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Stats to drown in

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Stats to drown in - Tue Jul 17, 2012, 09:53 PM
(#1)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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If you go here you will find my group one and two stats for more than 40 thousand hand. I have been keeping these stats for the play money SNG games I am playing. Now I can hear the naysayers already telling me such numbers are worth [censored] since it is for play money. Real money is so different.

Well people, that link is for my "real money" games. To date, I have completed 300 games, or 24 thousand hands. Would you like to see the group one and two numbers? I'll give you a little hint with a teaser. We all know that pocket aces should win approximately 85-87% of the hands. My play money numbers are hitting 86%. Right in the range of reasonableness. Yes, looser play in chip games means more people are willing to challenge all-in plays with ATC, but the math is impressing me.

Before anyone disses chip play, let me tell you my games are at the $2000 + $110 range for the 27-player SNG games. This is considered a low stakes game. My objective is to do 1,000 of these games and I'm doing about 100 per calendar month in 20-game blocks. I try to maximize points, playing as if these games were part of the Battle of the Planet Competition.

I also wish to mention that I am finding this level of competition a lot tougher than the $300 + $20 games. At least here the players have a far more serious outlook. My success rate is a lot lower than my previous 1.000-game run, but that just makes this a more challenging series. I also have a lot of other interesting stats to drown anyone interested.

That said, if anyone wants to see these numbers posted, let me know. I'm guessing the elite checque players will again trash talk chip action, but are you willing to post your numbers? Nobody was willing to take my challenge last time. How about this time?
 
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Wed Jul 18, 2012, 12:08 AM
(#2)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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Statistics for 300 games or 15 orbits:

All Games
24,264 ----- hands dealt
06,544 ----- hands played (26.97%)
02,583 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages
39.47% ----- of hand played
10.65% ----- of total hands

My Record
014 games ----- Ist place
016 games ----- 2nd place
026 games ----- 3rd place
026 games ----- 4th place
016 games ----- 5th place

ITM percentage = 32.67%
gain to date = $342,240


Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

099 -- 016 -- 000 == 861 --- 861 --- AA
097 -- 031 -- 006 == 758 --- 724 --- KK
060 -- 027 -- 005 == 690 --- 652 --- QQ
052 -- 022 -- 030 == 703 --- 500 --- JJ
049 -- 010 -- 030 == 831 --- 551 --- TT
041 -- 010 -- 023 == 804 --- 554 --- AK suited
095 -- 026 -- 100 == 785 --- 430 ---AK off suit
025 -- 009 -- 030 == 735 --- 391 --- AQ suited
028 -- 013 -- 036 == 683 --- 364 --- AJ suited
022 -- 010 -- 032 == 688 --- 344 --- KQ suited

568 -- 174 -- 292 == 765 --- 549 --- Group One and Two Totals

To read this: pocket kings won 97 hands, lost 31 hands, and I folded them 6 times. The winning percentage is 97 over (97 plus 31) The overall percentage is 97 wins over (97 plus 31 plus 6)

Number of hands
0,115 --- AA ----- 11.12% ----- 00.47%
0,134 --- KK ----- 12.96%
0,092 --- QQ ----- 08.90%
0,104 --- JJ ----- 10.06%
0,089 --- TT ----- 08.61%
0,074 --- AK suited ----- 07.16%
0,221 ---AK off suit ----- 21.37%
0064 --- AQ suited ----- 06.19%
0,077 --- AJ suited ----- 07.45%
0,064 --- KQ suited ----- 06.19%

1,034 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.26%


How to read these numbers: I had pocket aces 115 times, which is 11.12% of my Group One and Two Hands. Pocket aces came up 0.47% of the hands dealt. Overall, the Group One and Two hands accounted for 4.26% of the hands dealt.

I am still wondering why AK is such a great hand. My stats say it is great preflop, but sucks sewer water postflop. Perhaps some of these stats are more indicitive of my playing style than the card's success rate with a different playing style.

136 -- 036 -- 123 == 791 --- 461 --- AK combined ----- 28.53% of the Group One and Two hands.


My objective is one hundred orbits, which is 2,000 games. If anyone thinks these numbers worth updating, let me know and I'll update after every five orbits.
 
