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MicroMillions $0.11 Rebuy Sat

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MicroMillions $0.11 Rebuy Sat - Fri Jul 13, 2012, 06:02 PM
(#1)
Jcrondps's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 147
I'm late in a MM satellite and I wake up with A,Qs UTG. We are 3 from the money and 4 from a seat. The money is only $0.30 less than an actual seat so it's worth trying for.

My thoughts are as follows:
There are 2 shorter stacks than me and an approximately equivalent stack with position on me. If these 3 stacks bust, I'm in the money. Some of the bigger stacks have been fairly active on other tables but there hasn't been much action on the final table. I can probably wait it out and cash in this tournament, as one if the bigger stacks is probably going to make a mistake.

However, A,Q suited is a fairly strong hand. I decide to put in a 2.5x raise and hope to take down the blinds. If I get a caller or 2, I can re-evaluate on the flop.

Thoughts on flop:
I have to cbet this flop. If he has a king, I"m still a flip to win. He shoves, I decide he has a king but I can't fold.



Should I have folded pre and waited out the other stacks? Should I have shoved pre? Did I play the hand right? My main concern here is ICM. In any other tournament, I feel I played it right but I wasn't playing to win the whole thing. I wanted to advance a few more spots.

Thoughts?
 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 09:17 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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Hi Jcrondps!

With the top 4 getting a $3.30 ticket and 5th getting $3.00, I want to make the best move that I can to be able to get into the top 4.. with 5th being a worst case scenario.. if possible.
I'm sitting in basically a tie for 5th and the other player has blind position on me.. so if it came down to it, I blind out first. Therefore, I want to be looking for a spot to pick up chips.

If I'm playing AQs here, I'd make my std open, which for me at this level is to 2.5BB+1BB for each limper, or a raise to 4k. I get called by not only someone with position on me, but one of the larger stacks, so I always have to remember that it is MY tourney on the line.

I flop the nut flush draw. Since I'm out of position here, I've got 2 choices. I can check to the opp (which leaves open a steal if they missed the flop) or I can make a small blocking type bet. If I do bet the flop (which I would do if the opp was not very aggressive), then I need to size the bet small enough that it gives me the correct odds to draw to my flush.
I have 9 outs to the flush and possibly another 3 outs if an A would get me the best hand. Therefore, I have between 18 and 24% hand equity, so I do not want to make a bet that will cost me more than 18-24% of what the pot will be including my bet. If I bet more than this, then I'm making a play that will be a -EV draw... I'll price myself out of the pot. Therefore, i'm going to bet 2500 (2500 into a pot that will be 14100 is 17.7%).
Also, by betting this low, if the opp does come over the top of me, I'm not pot committed and can fold, as the bet is less than 1/3 of my remaining stack.. and I do not want to make a -EV draw.
It would also leave me with 11675 chips if I have to get off the hand.. which leaves me in the same relative chip position that I started the hand with (2 stacks beneath me).

If you want to look solely at ICM, then when I run the numbers for it, they say to shove pre with AQs, however, I'd much rather try to outplay someone after the flop since I don't have a made hand and want to maximize my chance to gain chips while minimizing my chance to lose chips.

While ICM says to shove, I'm going to open-raise preflop, then make a small value bet that can also work as a blocking bet on the flop and get off the unmade hand if the opp shoves. This way I have the chance to make enough chips to move me up into range to get a ticket, but also if I have to give the hand up, while I may lose some chips, I won't lose my current placing.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 09:42 PM
(#3)
Jcrondps's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 147
Thank you for your very insightful post, JWK. I made my post flop decision based me having ~46 equity in the pot from the next 2 streets rather than my flop to turn equity. You've given me something to consider for the future.

One question I do have is, does a bet of ~2500 not open up a chance for my opponent to bluff me off the pot? To me, it screams of weakness.

Thanks
 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 09:53 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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How was the opp playing?
If they were playing very aggressive, then I'd check because they could easily bet enough that prices me out. If the opp was playing more passive (which can easily happen around a satty bubble), then I'd make the smaller bet to try and keep myself priced in.

The more players that were playing aggro at the table, the more I'd want to muck preflop and look for a spot when I'm in position.

However, if he bluffs and gets called, the opp is losing thier safe stack size and probably won't cash.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 10:11 PM
(#5)
Jcrondps's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 147
There wasn't much action at the final table but I was watching other tables and that opponent had been playing aggressively prior to the final table.

The opponent did end up tabling K,J on that particular hand and I didn't get there. Thanks for the perspective.

 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 10:19 PM
(#6)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Jcrondps,

I'm not sure ICM works very well this this instance since we are quite a long way off the money compared to the size of the field left. I think ICM theory would say at this point a shove or a fold would be better than a raise. (Depending how often a raise is getting through the table)

This is a pretty tricky spot. Given we have a decent stack but still a little way off the money. We may be able to post and fold into the money from here depending on the table. But I wouldn't mind picking up another pot or two. However at this point in a satelitte I am normally thinking to myself i want to pick up 1 or 2 more blinds. I'm not looking to double up.

So that in mind when I play the pot I want to maximise my fold equity as much as I can. That means shoving hands rather than raising or shoving in late position.

I think AQs is strong enough here for me to shove it. If we try and use ICM theory at the moment. which is basically converting our current chip stack to prize equity and converting our chip stack if we play a hand to prize equity.

At the moment our prize equity is $1.96
If we shove and pickup the blinds our equity moves to $2.20
If we shove and double our equity moves to about $2.90 depending who you double through. (But this is probably a little higher since we assume we have a skill each at this point to be able to take a big stack to a cash).
If we shove and bust obviously $0 equity.
If we shove and don't bust but double one of the short stacks it's all dependant but probably about $1 in equity.

Man this is so close. When we get called by a big stack our equity plummets. So we probably need to be picking up the blinds about 75% of the time. I think with a 12BB shove we probably are, but it may depend a bit on our table mates. I think I go with the shove here.

Sorry for the long confusing post.
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Jul 13, 2012, 10:46 PM
(#7)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Lets say we raise anyway.

My gut tells me I wouldn't put in another chip without being allin.

Our equity if we fold is $1.73
To shove here we need 60% equity to break even in ICM

Add to that sometimes a donk might call on a worse flush draw or a smaller pair and our Q might be an out also. Shoving prevents him ever bluffing us out. I think I would shove on this flop if villian was aggressive and look to check fold if he is passive (since he won't bluff us as often/ever)

Assuming we shove and he does have a K and call and we are about 45% to win we our equity is $1.31

John's line of betting 2500 and folding to a raise would leave us with $1.52 in equity in the instance we have to fold and also allows us to possibly pickup the pot if the player missed and folds.

So I think a shove would be ok vs aggressive players. Vs passive players a check fold or a bet fold would be best.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 

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