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NLHE 10BB KQo What is the correct play here?

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NLHE 10BB KQo What is the correct play here? - Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:23 AM
(#1)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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ITM, but I had been nursing a short stack for a long time at this point. I had just moved to this table about half a dozen hands ago so I had no real info on any of the villains.
What is the correct play here? Was it right to shove or should I have folded?
(sorry I couldn't figure how to pause at the point of decision... next time hopefully)

Last edited by SothAAAA; Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 06:28 AM..
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 09:43 AM
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RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
I have to confess that at this stage of a tourney with 10-11BB I tend to be looking for any excuse to get my chips into the middle. But having said that I don't think that this is it.

Lacking reads on my opps, facing a raise from the big stack (albeit in a steal position) plus a three bet from SB, K Qos loses its allure for me. The little voices in my ear whispering 'shove, monkey shove' fall silent.

In a nutshell I think that this is one of those hands that relies a lot on fold equity to gain value and here you have none. I would expect to be behind one or both of my opps here and quite possibly dominated, although if this were a micro stakes tourney then I might revise that assessment. I don't think you made a terrible play, I think the SB made a terrible play unless he has some kind of read on the big stack. But I do think that you still have time to wait for a better spot.

Rob.
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 09:57 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi SothAAAA!

Reads here would help, as it would be very helpful to know whether or not this would be a HU pot or a 3-way pot if I did decide to shove (KQ plays much worse in a 3-way pot). Without reads and seeing that the initial raiser has a much larger chip stack, I'd tend to think that they will probably come along and make it a 3-way pot.

To decide what to do, I need to look at calling/shoving/folding. If I call, it will cost me over 1/2 my stack, so this option is ruled out immediately.

If I shove, then it will cost me 16721 chips into a pot that will be 40742 if only the 3-bettor calls (41%) or a pot of 55863 if both call (29.9%).

To get my hand equity, I go to pokerstove and will use a top 15% hand for the bigstack and a much tighter range for the other opp (I'll use a top 6% hand) as it takes a much tighter range to be basically all-in against two opps. From pokerstove, this gives me 24.3% equity in a 3-way pot.
If the initial raiser drops, then I'll use a top 10% hand for the 3-bettor if I'm heads-up. When I do this, I get a hand equity of 39% for the HU pot.

If it's heads-up against the 3-bettor, I have 39% hand equity against 41% pot equity, so the correct decision would be a marginal fold due to the pot equity being slightly higher.
If it would be a 3-way pot, I have 24.3% hand equity against 29.9% pot equity, which makes the correct decision here a definte fold.

I'm mucking KQ here since in both possible situations the pot equity is higher than my hand equity and will look for a better spot when I'm in position or with better cards to shove with.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:10 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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hey Robin,
Thanks for the response.
Yes that makes sense. I guess that's why I asked about this, coz it just didn't feel right at the time, but I did it anyway I agree that the SB's play looks pretty loose.
It was in a $1.10 tourney (NLHE 6H +1k). At this point there were 5 tables left and I was the tourney short stack. I had been short for so long that perhaps I was just frustrated.

Last edited by SothAAAA; Tue Jul 10, 2012 at 12:13 PM..
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:14 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi SothAAAA!

I'd much rather be in a 3-way pot with QJs than KQo, due to the extra hand equity for hitting a flush.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:26 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
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hey John,
Thank you. Interesting point about KQ not being too good against more than one opponent in this sort of situation. I will bear that in mind for next time. So the math says the right play was to fold... darn.
Okay, so why did I play it? I already felt it was the wrong move, but did it anyway. The large stack had raised, the SB re-raised... god, what was I thinking? I guess it was due to tiredness. It had been a real struggle surviving ITM and having made it to a respectable place in the $ perhaps I had given up?
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 12:30 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
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Posts: 55
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hi John,
lol nice of you to mention that. Jeez, nuts on the turn, busted on the river. disgusting.
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 02:44 PM
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Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71
I could'nt have done the maths (thanks john), but although you are looking for a spot to get it in, you have to hate this one (which I think you did)
the BB has past you next hand and I would be looking to blind steal (all-in) fairly loosly the next two hands with 3300 in the pot each orbit
my thoughts fwiw
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 03:26 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
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Posts: 55
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hey Jonny,
Yes, nice thinking. That would have been a much better plan
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 04:50 AM
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RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by SothAAAA View Post
hey Robin,
Thanks for the response.
Yes that makes sense. I guess that's why I asked about this, coz it just didn't feel right at the time, but I did it anyway I agree that the SB's play looks pretty loose.
It was in a $1.10 tourney (NLHE 6H +1k). At this point there were 5 tables left and I was the tourney short stack. I had been short for so long that perhaps I was just frustrated.
Hi Soth.

I know what you mean about getting frustrated, I went out of a 360 man final table myself the other day pushing K Qos in the wrong spot. It's such a tempting hand and so much easier to resist the temptation when its someone else's play.

Rob.
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 05:29 AM
(#11)
alanj28's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
I agree when u have been nursing a shortie for a while and see a marginal hand in what you think is a good spot for a shove its hard to stop and think for a sec. the small blinds raise would most probly have got me off kq in that spot but ther would be arguments to shove if you wanted to take the tourney down.


 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 11:22 AM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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Thanks, I appreciate that.
True, that was a part of my thought process. It looks like it will be a big pot and if I can win it then I would be in a decent position to push on for the final table.
Congrats on the Virt-bracelet!!
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 11:43 AM
(#13)
alanj28's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
cheers soth good luck at the tables


 

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