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Wed Jul 18, 2012, 01:00 AM
(#3)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Yes and I had been wondering where in the Hell you had gotten to.

Good read Hedgehog.
 
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Wed Jul 18, 2012, 09:50 AM
(#4)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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Just one more stat and then I'll return to my usual lurk mode.


Average game speed = 82 hands per hour

My average number of hands per game = 80

This means I am playing less than an hour per game. I love telling people that "ZZZZZ" during a game how fast we are playing. Most have no idea how fast the game goes. If I go deep, the speed can go over 120 hands per hour. (I need to be in third or better for that.) What I have seen is that the 3-table game is around 40 - 50 hands per hour, 2-tables goes up to 60 - 75 hands an hour, and you hit 80 - 88 hands at the final table. You really accelerate once pass the bubble and speeds in excess of 100 hands an hour are normal.

When I have finished first or second, the game can be between 1 hour 35 minutes to 1 hour 58 minutes. This is why I figure 2 hours per game. If I don't have that much time, I'll not start.
 
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Wed Jul 18, 2012, 01:38 PM
(#5)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Very interesting stats, Cairn, I for one would be happy to see updates. I find it interesting that your win percentages with various hands is so close to "the norm". I checked my own percentages when I had a hud running, and found them much the same.

Keep up the good work!!

 
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Wed Jul 18, 2012, 04:01 PM
(#6)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,506
Cairn, another interesting point shown up by your stats, is how RARE ( or not ) are certain Hole cards.
Most people believe that Pocket Aces or Kings are quite rare hands. Your stats show that of the category one and two hands that you were dealt in this sample ( albeit a small ample ), you were only dealt one of these hands more frequently than AA or KK and that was AKo, which was almost twice as frequent as either of those two hands. You were dealt KK a little more often than AA, but even those two hands came more frequently than any of the other cat 1 & 2 hands.
Quite interesting I think.

 
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Thu Jul 19, 2012, 01:07 AM
(#7)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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Every time I try talking stats with people, they give me the cold sholder saying "it isn't real since it is for play money." My thinking is the RNG doesn't know if it is real or not. Thus the odds should be the same, which is why I'm posting these numbers. Let those who dis the play money side provide their numbers or claim mine are out of kilter.

Yeah, I'll update every five orbits. At the rate I'm playing, that could be another full year getting to the 100 orbit mark. That should be over 100 thousand hands in those 2.000 games.

Speaking of Ace-King, suited or not, I honestly think this hand is over rated. It is a great hand pre flop and has a lot more outs than a pocket pair of aces. However, once the flop is shown, it will usually suck sewer water. That is also the opinion of our local poker club.

I have to check the Internet, maybe for the next update. I remember seeing something about the frequency of getting pocket aces. That stat should be the same for any pocket pair.

I still think there is a strong element of luck in poker. I went 9 games today and hit the money in three. ( one third and two fifths) In one game, I had more hands played, (30), and more hands won, (14), than the other eight games combined. The number of hands, 113 for the good game and 330 for the other eight. How I hate group 8 hands.

Had pocket aces cracked when I went all-in pre flop by somebody with 7-4 off suit. You have to laugh, or you'll cry. Flop was a rainbow, 5-6-8. Cannot tell you how many times somebody will need a card to win against me and it hits. Don't even get me started on the runner-runner hands I've lost today. Oh well, tomorrow is another chance.
 
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Thu Jul 19, 2012, 01:21 AM
(#8)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cairn Destop View Post
Every time I try talking stats with people, they give me the cold sholder saying "it isn't real since it is for play money." My thinking is the RNG doesn't know if it is real or not. Thus the odds should be the same, which is why I'm posting these numbers. Let those who dis the play money side provide their numbers or claim mine are out of kilter.

Yeah, I'll update every five orbits. At the rate I'm playing, that could be another full year getting to the 100 orbit mark. That should be over 100 thousand hands in those 2.000 games.

Speaking of Ace-King, suited or not, I honestly think this hand is over rated. It is a great hand pre flop and has a lot more outs than a pocket pair of aces. However, once the flop is shown, it will usually suck sewer water. That is also the opinion of our local poker club.

