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suited Ace facing an all in

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suited Ace facing an all in - Tue Jul 10, 2012, 06:43 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604


we were down to 3 tables (19 players i think) in the Prem when i saw my hand i was thinking raise (been card dead for a bit, then raeexx shoves. its the prem so everyone was playing TAG only had 15 hands with raexx but haven't seen him get out of line.

so call and hope to get chips to put me onto final table........or fold and wait?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 07:55 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
First off I am not familiar with the dynamics of league play as it has just been way to long since I cared about it.

How did raexx get into the dead zone? If he's been blinding off I probably fold because you may be dominated if he's playing way too tight. If his range is as wide as it should be I'm shoving to isolate. The whole table is short stacked so you aren't likely to be called as no one has the stack to be a sheriff.

Here are some numbers:
If he's shoving 80% of his hands you are a 60:40 favorite.
If he's shoving 60% of his hands you are a 57:43 favorite.
If he's shoving 40% of his hands you are a 53:47 favorite.
If he's shoving 30% of his hands you are a 50:50 dead heat.

You only need 28% equity to break even. So have proper odds considering the dead money he must be shoving only with AA and KK, If you add QQ to the mix you have 28% equity,
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 08:44 PM
(#3)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
With so few hands with him (2 orbits) i cant say his just blinding down, and i figured at best (for me ) is he has a higher Ace. mind you this was after 3 hours of poker so might not have been my best read.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 09:54 PM
(#4)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Your villain had an M of ~1.5 so he needs to shove first in with all but the worst hands. With the dead money your odds are great. Your concern should not be the allin but someone after you having a hand. If it's not your day your toast, It it is your day (which it will be most of the time) you gain some much needed chips. Good situations are where you find them and this looks like a good situation to me.

Metagame considerations need to be made however. How longer will you last with your stack? How long will your last with the added chips? What is the likely hood of finding a better situation later? And the final question is: which probable scenario gives you the most league points? These are hard questions when at or near your best.

It continually amazes me how can a game with 52 cards and a simple set of rules can require such deep thinking.
 
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Tue Jul 10, 2012, 10:12 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
very good point,

for a freeroll this prem league has me doing some serious soul searching and scratching of my head.

Which i guess is a good thing.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 09:21 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi grade b!

A read on the opp would definitely help in this situation. If the opp had been playing tight, then I'm going to muck and hope to find a situation where I can be the first in to shove.
However, the opp should be shoving a pretty wide range here since they only have 3BB left.
A read on the players left to act would help too, as I would want to be in a HU pot against the opp that shoved.
If I can isolate the intiial shover, then I'm calling 18377 into a pot that will be 49354 (37.2%).
To get 37.2% hand equity, the opp would have to be shoving a top 8.9% hand.

Due to this, the key for me would be a read on the opps. I wouldn't want to just call the initial shove, if I was going to play the hand, I would want to re-shove to isolate and whether or not I re-shove will be based on a read of the opp.
If they are shoving a range tighter than a top 8.9% hand, then I'll fold (could easily be the case if they blinded down to 3BB), if they'll shove a wider range, then I'll re-shove to isolate.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 11:35 AM
(#7)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
BronzeStar
hey Grade b,
Hm, quite a tricky decision. Most of the the time I am going to fold here and protect my stack so that I reach the final table. But... he only has 3BB so surely he is shoving light? Overall I think I would fold, especially if this is his first shove in the last couple of orbits.
how did it play out?





~'if you want to win... you have to have White Magic.' PH~
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 12:44 PM
(#8)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi JWK, Joe, Soth,

Will say that i had managed to boil down my decision to shove or fold rather than a call, if i was playing this hand i wanted it to be only against inital raiser.

That said as some of you know i'm working on reads (definatly getting better) but this deep in a torny is new so what will players do at this point.

So in the end i made the harder decision and folded. It was then folded around to reax to take the pot uncontested which surprised me.

At what point would i risk (should i risk) a all in shove here hoping one of the blinds whats to play too?

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 02:25 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi grade b!

Especially since this is a league game, I really don't want to have to call a shove with suited ace/rag unless I'm down to 1 or 2 BB unless I can be guaranteed that everyone to act after me will fold. If anyone behind me would call/shove, I'd expect to be in deep trouble as I'm most likely either going to be outkicked or will only have 1 overcard. Either way, I'm behind with only 3 outs.

A7s does not play very well at all in a multiway pot, so if I did overshove to isolate, I would not want any callers at all from the players left to act. Against 2 opps with a top 10% hand, my A7s only has 24% equity and I would have way more than that invested into the pot, so playing it in a 3-way hand is a large -EV play.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 07:21 PM
(#10)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
I have a question grade b. How many entrants and starting chips? (I guess I have two questions)

One of the things I want to know is where I stand in the tournament stackwise. Your M is just over 5 and you only have 10 BBs. Unless you are close to average stack I could never fold here. You only have to walk a shove over the button and blinds. You have the third largest chipstack at the table. Unless you've been a maniac you only going to be looked up by a premium pair and it 24:1 against any of three players holding JJ+.
 
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Thu Jul 12, 2012, 10:12 AM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Good point Joe, As i said I've really started playing these more serouisly this month and i think this was my 4th one.

253 players started this one and we start with 2500 chips.

I think these is one hand that if it came up again I would shove that said later in this torniment , i went up against the chip leader in such a position and he was playing a wider range.

Sooooooo much to think about, but i'm getting there.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Jul 12, 2012, 07:10 PM
(#12)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
An 19 left the average stack is only 33,290 and you are just under the avg stack. Is there really that much ladder climbing in these events?
 
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Thu Jul 12, 2012, 09:11 PM
(#13)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
the scoring is based on an old tibatian monks system involving your starting points the number in the field and the average points in the fields their is a uniform jump of 2.4 points (for me) from 19 to 9 then this happens

(makes me a bit sick i went out in forth (had the second biggest stack got it in with QQ v's big stack he snaged the A) opps sorry side tracked

so 11th = 57.96 points
10 = 60.49
9=73.02
8=75.55
7=78.08
6=80.61
5=83.14
4=85.67
3=98.20
2=110.73
1=133.26

Grade b

ps

you start with 1500 points and first is at 20.32
2nd at 1862

down to me at 50 with 16.91


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Jul 12, 2012, 10:35 PM
(#14)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
A flat point structure like that definitely encourages ladder climbing.

With you being among the chip leaders it appears in spite of the low M, I can't fault a fold here. With that shallow of money there should be a rash of bust outs soon. But you are going to have to get involved in the very near future.

Interesting how one piece of information can change things.

Good decisions.
 

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