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Right play?

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Right play? - Fri Jul 06, 2012, 04:38 AM
(#1)
RomeWu's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 62
$0.91+$0.09 USD 45 man Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600)Final table on the bubble. This is always a shove for me with less then 10 bb at the final table, but i always run in to a big hand ,please advise.





Last edited by RomeWu; Fri Jul 06, 2012 at 04:49 AM..
 
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Fri Jul 06, 2012, 07:23 AM
(#2)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
hi romewu, on a good point you are making final tables, this alone shows yourself that in fact you can do it.

Remember coming first place is not only winning,7 places paid so if youy finished in 7th technically thats a win for your ego.

A lower stack at the table did you need to push at that time,could you have seen another 2-3 rotations of the table and maybe some1 else would loose first.

Ok, another point i would like to say to you, is ask yourself a question, what sort of game did you play for the entire tournement.

Could you have took a few early risks and then in fact be sitting there with a bigger stack?

Some tourneys are lost and won before the final table think about that!
 
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Fri Jul 06, 2012, 08:55 AM
(#3)
seancoppo's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 23
Hi Romewu,

I think this is quite a hard decision to make. I personally would probly wait as there is a lot of players still to act but I can totally see why you shoved because of blinds and your stack. It's one of those situations that comes up a lot for me aswell. Pretty close call to make, maybe consider aswell stats for that certain villian (If you have any), again I'm only talking from personal experience, but my hud lets me make better decisions the majority of the time.

Good luck anyway mate. might see you at the tables sometime.
 
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Bubble play - Fri Jul 06, 2012, 10:34 AM
(#4)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by RomeWu View Post
$0.91+$0.09 USD 45 man Hold'em No Limit - Level X (300/600)Final table on the bubble. This is always a shove for me with less then 10 bb at the final table, but i always run in to a big hand ,please advise.
Bubble play is always tricky. Table dynamics, and stack sizes, have a lot to do with the way you decide to play the bubble. Understanding ICM for tEV (tournament expected value) is a must, to play optimally. In general, the chips you risk have more equity than the chips you may win, especially on the bubble. That being said, calling an 8BB shove at this point of the tourney requires a much stronger hand than normal, because of the Bubble Factor (BF). BF is a number assigned to relative stack sizes. In short, the middle stacks have the highest BF, and require more caution when playing the bubble, whereas the shorter stacks have a smaller BF (Kill Everyone - Chapter 6 - Prize Pools and Equities).

Without getting into the math of bubble play:
You are one of the shorter stacks, with the blinds approaching, without any reads. Your BF is smaller than the medium stacks (which is a plus). The dead money in the pot is around 30% of your stack. The majority of the time you will take down the pot without a showdown, increasing your tEV around 20%. The times you get called (mostly from the BB) you’ll still have 40% equity vs. a 10% range.

I advocate shoving in this scenario. However if you were one of the middle stacks, with the two larger stacks still to act, I would fold; especially because of the two smaller stacks which are more vulnerable on the bubble. As a medium stack you are risking a higher tEV, as compared to a short stacks smaller tEV.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Fri Jul 06, 2012, 11:33 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi RomeWu!

Since this is a 45-man, the top 7 get paid, so this is the exact bubble. With it being the bubble, the first thing that I need to look at is my chip stack to see if I'm the lowest (I'm not, but close).
How were the opps left to act behind me acting? By the final table, I should have a read on how they were playing. Are they aggressive, passive, etc?

From middle position with KQo here, I'm going to muck and look for a better spot, either with a better hand or more likely, when I'm in position. With 5 players left to act behind me, if I shove, I'm pretty certain that anyone that calls would have a better hand (Ax or pkt pair) and there are only 2 stacks that are smaller than me... so that means that my tourney life will most likely be on the line.
Near the bubble, I want to be up against smaller stacks or to have a made hand or to be in late position. Since I can't guarantee any of these, I'm folding.

If I was say on the bubble and it folded to me, I'd be much more likely to push, but not from a much earlier position.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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