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25c/45man A10s

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25c/45man A10s - Mon Jul 16, 2012, 02:07 PM
(#1)
Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71


Is it ok to limp from sb?
pot odds to call after raise!
should I have bet the flop to build pot?
and am I ready to commit all with my nut flush draw?
 
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Mon Jul 16, 2012, 06:13 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi jonny9691!

When I'm in the SB, especially early in a tourney when players will stay with anything, I don't like completing. I'll either make a standard raise or fold. I don't want to be playing a pot with many, many opps in it being out of position the whole hand. Also, I'll run into situations like what I see happened here.... the BB has a hand, position on me and raises preflop. If I'm going to call the BB's raise... then I'd rather bet the one with the lead in the hand and raise first and if I muck, it just cost me an extra 1/2 blind.

The flop gives me a nut flush draw, but I've only got ace high. If I had raised preflop, then I would make a small c-bet here to try and narrow the field some, but small enough to price in my draw. With not raising preflop and not having the lead in the hand, I'm going to check and hope that it checks around to get a free card.
I would not want to 'build a pot' at all here, as I only have A high and I am not the favorite to win the hand. I only want to be building a pot when I'm sure that I'm ahead in the hand... not anytime that I'm behind. I am absolutely not going to commit to this pot due to not being ahead nor the favorite to win the hand. Even if everyone is all-in on the flop, I only have 9 outs, which means that I'll win only 36% of the time (my hand has 4% equity per out to see both cards)! I'm not putting all my chips in when I'm going to lose basically 2 of every 3 times.

The turn is a total blank for me. I'm checking here again. By betting, with only one street to go, my hand equity has just been cut in half. Any bet over 18% of the pot here is a -EV play... which means that I'll lose chips on average every single time that this happens. If I bet 50% of the pot, then I expect to LOSE 50%-18% = 32% of the chips I bet each and every time. The plays that I want to be making are +EV plays.. where I'll gain chips over time.
After I check, if to call their bet costs me more than 18% of the pot... the I'm mucking my flush draw, as I do not have the pot odds to call.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Jul 17, 2012, 05:06 AM
(#3)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
BronzeStar
hi Jonny,
Oh well, after reading John's analysis of this hand, whatever I say is going to be non-optimal play.
But rightly or wrongly I don't play according to the math. I like the math, I appreciate it, but it doesn't suit my personality to play by it. I can't dispute it because it's logically correct.
But, here's what I would do... often I will limp; because I want to avoid heavy pre-flop betting. That's just my overall strategy and most think it's a dumb approach. But I do it anyway.
I like a As because it can make the nuts, or if it wiffs it's easy enough to get away from. Sometimes I will open here to build a pot. I often play the nut flush draw strongly, as a sort of semi-bluff. I have a lot of outs: I can hit an A or the flush. There is a possibility that I have the best hand already. I am also thinking that if I bet here on the flop, rather than waiting to make the flush, then if I do hit on the turn or river my hand is more disguised and I can get more chips into the pot. I'm not going to make a massive bet on the flop, just about 3BB.
Other times I will check and see if the flush comes in. Just depends how I feel like playing it.
But none of that is optimal play and could get you into a lot of trouble


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~

Last edited by SothAAAA; Tue Jul 17, 2012 at 11:07 AM..
 
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Well played - Tue Jul 17, 2012, 09:50 AM
(#4)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonny9691 View Post
Is it ok to limp from sb?
pot odds to call after raise!
should I have bet the flop to build pot?
and am I ready to commit all with my nut flush draw?
You are 40BB deep, in the early stages of a 45 man MTT.

PF: ATs is a great hand to play (for cheap) in a multi-way pot. Your PF complete, with one player to act, is fine. Given the fact that the PFR is small, everyone came along for the ride, and you are closing the betting, your call again is fine.

Flop: This is a great flop for your hand… you have the nut flush draw with an over-card. At this point, you should be thinking about a check-raise. The worse possible scenario is the PFR having AQ, which you still have decent equity against (less concerned the limpers have AQ), or that someone fast-plays a set. But, there are many more combos of hands, which are friendlier for a planned check-raise than not.

Turn: The turn card brings a few draws with it, 86s; 97s; club flush draw, as well as 66 just ‘binked’ a set. Having said that, the 6c missed the majority of hands; the draws, and small pairs should fold to continued aggression on the river. No one wanted this hand on the flop, so your OOP bet after a mostly blank turn card is well played. Even if you get called, you will still have outs, plus you have the initiative on the river.


"May the cards be with you!"
 

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