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nl 10c-25c busted draws

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nl 10c-25c busted draws - Mon Jul 09, 2012, 12:38 PM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=620720F979

hi guys this is the way i loose a lot of chips, i see other people hitting but i seem to miss,

the opp in the pot was playing the most hands,but seemed an able player.

is this sort of play to fishy?

should i have mucked preflop?
 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 01:32 PM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi Holdemace,

few points as this hand is played you are sitting with just under 39BB, this in its self is going to be screaming out to the sharks at the table.

Your in Middle position and the guy (gal) UTG with 138 bb stack standard raises.

What can you beat with your ATs that you think he would play here?

As to playy on the flop and turn just if the flush comes in he might play you off but will he is he going to freeze up with 3rd flush card on the board.

So think about

What range did he raise UTG with
If an A comes what will i do if i play this hand
will he pay me off if i do hit a flush or st8

now do you want to still play the hand?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jul 09, 2012, 06:42 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi HEA486.

PRE FLOP:

You should realize first thing right off the bat that flatting this raise on your short stack will set up an SPR going to the flop of aorund 4.4 at most (if no one else calls). Being a low SPR, this means an opp will likely be less willing to muck top pair and minor over pair hands to any aggressive action by you, so your ability to bluff or semi bluff goes down unless this player is extremely timid. As you will MISS the flop roughly 2/3rds of the time, the lessened ability of your short stack takes away some of the benefit of your position if you CALL here; this is a better option if you were on deeper money.

The mantra "raise more than call, fold more than raise" becomes even more true when you sit at a full ring table with a short stack, or when you do not reload when your stack has become short. The reason for this is you lack a lot of the power to bluff/semi bluff after calling, because every time you call into a pot you create a situation where it is hard for an opp to fold a marginally strong hand.

Also...

What surety do you have agaisnt this opp (a UTG raiser) than any top pair hand you might flop will be good enough to win? You indicate the opp is somewhat loose, but a reasonably decent player. If that type of player (one who tends to raise to open pretty wide, but is doig so with reason) raises early, you'd probably be better served in 3betting if you choose to play this hand at all. Of course 3betting has dangers too, such as if you get iso'ed on the opp and he simply flats a "monster", so given your short stack, all the possible opp's to act AFTER you (any of whom could raise and price you off a speculative type hand), and the weakness of your holding vs an EP raiser, I think I'd prefer to jsut FOLD ATs here unless I have a strong indication it may be good vs the EP raiser's range.

FLOP:

You flopped a reasonably strong draw here, with the nut flush, the gut shot straight, and the single over card (which may or may not be live). CALLING the opp's C bet is only going to leave you with around a pot and a half left in your stack, and that means you have very little fold equity by calling if the opp elects to fire a 2nd bullet on a blank turn.

If you believe he C bets with a normal frequency, given the strength of your draw I think I'd prefer to jsut raise immediately. When you bet or raise, you have 2 ways to win the pot: either you make the best hand by the river, or you cause a BETTER (but somewhat marginal) hand to FOLD. By calling you can only win if you make the best hand.

A raise to at least $3.50 or $4.00 would clearly indicate to the opp that you hold a strong hand here, and it is unlikely he could 3bet without a big hand. He may not even be able to CALL your raise with something like a medium/weak J, because if he were to do so you next move might be to shove. If he does simply flat your raise though, you have a pretty decent number of youts you might spike on the turn that would make you perfectly willing to get your stack in if he leads a 2nd bullet, and if he doesn't you can elect to take a free card (given the pot would be too large to expect him to fold any hand he might flat a raise on the flop with), and possibly have 2 chances to spike for a lesser cost than what you ended up paying by flatting.

TURN:

In this spot you must call $3.50 for the chance to win $8.01. You are getting a price of about 2.3 to 1 to call. Even if all your outs (including your A) are good, you have about a 32.6% chance to hit, and if your A is not good (quite likely) then you have only around 26% chance. You need aobut 30% to flat this, so it totally devolves upon whether your A is live. If you consider that half the time your A is good, and half the time it isn't, you fall just short of the 30% chance you;d need, at 29.3%. So all in all, without a clear indication your A is good, I think this is not quite the price you want to get to call.

