal hand that plays ok usually. I think the turn is my mistake, opions appreciated.
 
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Wed Jul 04, 2012, 03:50 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi fadyen!

With AJ preflop, I'd make my standard raise, which for this blind level is to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper. Since there is 1 limper, I'll bet 3.5BB or 2100.

The flop brings three undercards and the opp checks to me. I"ve got two choices, I can check the flop for pot control or make a c-bet. If I make a c-bet, I want to make my standard bet size of 1/2 pot here.

The turn gives me top pair, but completes the flush and the opp checks to me again. Since they called both preflop and the flop, I'm going to check here for pot control, as I'm not sure that I have the best hand with top pair. If I had checked the flop for pot control, I would have made a 1/2 pot c-bet on the turn with top pair.

The river gives me trip J's and now.. the opp that has been passive the entire hand leads into me for 3600. Normally when a passive opp all of a sudden leads the river, they have a made hand. I would expect them to have flopped a straight, turned a flush, Jx or 2 pair here. Since I can beat a few of these hands... but my hand does have showdown value, I'm going to just call the opp on the river here.

By betting less on the flop, the opp was really getting the correct odds to call to their flush/overcard pair. They had to call 1800 into a pot that would be 8500 (21.2%). From their view point, they had 9 outs to the flush and 3 more outs to the K, so they had 12 outs, which is 24% equity to see the turn. Their hand equity is higher than the pot equity, so they should call the bet.
If a 1/2 pot bet had been made, then it would have been 1/2 pot into a pot that will be 2X what it was... so the pot equity would have been 25%... which is slightly higher than the opp's hand equity.. making calling on the flop a -EV play for them.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jul 04, 2012, 10:47 AM
(#3)
Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
Thanks, that does help. I think I checked the turn because I was worried he made his flush and planned to get to showdown cheaply since I had some showdown value, but then changed my mind. If I have a plan I should stick to it unless I have a real reason to change it.
 

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