I have to check the Internet, maybe for the next update. I remember seeing something about the frequency of getting pocket aces. That stat should be the same for any pocket pair.

I still think there is a strong element of luck in poker. I went 9 games today and hit the money in three. ( one third and two fifths) In one game, I had more hands played, (30), and more hands won, (14), than the other eight games combined. The number of hands, 113 for the good game and 330 for the other eight. How I hate group 8 hands.

Had pocket aces cracked when I went all-in pre flop by somebody with 7-4 off suit. You have to laugh, or you'll cry. Flop was a rainbow, 5-6-8. Cannot tell you how many times somebody will need a card to win against me and it hits. Don't even get me started on the runner-runner hands I've lost today. Oh well, tomorrow is another chance.

Biggest leak I see with people and AK,suited or no,is the tendency to underplay the hand pre-flop and overplay it (on misses) post-flop.

As to the validity of stats play money versus real all I can say is that I see the same beats,the same board textures and the same basic frequency of what I get dealt for starters in play money as I did in real money games.

Kung Fu is Kung Fu.
 
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Mon Jul 23, 2012, 10:05 AM
(#9)
Shodan388's Avatar
Since: Sep 2011
Posts: 75
I've often thought play money has plenty of value for those wishing to test out theories, and just generally practice. Obviously, you do tend to get a real mix of player types, and for me, being a tight player means that I tend to do very well in the play money games, since quite a few people play loose.

I then started reasoning to myself that the low value cash / sit and go's would still attract the loose, 'easier' players, but in actual fact, I found it considerably harder. It seemed that merely going from play money to the lowest level of micro-stakes offered a tighter, more competitive opponent. I also considered if the higher value games would statistically show less 'bad plays', such as like the other day when I was in the small blind (just the blinds left in the hand), and the big blind called my hefty raise with 69os. Yes, I lost the hand.

Thus, I currently conclude that the reality is that at any level, you'll still see the 'wrong plays' being made, regardless of someone's bank balance.

Last edited by Shodan388; Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:07 AM..
 
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Fri Jul 27, 2012, 06:26 PM
(#10)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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I have to agree. The play money games do encourage the ATC player to go to the river. It is why I'll not push the Ace-King combo. I prefer saving my chips if it misses. As you can see from the stats, my hands miss quite frequently as I fold as many hands as I play.

One comment made earlier noted how the Ace-King happened more frequently than any other top ten combo. That shouldn't surprise anyone since there are so many more possibilities. The other combinations require the two cards be suited. Think it is something like four times as many possibilities due to that suit factor.

Based on my personal experience, the higher chip play SNG games do draw more of the serious players, and better play. However, you cannot escape the crazies. Just to name a few you can meet: (dare anyone to say they are not in cheque play)

1 ---- The ATC flop player. This person will call anything to see the flop. The better their initial two cards, the more determined they are to see the flop. Not likely to call an all-in preflop.

2 ---- The quickie player. This person wants to establish a chip lead right at hand one. They are most likely to go all-in pre flop if they have royalty or better in their hands. These players have a set chip goal, such as $6,000, and will sit out once they hit this sum.

3 ---- The golden Ace. If this player gets an ace, you cannot get them off the hand. If both cards pair on the flop, they call anything.

4 ---- The play maniac. At least this player will warn you he is going to go all-in. Standard reason is "who cares." This is probably special to chip games.

5 ---- River rats. Give this player any hope of getting a great hand and he will call almost anything to see the river. This is the (explatives deleted) player who hits that two to four-out hand.

6 ---- Flush rat. A special river rat player. Will stay to the river if they have a chance of getting a flush. The higher their possible flush, the greater the chance they will call to the river. Will fold like a wet noodle if they miss the flush.

7 ---- Straight rat. No, this isn't a gay issue. This player will hold to the river if they have a 4-card straight after the flop. Most determined to call if it is open at both ends. Like the flush rat, they fold if they miss.

8 ---- Pair power. This player becomes harder to outbid the higher their pair. They might fold low pairs pre flop, but will often call anything in the hopes of catching the set. From middle pair, say the 8-8, and higher, they will sometimes call, or force, the all-in play.