If the pot were SMALLER, or your stack were bigger, you could consider a semi bluff raise here, but after the villian fires 2 bullets and creates an $8.01 pot, he is quite unlikely to fold getting better than 4 to 1 vs your shove.

RIVER:

When your outs do not hit, you make the only reasonable choice vs a UTG raiser who fired 3 bullets; you fold A hi.

The thing is HEA486, I think you palyed this hand VERY passively when your short stack meant you should be adopting a much more aggro line whenever you enter the pot. If you are unsure ATs is a hand you CAN get aggro with, when you sit with a short stack it is probably better to jsut muck this pre flop.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 02:35 AM
(#4)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
The thought occurred to me, while I was reading your post holdem, that you repeatedly ask for advice and never seem to take it. A week ago you were playing one big tourney a week (for about 10 bucks) and now you're asking for advice at 10/25 cash games. This is a big variance from where you were a week ago.

I know you've asked me before not to reply to your threads, but this time I couldn't resist, why do you refuse to take the very good advice that you are given in the forum?? I sometimes wonder if you're just having some fun at our expense (as you admitted doing once before).

Best of luck, you don't seem to have much else going for you.
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:55 PM
(#5)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
thanks j.dean for the great analysis,and yes i agree i should of just mucked preflop,And thx Grade b for your thoughts.

And joy lol i do not mind you posting on my posts,and no im not taking the mick aint you realised yet im just insane lol only joking,,,,,i have learnt most of what people say just look at my results at times when im not practicing something new...
or tilting off cause ....

AS situations change so does my way of thinking,,,, i.e why not give 25c nl ago when i had $95 dollers, i lost went bk down to $48 regrouped and wham $158 dollers lol,so again a time to rethink my strategy and to be honest if i loose will start again with $10 as before and do it again hopefully.
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 01:57 PM
(#6)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
[QUOTE=holdemace486;356729 ....

AS situations change so does my way of thinking,,,, i.e why not give 25c nl ago when i had $95 dollers, i lost went bk down to $48 regrouped and wham $158 dollers lol,so again a time to rethink my strategy and to be honest if i loose will start again with $10 as before and do it again hopefully.[/QUOTE]


Remember HoldemAce $95 is only 4 buy ins as as i like to 6 table ekk can't do it !!


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:45 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
AS situations change so does my way of thinking,,,, i.e why not give 25c nl ago when i had $95 dollers, i lost went bk down to $48 regrouped and wham $158 dollers lol,so again a time to rethink my strategy and to be honest if i loose will start again with $10 as before and do it again hopefully.
WOW!! Hey holdem, that's awesome!! Congrats!!!

With a starting bankroll of $10, having $158 now, that's somewhere ballpark of like a ... 1480% return? (ROI=100*(gains-costs)/costs=1480%). That's the equivalent of like, if you had played the Sunday Storm, and coming in 135th out of 29,000+ people!!

It's almost like a one time big time amount of money, eh?

I've always said you're a great player, so you've earned it!!

BUT ... (here comes the 'but') ... those returns aren't what people have been able to sustain over the long-run. Most of the people who are making thousands of dollars and are buying nice stuff are doing the 24-tabling thing, hours at a time for like a 1.5BB/100 rate ... and they're the top 10%!

Or else people are hitting that one time big time ... and then some of them are choosing to try and build on it. Except that as fast as it went up, it could go down, eh? Everybody remember this guy who won the Sunday Million, tried to double it up, and wound up losing most of it in a matter of days?


***link removed***

So many things you could do with that extra cash ... I guess you could:

1. keep playing and try to build on it
2. keep playing and maybe wind up losing all of it (and then there'd be the tilt and stuff )
3. make a withdrawal of $100 to $148, and go back to the original plan of playing one $10 tourney a week
4. make a withdrawal of $100 to $148, and use some to all of it treat you and your family and friends to a nice meal, some flowers for your honey, some toys for your kids, a cold brew for you and your buddies like pokerpest, etc.

So many options now holdem! Whatcha thinking of doing with it?

Last edited by royalraise85; Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 08:20 PM.. Reason: Link removed
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 09:09 AM
(#8)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
thx sam good stuff there especailly the sunday million winner wow,

I think all ready before i sore your post i used commen sense and i withdrew $100 and back to original plan
 

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