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$1.10 NLHE(+2.5K) JJ call or fold?

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$1.10 NLHE(+2.5K) JJ call or fold? - Wed Jul 11, 2012, 10:52 AM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
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It's fairly close to the $. I could fold down but I would be left with probably about 5BB by the time we get there. The villain is playing quite a loose-aggressive style. It's a pretty easy read to put him on exactly what he has: Ao. Either that or maybe KQ, K10. I expect him to have at least one overcard to my pair, but if he has an overpair I would be surprised. So I think it very likely that if I call I will be something like 65-35% to win.









What is correct here? Should I fold and nit out till I reach the $? That seems like super-tight play. Obviously I realise that I could lose the hand, and I know JJ is not that strong, but I'm probably ahead with any pair.


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~

Last edited by SothAAAA; Wed Jul 11, 2012 at 12:18 PM..
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 01:05 PM
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Grade b's Avatar
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hi Soth,

I think if playing that loose i may have called here.

did you see this topic started by the Langoier?

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...1-MTT-Quiz-ITM

basically he's saying just getting ITM isn't good enough long term goal you want to run deep and this guy is spewy enough to give you that chance.

Grade b


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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 02:07 PM
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Hi SothAAAA!

Knowing that the opp is a LAG will definitely help with my decision here.

If I call, I need to put 5752 chips into a pot that will be 12954 (44.4%).
To make this a positive EV play, I then need to see if my hand equity will be over 44.4%. Since the opp has been playing loose, I'll use a top 27.6% hand (any A, any pair, any broadway)... with them being loose, it could also be an even wider range. Against the 27.6% range, my JJ has 67.3% equity. If the opp's range is wider, my equity number will even be higher.

Since the hand equity is much higher than my pot equity, I'm going to call the opp's shove and hope to chip-up for a deep run in the tourney. Yes, I'll lose some of the time, but in this instance, the reward of possibly having a deep run in the tourney outweighs the risk.
Also, if I do happen to lose, I still have an 8+BB stack that I can then look to shove with to try to get ITM and chips for a deeper run in the tourney.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 03:44 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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hi Grade b,
Yes, my thoughts too. I was pretty sure that he had Ao.
I had a look at that thread, thanks. Interesting and surprising to see that you would need to min-cash in a large field MTT about 70% of the time to break even. Wow. That's not easy to do in fields of 2,3, or 10,000+.
At some point you have to take a risk to chip up and go deeper.
In general I don't like being all-in. Or, as in this situation, having most of my stack in. I'm wondering if it is reasonable to fold in a position like this and just wait for softer spots with less risk? I mean, I'm putting him on Ao so even if I'm right and I'm ahead he still has the chance to catch an A and win the pot. For that matter he can suck out with any garbage. I guess the math means that in this situation my hand will hold 2 out of 3 times, but 1 in 3 I will lose. If I make this kind of play half a dozen times in a tourney I am very likely to bust out.
Like, I just played a tourney, and I had KK 2 hands in a row and both times got all the chips in. I won the first but ran into AA on the second and was busted. Just unlucky to meet AA with KK, yes, but it happens, and even with the best of it we can't have better than 4-1.
So my question is this: it looks super-tight to fold JJ here but could it be a winning long term strategy?
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 03:53 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
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hey John,
Thanks for your thoughts. I like the math reads that you give. Good to know that stuff. So I was pretty close in my estimation of 65-35, huh? Woop! So correct play is to call every time here?
I would appreciate your view on my comment above to Grade b and the question I put.
 
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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SothAAAA View Post
So my question is this: it looks super-tight to fold JJ here but could it be a winning long term strategy?
I don't think folding here is going to be a winning long term strategy. I've got about a +23%EV play and the chips that I accumulate the 2/3 of the time that I win can get me deeper into the tourney and get a much higher return. Really, the only times that I would accept a min-cash in one of these is when I'm card dead. If I'm not, then I want to be taking positive EV plays to accumulate chips.

John (JWK24)


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Wed Jul 11, 2012, 04:42 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
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hey John,
Yes, fair enough. And that's the reason I called.
But, if I am in this situation about 3 or 4 times during a tourney- discounting the final table- then it means that I am going to lose one of those hands. If I am not busted it is still going to seriously damage my stack, and force me to shove and possibly bust soon.
If I am a larger stack and risking much less, say 25% of my chips, then I can afford to take that hit one in three times. I think I have to get quite lucky to put my tourney life at risk 3+ times (before FT) and still survive.
(I know I mentioned having KK 2 hands in a row, but that was a f miracle! I am always card-dead lol)
Yes, I agree min-cash is not a reasonable aim.


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 

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