Let me give a comparison between the lower SNG game, the $300 + $20, and my current level of $2,000 + $110. In the lower games, you made final table in less than 20 hands. I find you get to FT after 50 hands. In the lower games, I sometimes made it to the money by never playing a hand. That doesn't happen in this level.
 
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Sat Jul 28, 2012, 08:39 AM
(#11)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
The Hedgehog is always on top of the stats and I assume you are posting this to show the members that it truly is random.

Your stats are 100% accurate

I was wondering if you could add the VPIP/PFR , WWSF , WTSD , WSD I'm asking for these numbers because being dealt AA 86% of the time can't show how you play them whereas the numbers I am asking for will shed better light on a players style and also give great comparison for them to see if they might be playing them well.

Mine are as follows for AA only ( 1302 times I've been dealt them )

94.85%/88.86% VPIP/PFR
88.73% Won when saw flop
65.44% went to show down
83.95% won at show down

Thanks

 
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Sat Jul 28, 2012, 10:35 AM
(#12)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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If I could get those stats, I would gladly provide them. Everything I get is without any of the tracking software that is out there. I'm pulling everything you see off the "stats" segment of the game.

I once considered VPIP as a guestimate, taking the average of hands played by eliminating the BB, but that didn't make sense to me. It didn't shed any light on my play.

Didn't think of those other stats. I can see the number of wins with and without showdown being valuable to determining a player's style. I'll assume you mean the player providing those stats as I cannot see how you can get them for others. Not sure how they would help me improve, but I'll start collecting those with games 401 and onward. Can always use some advice.




You are so right about my purpose in all this number crunching. We all hear about the RNG being anything but random. It's always talk, no facts. Well, I'm posting these numbers as a way to say it is an honest deal. I also provide the means to duplicate my study and prove it to yourself.

Here is how I'm doing it:

Piece of paper with three columns and ten rows. Each row is one of the top ten hands, which are the group one and two hands. The columns are - win - loss - folded. I then complile the totals on an Excel spreadsheet. (one page of paper will cover 100 SNG games)

Other stats obtained from game: number of hands, game start time, and game end time.
 
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Sat Jul 28, 2012, 11:46 AM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
Just for your info, these numbers are for cash games only
Here are mine for AA only ( 1288 times )

96.43%/90.06% VPIP/PFR
88.50% Won when saw flop
52.65% went to showdown
78.43% won at showdown

The value of the last 2 numbers (showdown) being smaller can be explain by playing CAP games. Since CAP games are often all in pre flop.

Thanks for the numbers Cairn
 
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Sat Jul 28, 2012, 12:04 PM
(#14)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
My point is simply that it doesn't matter whether you believe it is rigged or totally random because there is astounding evidence that all hands are dealt out over large samples the same amount of times to each player.

Variance happens and happens to all of us but it is being able to study and play and learn and increase our win rate etc or changing the way we play AA ( not hust AA of course but all hands ) to increase the wtsd and wsd rate on all hands.

The study part is key because it will help us understand where we played them and how many opened ahead of us etc.

It is vital that we study our own game and fix our own leaks before me move on to reading others etc but all of these things will not change variance..... variance is real both good and bad but it is how we handle that variance that will effect us the greatest in the long run.

Lastly wherever there is the opportunity to make large sums of money there will be cheats and people trying to maximise the money into their corner..... just ask bernie madoff and ummmmmmm Full Tilt poker.

 
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Sun Jul 29, 2012, 02:50 PM
(#15)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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Been doing a lot of internet surfing for information regarding some of the statistics on this game. As ususal, there is a lot of stuff out there and the old hedgehog has had to wade hip deep in lots of numbers. Most isn't too interesting, but I did find some data of interest that does relate to my stats.

Now I know my database is somewhat limited at this time, but here are some numbers to track for those with bigger hand histories. I'll have to recheck when I finish my 100 orbits. Now 100K hands is by no means an extensive number of hands statistically speaking, but lets give the old hedgehog some slack and see how his numbers compare.

