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STT $ 1,50, 22, push or fold?

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STT $ 1,50, 22, push or fold? - Sun Jul 08, 2012, 04:38 PM
(#1)
ahcrata's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 40
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

A lot of limpers thought they could have some pockets pairs and did a fold. Maybe I must push anyway. What do you think about?
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 05:43 PM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
its hard to say without knowing the reads on your table.

If you raise what do you think they will do?

if you shove all in what will they do?

did you have any thought of i could call here and see if i flop a 2?

Grade b


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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 08:34 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi ahcrata!

The first thing to remember when playing poker, is to not be results oriented.

With 22 from the sb, there are 3 limpers in front of me. If I want to setmine, I try to have at least 15BB from my stack and the opp's stacks, so that I get the correct price to do it. Here, I have about 8BB. Since a std raise is basically all of my chips, I either need to shove or fold. Calling, then folding to a flop without a 2, is going to be too large of a drain to my chip stack, so I would not want to consider this as an option.

How have the other players been playing? Would they fold to a shove? How am I perceived at the table.... have I been playing tight or loose or had to showdown any bad hands or been shoving multiple times?
The reason that I ask this is that with 22, the best situation that I'd be in against two overcards or I could be dominated.

If my reads on the opps would be that all would fold or that I'd only get one caller, then I'd be tempted to shove here. If there is a possibility that multiple opps would call a shove (where my hand equity would be considerably less), then I want to muck and look for a place to shove when I can be IN position and not out of position.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 01:45 AM
(#4)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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Hi
I don't dispute at all what John says in the previous reply... can't argue with the Math. Shove or fold in this spot is a winning strategy over the long-haul.
However... I would certainly have called. Why? Well, you have about 8BB and are in the SB so you have only half a BB more to make the call. That is cheap when weighed against the possible returns of hitting a set. It doesn't make good math sense, yes, true. But half a BB doesn't really effect your stack one way or another at this stage... if you shove a few hands later on with half a BB less, no real difference. I think it is worth a call here because if you hit your set then you could likely double up.
I wouldn't shove unless I was pretty sure everyone was going to fold. 22 can hold up, of course, but it isn't likely to.
Basically in this situation I would just take a punt for the extra half a BB and call, because the difference it makes to your stack is so minimal. If I don't hit a 2 on the flop then I am folding to any bet.

Last edited by SothAAAA; Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 01:50 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 02:17 AM
(#5)
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Hi SothAAAA!

One thing that you'll find the more that you play hold'em is that one of, if not the largest chip leak over time that players have is from completing the small blind. This should be the position at the table that a player will want to play the absolute least number of hands from, as the rest of the hand after the flop is played out of position. I try to always raise or fold from it.

example of how a player will lose chips from it:
say I'm holding 22 in the SB against another player in position.
If I miss the flop and check (which will happen 87% of the time), the opp should make a bet here. Since I'm out of position, I know that I missed and can fold (losing a full BB, instead of 1/2 of a BB). I also have the problem of.... do I have the best hand? If I'm the opp here and have the SB check, I'm betting the flop whether I hit OR miss. The SB will think I hit a part of the flop and will then muck the best hand (losing a full BB instead of 1/2 the BB if the SB folds preflop).

Completing from the SB, especially with a small chip stack, is a play that I want to avoid as it is a large chip leak, as I won't be able to win back in the small % that I hit what I will lose in the large % of the times that I miss... so it's a -EV play overtime.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 10:29 AM
(#6)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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hi John
Thanks for the reply, hon. Yes, you are right. Trying to defend the SB is a losing strategy in the long term. Better to lose half a BB per round than a full BB.
The only time I play my SB is if I actually have a good hand that I would play in a slightly earlier position, or if everyone else has folded and I think I can take the pot from the BB.
In this situation though I would call. My thinking is that with only 7 or 8 BB left in my stack I am shoving with my next decent hand regardless. With a small pair in the SB why not risk that half a BB to try and hit a set on the flop (and you know there is always the possibility that the board will check down and my pair will win anyway) ? I get that that it isn't good math... but do you think it makes any real difference to your stack and position in the tourney?
Ok, if you miss the flop and have to fold to a bet then in a few hands time you are shoving with 7 and a half BBs instead of 8 BBs... for me that isn't enough of a difference to warrant a fold.
Would you ever call here?
 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 10:46 AM
(#7)
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Hi SothAAAA!

If the stacks were deeper (everyone had 15BB+ in their stacks, including me), then I'm calling here with 22 to setmine in a heartbeat.

With less than 10BB in a cash tourney, I'm more looking to shove/fold, to be able to maximize my fold equity.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 10:57 AM
(#8)
ahcrata's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 40
If I take account the pot odds and the odds. Is not a good call? Since the odds of a set on flop is 7.5:1?
 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 11:52 AM
(#9)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
I am going to disagree with John on this hand. There is already 9 times your completion bet in the pot. That means you only need 450 to be put into the pot post flop to get your 15 times necessary for profitable set mining. Since you are the effective stack and will have over twice that and there are four possible contributers, getting enough action post flop is almost a sure thing.

Good luck
Doug


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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 03:15 PM
(#10)
Embrangle's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 17
Although you perhaps are getting implied odds to make set mining +EV, I think it is very unlikely that it is more +EV than shoving. Both in terms of cEV and $EV.

Assume when we shove we get called 20% of the time and our hand has 40% equity against a callers hand.

Then our cEV is (675*0.80)+(1045*0.2*0.4)+(-1045*0.2*0.6)+(450*0.2) = 588.2

If we complete from the sb and fold if we miss our set or assume we win an unrealistically large average of 4000 chips if we hit our set our cEV is (-75*0.87)+(4000*0.13)=454.75

So even assuming an unrealistically large cEV for setmining it still falls short of the rather more realistic cEV for shoving.

Of course we should be thinking in $EV rather than cEV since this is an STT, but I can't do ICM calcs off the top of my head.

I would be very surprised if shoving is not optimal for maximising $EV.

Last edited by Embrangle; Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 04:44 PM.. Reason: Calced wrong
 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 04:03 PM
(#11)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
I think you will be called much more often than 20% of the time with 3 limpers and those stack sizes. However if you do have a table where limp then fold to a raise is the norm, by all means shove.

Doug


3 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 04:56 PM
(#12)
Embrangle's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 17
Suppose we get called 50% of the time with 45% equity:

(675*0.5)+(1045*0.5*0.45)+(-1045*0.5*0.55)+(450*0.5) = 510.25

Suppose if we setmine we earn the maximum of 4480 every time:

(-75*0.87)+(4480*0.13) = 517.15

Realistically the cEV for setmining is going to be way lower. Also my approximations for shoving cEV don't take into account getting called by 2+ villains, but that would have a relatively small effect since it is going to be quite rare so I chose to ignore it.

Last edited by Embrangle; Mon Jul 09, 2012 at 05:07 PM..
 

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