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25c/45man (none turbo) AK always utg

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25c/45man (none turbo) AK always utg - Sun Jul 08, 2012, 11:49 AM
(#1)
Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71


At this level should I take his donk bet as his only option to win the pot, or that he hit?
only 15 hands on villian 27/7/- but you can assume his range is quite wide
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 02:31 PM
(#2)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Jonny9691,

I think you're right. I think a donk bet here looks like he's hit. To determine the likelihood the stat or read we are interested in is his aggression or passiveness in this instance.

Apart from directly have his aggression factor selected in your HUD we can determine it a few other ways.

1) Limp calling. This is a passive action. Not a strong hand but one they don't want to fold.

2) VPIP 27% PFR 7%. The difference between these to stats give you how often he's taking a passive action. Times that he's putting in chips but not as a raiser. So in this instance 20% or the time which is alot.

So given I think our read of passiveness is good. He's very unlikely to all of a sudden be aggressively bluffing. So I think safe to assume he's hit in this instance.

Given he's hit do we still want to continue with overs? No I don't think so, two of our outs would complete a flush and possibly prevent us getting stacks in. Also all our outs are scare cards to a pair of Qs so our implied odds are pretty bad. We are only 13% to hit one of our overs on the next card before we may have to potentially put more money in.

So given all these factors I think your read is good and this fold is good.

Nice work!

Cheers Andy




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