Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Tournament Section (MTTs & STTs) /

Insane Odds, terrible mistake?

Old
Default
Insane Odds, terrible mistake? - Wed Jul 11, 2012, 06:26 PM
(#1)
Johnspasm's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 5
Hello people,

I wanted to bring this hand for analysis, so frustrating for me...i have played this tournament ($11R+) two times, last week and this week, 400h something players and both i have busted 12th and 14th. Now this last one was the really painful one. I was sitting 4th in chips, 204k...15 players left..

Im not a big fan of calling this type of hands out of position just because i was getting good odds...I heisted a lot before calling, my 6th sense somehow was telling me how tricky multiway pots are.

I felt really uncomfortable after the second player flatted the UTG cbet, but i guess i was blinded by the trips.

Well it looks like a very unlucky spot, but maybe you can give different advices, could i really get away from it? is that a way marginal hand for a pre flop call there is such odds?

Thanks in advance,

John


 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 11, 2012, 10:20 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi John!

From the blinds, I try not to call raises since I'm going to be out of position the entire rest of the hand. I'll either standard raise or fold preflop. With QJ, I could easily be dominated by one of the others, so I'd muck preflop.
If I did play the hand, I'd have raised to 41600 (pot size raise) to try and thin the field some.

The flop gives me trip J's. Since there are possible draws to beat me, I want to bet the flop and would size it at 1/2 pot. With top set, even if someone shoves over me, I'm going to call it and hope they don't have the case J with a higher kicker (which could be the case here as KJ and AJ are well within the opp's ranges). There are enough chips in the pot, I'm willing to take that chance, as I'll be the chip favorite to win the tourney and if I'm behind, I still have outs.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Wed Jul 11, 2012, 10:33 PM
(#3)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
BronzeStar
hi,
Well I didn't expect pocket 7s there. That was just unlucky, I think.
I do agree with previous comment that calling with QJ is a bit loose. You were well stacked and close to the final table so I would prefer to be a bit tighter here.


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 
Old
Default
Coolers happen - Wed Jul 11, 2012, 11:35 PM
(#4)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnspasm View Post
Im not a big fan of calling this type of hands out of position just because i was getting good odds...I heisted a lot before calling, my 6th sense somehow was telling me how tricky multiway pots are.

I felt really uncomfortable after the second player flatted the UTG cbet, but i guess i was blinded by the trips.

Well it looks like a very unlucky spot, but maybe you can give different advices, could i really get away from it? is that a way marginal hand for a pre flop call there is such odds?

Thanks in advance,

John
I like your PF call! You’re getting 8:1 odds; you’re closing the betting; you’re the chip leader; two of players in the pot have deep enough stacks to extract chips from; plus you’ll have the best position at the table. This is called ‘relative position’, which means you are directly to the right of the PF raiser, who will usually act first. Thus, you will see all the action in front of you, before you have to act on the flop. Raising to thin the field is the wrong approach, it will only tend to get you forced out of the hand PF, or put you in an awkward situation post-flop with a bloated pot.

No matter how the hand played out on the flop, you were getting it all-in by the river. Coolers happen, but still a good finish. I just read a ‘blog’ by talonchick, in which she stated, “I am still not sure how tournament players ever really smile. I have had some deep runs and built up chip stacks, only to get crushed just before the final tables. It is an interesting phenomenon in tourneys, you can finish 10th out of 2000 people and be devastated!! What a strange game we all love.” Her statement is so appropriate for this forum post, and as a poker player, I’m sure you can relate.

Seems like you are palying your ‘A’ game to finish deep in both tourneys that had over 400 players – good job!


"May the cards be with you!"
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 05:00 AM
(#5)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
I agree with spadez,

With 50BB I think you have room to play a speculative hand here. I'm not a big fan of Q Jos but I think it's the kind of hand where seeing a cheap flop is not a bad idea once in a while on the proviso that I'd need better than a one pair hand before I'm getting significant chips in the middle after that.

From the flop onwards the gods of poker had decreed your doom here; nothing you could do about that. Suck it up and move on.

Rob.
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 08:04 AM
(#6)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
BronzeStar
hi Robin,
yes, that is reasonable, but why risk it? In a few orbits you will probably be at the last table where you can open up and play fast. I wouldn't want to get involved with a dangerous holding like OJ here. But that's my nitty style


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 11:15 AM
(#7)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
really pot odds alone are enough to play a speculative hand?

what about the ranges of the players in the hand?

If pot odds alone are a good reason to play a hand how come i lose money in the SB all the time?

I guess I fall into the I fold with this much action in front camp with the proviso unless all 3 are maniacs.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 01:37 PM
(#8)
folkstix's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 55
I agree with those saying it's a fold. That's based on my personal opinion and not wanting to play a hand like QJo OOP. I'm just not comfortable enough with my post-flop play to make it profitable at this point. Further to that, I think far too often you'll end up calling pre and folding on the flop and that can become a bit of a leak IMO.

As played, you flop about as good as it gets. That being said, I don't know that I'm check-shoving this flop. Maybe I'm the only one?
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 01:55 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi folkstix!

When I hit trips or a set on a board that has a flush or straight draw possible, I'm leading with it... both for value and to protect my hand.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 02:25 PM
(#10)
folkstix's Avatar
Since: Nov 2010
Posts: 55
Even a gutshot?
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 07:45 PM
(#11)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
really pot odds alone are enough to play a speculative hand?

what about the ranges of the players in the hand?

If pot odds alone are a good reason to play a hand how come i lose money in the SB all the time?

I guess I fall into the I fold with this much action in front camp with the proviso unless all 3 are maniacs.

Grade b
I hear what you're saying reads would make a difference one way or the other and I'm not in love with a call here. But like I said once in a while a play like this can be worth while if only to mix things up a bit. Certainly not every time because you're right then it might become a leak.

Rob.
 
Old
Default
Thu Jul 12, 2012, 10:50 PM
(#12)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobinQQQ View Post
I hear what you're saying reads would make a difference one way or the other and I'm not in love with a call here. But like I said once in a while a play like this can be worth while if only to mix things up a bit. Certainly not every time because you're right then it might become a leak.

Rob.
For sure a once in a while play were you can get to a cheap show down as misinformation, then yep i'm with you there. As a general rule..well what do my reads say.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com