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45ppl $1 final table bubbled again

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45ppl $1 final table bubbled again - Fri Jul 13, 2012, 11:28 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
this is sick,i never seem to hit my loads of outs but however every game i seem to loose of late they always hit theres.
what? fuming grrrr,trying to stay calm but since i have cashed in cant win a hand, either miss my outs or get outed,

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=2687EA02C9

Ok i think i played the optimal play with this hand,my ? is would you of played it different?

mostly tight opps at the table all standard play really
 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 01:48 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,788
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Holdem!

Since this is the final table, I want to do two things. Get ITM and get enough chips for a top 3 run, as that is where the larger payouts are. I'm basically sitting in a tie for 3rd right now, so I don't need to go far to get into the top 3.

With 88, or any other hand that I'm going to play, I want to make a standard raise. For this blind level, I'll bet 2.5BB+1BB for each limper, so I'll raise to 750. I start with 3BB+1BB for each limper up until the 100/200 blind level, then drop it to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper and keep it at that until I get to the 1k/2k level where I'll drop to 2.2BB+1BB for each limper. Varying raise sizes at a particular blind level is a big online tell and I want to keep everything standard, so the opp won't know if I've got AA, 33, AJ, 78s or a bluff.
Min raises, especially from out of position will price in too many marginal hands and put me into too many sticky situations OOP post flop and I want to avoid these situations whenever possible.

The flop gives me bottom set, but the board is VERY coordinated. There are possible straight draws, a possible flush draw and even two combination draws. With this many draws out there and basically ALL of them in the opp's range, I absolutely must lead the flop here to price them out. To do so against one opp, I need to make a pot size bet here and will bet 1850. The worst case drawing scenario is a combo draw that could have 15 outs (30% equity per street) and if I make a pot sized bet then the opp has to pay 33.3% to draw at 30% equity... a -3.3% EV play.

With there being so many draws, if the opp did have 15 outs, then I'm not even the favorite in the hand so I definitely do not want all of my chips to go into the pot when I could be behind.... especially to one of the three larger stacks than me on the bubble.

If the opp shoves over my pot-bet on the flop, then I'm mucking bottom set here to preserve my chip position so that I can get ITM (lowest stack would still have less than 1/4 my chip stack), then I'll look to play a hand when I'm IN position or with a better hand to try to get into the top 3.

If the opp calls the flop and the turn misses the draws (both for me and them), then I've got to either make another pot-sized bet (to price out the draws again) or to shut down for pot control to get ITM. If the opp has been playing loose, I'd opt for the bet, with the opp playing tight (especially a passive opp), I'm checking and hoping that either I improve on the river or that the draws do not hit.... in which case, then I'll make a value bet.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 02:04 PM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
thx john for the great analysis, yea i think i played it bad now lookiing at it,
it was one of those games, that you played so well, get there, then bamm,you got to love it enough make any1 scream lool.

Last edited by holdemace486; Fri Jul 13, 2012 at 02:05 PM.. Reason: edit
 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 04:49 PM
(#4)
ronh1967's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 376
was this a turbo or reg blinds speed
 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 05:17 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by ronh1967 View Post
was this a turbo or reg blinds speed

ron at the $1 level 45 mans are standard 10 minute blinds. The 90 mans at $1 are turbo blinds.

How have you been? Haven't seen you around much lately.
 

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