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25c/45man (none turbo) AQo

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25c/45man (none turbo) AQo - Sun Jul 15, 2012, 01:41 PM
(#1)
Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71
ok this one looks terrible and makes me look like a massive nit, but at the time it felt right,
its hard to remember exactly but I had just trebled with QQ, and the limping villain was calling my raise for definate 64/3/45 (small sample) then when I miss the flop!!! I felt It was still early enough to let AQ go

 
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Sun Jul 15, 2012, 04:13 PM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
It is nitty yes but in these .25 45 mans this is one of those spots,at this stage in the tournament and with the effective stack sizes and position of those stacks in relation to us that it becomes very much a less cut and dried situation no matter what action you take. I can honestly make a case,through my experience in these,for all three possible plays here.

(Just for background when US players could play here I ran 28% ITM with just under a +46% ROI in these,over 250 games. Far from a big sample and not great results,but fairly solid I think.)

Given the stats you cite on the limper here (small sample though it is...) I can definitely make a case for 4x raising them (our standard 3x raise at this stage of the proceedings + 1x for each limper,so 4x...). We do this though and we MUST have a plan for what we're going to do if there is any action behind us.

The cutoff,the button and the BB are all on stacks where they can never flat call our 4x raise (if they do then they're stone donkeys...) and must ship. Same for the open limper,he can never call us and must either fold or ship. Are we firmly committed to getting it in against any of these stacks if they do ship? Because 4x raising and then folding to a ship from any of these shorter stacks would be a massive leak. The 3 very short stacks can be going with a range wide enough that we'll be ahead many times and flipping at worst most of the others. The 1980 stack isn't nearly so desperate yet (or shouldn't be,there's no telling sometimes in these...) so if he ships we could be in big trouble.

Also there is the SB to consider if we raise. I don't know if you saw how he/she accumulated those chips or not,but more times than not a player with that size size at this stage is a lucker who hit a couple hands on terrible plays. If that's the case we must be prepared for the possibility that he/she could call with a huge range and then we could be up against a spot where we miss the flop and they hit some piece of their garbage and bet us off the hand.

You really have to consider all these things before you make any play that has you entering the pot here.especially if you enter for a raise.

We could just call here. That's not a terrible play if we are confident in our ability to outplay the opponents post-flop. And it hides our hand strength nicely. But it also let's ragged hands,especially from the blinds,also see a cheap flop and with a hand as strong as AQ that's not great either.

The last option is the one you took here---folding. At this stage in the tourney this isn't really as bad as it may look at first blush. AQo is one of those hands that looks nice,but can get you into very bad spots if you aren't careful with it. We just trebled up and have a nice 40BB stack that is very playable at this point in a 45 man. There will still be more than a few bad players left at this stage whom we can exercise patience against and let them come to us when we have them in much more favorable spots for us.

Like I said,in my experience this is one of those "squishy" spots at this stage in a 45 man when I have a decent stack. On the one hand I want to acquire more chips,on the other hand my first consideration is to not leak away the chips I have on speculative hands.

If I have reads that tell me that I can get this back to the original limper unchallenged more often than not (meaning that the players to follow are likely folding anything but a category 1 hand) then I would look to raise,as his stats,even as short a sample as it is,tell us that the open limper will likely fold to our aggression.

If I don't have those read,or are not prepared to get it in against any ships from the shorter stacks,then I think a fold is OK here as well.

Calling would be my last choice but even that is not completely out of bounds at this stage in one of these with our position,against these effective stack sizes.

Sorry to not be more concrete but this is really one of those "it depends" spots IMO.

I think the absolute key thing here is to have a plan for what you are going to do against any actions to follow if you do choose to enter the pot,either for a raise or a limp.

If you do not have a plan,for any scenario,that you are comfortable with then I think folding is perfectly OK.
 
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Sun Jul 15, 2012, 06:29 PM
(#3)
Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71
The last option is the one you took here---folding. At this stage in the tourney this isn't really as bad as it may look at first blush. AQo is one of those hands that looks nice,but can get you into very bad spots if you aren't careful with it. We just trebled up and have a nice 40BB stack that is very playable at this point in a 45 man. There will still be more than a few bad players left at this stage whom we can exercise patience against and let them come to us when we have them in much more favorable spots for us.

[/QUOTE]

I think this pretty much summed up my thinking and with no plan springing to mind the safest option,
but I think that i could have assessed the situation better or at all and tested the short stacks,no real info on big stack though!

thanks for comments
 
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Sun Jul 15, 2012, 08:31 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Jonny9691!

The key for me in this hand is not going to be the initial limper, as my hand AQo has 63.4% equity against their range from pokerstove. The key is to know what the opps that are left to act will do. While AQ may play very well against the limper's range, it does not play as well in multi-way pots, as it is not a made hand... it's still only ace high. The bigstack is the one that I'd also want to know about, as they would be the most likely caller and is the only one that can threaten my tourney life.
Not knowing their VPIP number, but say if they called even with a top 30% hand, then my hand equity drops to 42.7%. I've still got the highest equity of the three, but I'm a favorite to lose the hand. If the opp was playing a tighter range, say a top 10% hand, then I'm now going to lose almost 2 of every 3 times.

With 40BB in my stack, I'm going to make a std raise here (3BB+1BB for each limper), so I'll raise to 400 and see what happens.
If I isolate the initial limper, then I get to play the rest of the hand in position against an opp with a wide range.
If not, then I'll re-evaluate the situation if I get raised.. based on my reads for that opp, or after I see the flop.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



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Sun Jul 15, 2012, 09:00 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Hi Jonny,

You fold because the limper always called your raise.

You should be happy that the limper will call your raise because you will get value from your hand.

If you flop A or Q you will be very much ahead of the limper who might have a weak ace or a Q that you have dominated and if it does it's good news to you.

If you miss you can always c-bet to take down the pot if the limper called for the 2nd time then that's the time you give up to your hand if you miss the turn and the limper gives you action but even if you lose the pot you will still have playable stacks to work with.

If your going to fold AQ pre flop with only one limper who always calls a raise then you will only comfortable playing AK AA KK QQ JJ to him which you will not get very often. Slowly blinds are going up and you will be just average stacks if you keep folding and will be force to play push or fold.

If you have stacks don't be afraid to use it to pressure your opponent to fold. That's the use of big stacks.
 
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Mon Jul 16, 2012, 11:05 AM
(#6)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
BronzeStar
Jonny have you had some bad beats with AQ recently or something? I don't really get why you don't play it. You are only facing a limp. At worse you could just call and see the flop. AQ is one of the stronger hands you will get so I think you have to play it. Having just trebled up it is ok to coast for a while and let a few more players bust, but I think you still have to play your decent hands.


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 
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Mon Jul 16, 2012, 12:46 PM
(#7)
Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71
thanks soth,
I marked this hand while playing, to analyse later, but now i look at it, i think what was i doing its an obvious raise,
but at the time I think I had had a bad time with terrible villians, and being card dead!
so when I managed to exploit them with QQ and hold for a treble it put me on a strange kind of tilt!!

but yes I agree
 

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