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STT $ 1,50, AJs, Bad Call?

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STT $ 1,50, AJs, Bad Call? - Sun Jul 08, 2012, 04:58 PM
(#1)
ahcrata's Avatar
Since: Feb 2012
Posts: 40
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Think this call is not good. Maybe AQ+ is correct. What do you think about?
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 05:30 PM
(#2)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Ouch. Did you have any reads?
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 05:34 PM
(#3)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
you were a favorite when you got the money in. And with the blinds as high as they are can you really wait for a better spot? after all your trying to get into get top 3.
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 06:46 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Ahcrata.

I am not at my home computer, so I do not have poker stove to "show" you the data, but my gut is telling me that unless this opp has KQo as the absolute BOTTOM END of his shove range on a 5BB stack in EP, you probably had the equity to call.

You are somewhere north of 60% equity vs the actual hand shown down, and even as around a 40% DOG to his entire range, the dead money in the blinds (if they fold out) probably gives you the right price to call on AJs here. With 5BB left in your stack, how long can you expect to WAIT for a monster?

Keep in mind you give us no idea where you are at in terms of ITM, nor do you give structure info, but unless this guy is an uber nit and you are right on the bubble, this feels like a call all day long.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 08:33 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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home now!


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.858% 37.69% 05.17% 60659036 8324061.50 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 57.142% 51.97% 05.17% 83649417 8324061.50 { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo }

I included this range as it incorporates all the hands (pretty much) in the same grouping as KQo. As I thought, you are not "ahead" of this range, but with the dead money in you are getting right aobut 1.3 to 1 to call. That means you "need" only about 43.5% equity to break even on the call even if the guy is a nit and KQo is the absolute bottom of his shove range this short. You have about 42.8% so even 1 "extra" hand in his range gives you the price to call, and your stack size (as long as you cannot itm without playing a hand) probably "demands" you take an underneath spot, so long as the price warrants it.

hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jul 08, 2012 at 08:36 PM..
 
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Sun Jul 08, 2012, 08:39 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Oh, and by the way...

You have 61.8% vs all combo's of KQo.

Yes, those numbers ARE knowable without poker stove, but it always good to back check after the fact! ;-)


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