I want to see I come to these statistical norms. The closer I am, the more confidence you can have in the RNG. That said, a number cruncher's delight:

pocket aces ------ 0.45% (a specific pocket pair)
Ace - King --------- 1.20% (makes sense, lots more combos possible.)
Ace - King suited - 0.15%
pocket pairs ------- 5.90% (any pocket pair)


I do believe my pocket aces, (0.47%), is within the range of reasonableness. Haven't had time to check out these other numbers, but some of the other numbers I've seen regarding getting that big hand makes me understand how easy it is to loose.
 
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Fri Aug 10, 2012, 01:18 PM
(#16)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
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Statistics for 400 games or 20 orbits. I am feeling so stoked about the results. Anticipate somebody reminding me this is chip play and cheques are so different. Prove it. Put your last 400 27-player cash game, all at the same level, next to mine. Give me your numbers, 'cause that's the whole purpose of this thing. The RNG doesn't know what you're doing, so show us your stats. Hedgehog will now remove chip from shoulder and will return when I have 500 games. (Most likely after another 4-5 weeks.)





All Games
33,048 ----- hands dealt
09,134 ----- hands played (27.64%)
03,708 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages
40.60% ----- of hand played
11.22% ----- of total hands

My Record
026 games ----- Ist place
019 games ----- 2nd place
034 games ----- 3rd place
036 games ----- 4th place
025 games ----- 5th place

ITM percentage = 35.00%
gain to date = $585,380




ORBIT SCORES
lowest orbit = 132 points
best orbit = 556 points

under 200 points = 3 orbits (lossers)
under 200 points = 3 orbits (winning)
201 - 300 points = 6 orbits
301 - 400 points = 4 orbits
401 - 425 points = 2 orbits
426 - 525 points = 1 orbits
526 - 600 points = 1 orbits

A reminder: It takes a score over 425 points to make it to the top 100 on the Mercury List. On average. A score in excess of 525 points will earn a ticket to the monthly big money playoff game for the Battle of the Planets.







Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

135 -- 021 -- 000 == 865 --- 865 --- AA
123 -- 037 -- 007 == 769 --- 737 --- KK
087 -- 040 -- 008 == 685 --- 644 --- QQ
081 -- 032 -- 034 == 717 --- 551 --- JJ
077 -- 015 -- 037 == 837 --- 597 --- TT
051 -- 014 -- 031 == 785 --- 531 --- AK suited
134 -- 033 -- 124 == 802 --- 460 --- AK off suit
038 -- 016 -- 042 == 704 --- 396 --- AQ suited
040 -- 014 -- 048 == 741 --- 392 --- AJ suited
037 -- 014 -- 045 == 725 --- 385 --- KQ suited

803 -- 236 -- 376 == 773 --- 567 --- Group One and Two Totals

To read this: pocket kings won 123 hands, lost 37 hands, and I folded them 7 times. The winning percentage is 123 over (123 plus 37) The overall percentage is 123 wins over (123 plus 37 plus 7)

Number of hands
0,156 --- AA ----- 11.02% ----- 00.47%
0,167 --- KK ----- 11.80%
0,135 --- QQ ----- 09.54%
0,147 --- JJ ----- 10.39%
0,129 --- TT ----- 09.12%
0,096 --- AK suited ----- 06.78%
0,291 --- AK off suit ----- 20.57%
0,096 --- AQ suited ----- 06.78%
0,102 --- AJ suited ----- 07.21%
0,096 --- KQ suited ----- 06.78%

1,415 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.28%


How to read these numbers: I had pocket aces 156 times, which is 11.02% of my Group One and Two Hands. Pocket aces came up 0.47% of the hands dealt. Overall, the Group One and Two hands accounted for 4.28% of the hands dealt.

185 -- 047 -- 155 == 797 --- 478 --- AK combined ----- 27.35% of the Group One and Two hands.




SPEED
My Average speed = 83 hands per hour
My Average hands per game = 82 hands

Usual speed:
40 - 60 hands an hour = 3 tables
50 - 75 hands an hour = 2 tables
60 - 80 hands an hour = final table
75 - 85 hands an hour = bubble

With enough games, I'm expecting this number to become a firm one.

Last edited by Cairn Destop; Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 10:22 AM..
 
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Thu Aug 23, 2012, 10:20 AM
(#17)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Until the alignment button works, I'll not be reporting any more data. The centering makes me look like a (explative deleted) moron and I take too much pride in what I do to post (censored).


Just learned the hard way that you can edit alignment by using the "go advanced" button. Still wonder what moron decided centering as the default setting.

Last edited by Cairn Destop; Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 10:24 AM.. Reason: added last paragraph - bet its centered
 
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Fri Aug 24, 2012, 09:30 PM
(#18)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
We all know varience is an ugly word. It's even uglier when it happens to you. Well, the old hedgehog had some fun with the ying and yang of poker. Let me give you some numbers from the first twelve games of my 23rd orbit.


583 = number of hands delt.
044 = number of hands played
000 = number of hands won


No, that is not a mistype. The players were very aggressive, with most hands having a pre flop cost of ten times the big blind. As to my cards, I couldn't hit a thing. During that run, my rockets lost twice, my pocket kings five times, and the worse hand for me, pocket tens, lost ten times. Before and since, these hands have served me well.

That's the ying. Now the yang. I finished in the money in six of the next eight games, including a four-game streak. My final score, a very impressive 270 points. At least I thought so.

And now the final numbers for that orbit. Compare the cold to the hot.

1,750 = number of hands delt
0,496 = number of hands played
0,205 = number of hands won

Orbit 24 is almost done. At least I'm positive.
 
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Tue Aug 28, 2012, 10:33 AM
(#19)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
As of today, I'm 25% of the way through my challenge. Pocket aces have me worried. Those are currently doing better than expected. Based on statistics, I might be going into some rough times with that starting hand. Time will tell. And speaking of time to tell, here you go.

Just a few things to say, nothing important. Starting with the next series, I'll be trying a modified multiple table setup. My intention is to play two tables at a time once I go over 200 points for the remainder of that orbit. How about that? The old hedgehog is going to play more than one table at a time. Preparing for the day Americans return to cheque action.

Way my luck runs, I just finished my last 200+ orbit.




Statistics for 500 games or 25 orbits:





All Games
41,275 ----- hands dealt
11,405 ----- hands played (27.63%)
04,608 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages
40.40% ----- of hand played
11.16% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop, which is not exactly the same percentage as VPIP.





If you are unfamiliar with the Battle of the Planets, this is how it works. Low orbits consist of twenty consecutive games. High orbits consist of one hundred games. An orbit must be done in one week. I ignore that part. Points are scored by finishing in the money.

Based on my play these last five orbits, I should be nicknamed "Bubbleboy." I'm getting sick and tired of reaching the final table as nine of nine. If bubble scored points, I would never be in danger of a zero orbit as more than half my final table failures see me going out as six of six.


My Record
033 games ----- Ist place (80 points)
024 games ----- 2nd place (58 points)
038 games ----- 3rd place (38 points)
045 games ----- 4th place (22 points)
037 games ----- 5th place (18 points)

ITM percentage = 35.40%
gain to date = $726,460




ORBIT SCORES
lowest orbit = 132 points
best orbit = 556 points
winning orbits = 22 / 25 (88%)

under 200 points = 03 orbits (lossers)
under 200 points = 03 orbits (winning)
200 - 299 points = 10 orbits
300 - 399 points = 05 orbits
401 - 425 points = 02 orbits
426 - 525 points = 01 orbits
526 - 600 points = 01 orbits







Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,173 -- 024 -- 000 == 878 --- 878 --- AA
0,160 -- 044 -- 008 == 784 --- 755 --- KK
0,112 -- 046 -- 011 == 709 --- 663 --- QQ
0,102 -- 043 -- 041 == 703 --- 548 --- JJ
0,096 -- 027 -- 053 == 780 --- 545 --- TT
0,061 -- 016 -- 040 == 792 --- 521 --- AK suited
0,167 -- 041 -- 149 == 803 --- 468 --- AK off suit
0,050 -- 018 -- 056 == 735 --- 403 --- AQ suited
0,049 -- 017 -- 062 == 742 --- 383 --- AJ suited
0,043 -- 015 -- 052 == 741 --- 391 --- KQ suited

1,013 -- 291 -- 472 == 777 --- 570 --- Group One and Two Totals


If anyone saw my variance report, check out pocket tens. Since that orbit, I am yet to see pocket tens. However, prior to Orbit 23, I never saw the Ace - Queen suited hand. So all the hits since my last report happened in twenty-eight games.

That kind of wild frequency can explain some of the comments bantered about the table. I use to challenge people that said they "never" got (insert hand). Now I know there can be long stretches without these hands appearing as your hole cards.

I'm not going to do it, but sometimes I do wonder how long it is between certain combinations. Let me amend that, winning combinations. I see such wonderful combos as royalty - 6 or less unsuited all too often, and it seems to happen during the bubble phase.



Number of hands
0,197 --- AA ----- 11.09% ----- 00.48%
0,212 --- KK ----- 11.94%
0,169 --- QQ ----- 09.52%
0,186 --- JJ ----- 10.47%
0,176 --- TT ----- 09.91%
0,117 --- AK suited ----- 06.59%
0,357 --- AK off suit ----- 20.10%
0,124 --- AQ suited ----- 06.98%
0,128 --- AJ suited ----- 07.21%
0,110 --- KQ suited ----- 06.19%

1,776 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.30%


0,228 -- 057 -- 189 == 800 --- 481 --- AK combined ----- 26.69%
 
Old
Default
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 01:27 PM
(#20)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Got to try playing two tables at once. Gave it up. Did well in the five games, finishing in the money three times, but I lost the enjoyment of the game. Something to be said about that element when you're not involved in a cheque game. It became too much of a hastle maintaining my statistics, following the play, and conversations.

I know I can play three cash tables at once. Did it in rings before Black Friday. Thing is, nobody ever talks in those games and it is strictly the cards. Every player is super serious. I can adjust to that system when there's real money involved.

Chip play is more people focused. You're there to enjoy your game and spend time with friends. Yes, I take it seriously, which might explain my limited success. However, in the end, success means little. Use it to improve your game, but until your style generates money, it has little meaning beyond enjoyment of the game. And that's what is important to me.


Statistics for 600 games or 30 orbits:


All Games
49,626 ----- hands dealt
13,739 ----- hands played (27.69%)
05,505 ----- hands winning

Winning percentages
40.07% ----- of hand played
11.09% ----- of total hands

Hands played is defined as seeing the flop, which is not exactly the same percentage as VPIP. Since I'm drawing from the stats section, and not a tracking software program, not every vital statistic is available.





My Record
037 games ----- Ist place
029 games ----- 2nd place
047 games ----- 3rd place
055 games ----- 4th place
048 games ----- 5th place

ITM percentage = 36.00%
gain to date = $857,280




ORBIT SCORES
lowest orbit = 132 points
best orbit = 556 points
winning orbits = 27 / 30 (90%)

under 200 points = 03 orbits (lossers)
under 200 points = 05 orbits (winning)
200 - 299 points = 11 orbits
300 - 399 points = 06 orbits
401 - 425 points = 02 orbits
426 - 525 points = 02 orbits
526 - 600 points = 01 orbits







Group Numbers

Numbers are presented in the following order: wins - losses - folded. Percentages are winning percentages, which is wins compared to losses, and overall percentage, which is wins over total hands.

0,217 -- 030 -- 000 == 879 --- 879 --- AA
0,185 -- 051 -- 008 == 784 --- 758 --- KK
0,141 -- 050 -- 014 == 738 --- 688 --- QQ
0,123 -- 051 -- 043 == 707 --- 567 --- JJ
0,109 -- 031 -- 060 == 779 --- 545 --- TT
0,075 -- 019 -- 054 == 798 --- 507 --- AK suited
0,195 -- 055 -- 177 == 780 --- 457 --- AK off suit
0,061 -- 019 -- 065 == 763 --- 421 --- AQ suited
0,063 -- 018 -- 079 == 778 --- 394 --- AJ suited
0,049 -- 017 -- 061 == 742 --- 386 --- KQ suited

1,218 -- 341 -- 561 == 781 --- 575 --- Group One and Two Totals

Remember me saying pocket tens stopped hitting after those first twelve games of orbit #23? Finally got one after 3,389 hands, and I had to fold it to a 75 times big blind bet. That is not a misprint. Had a maniac that went all-in every hand who held the golden horseshoe. By the end of the third round, he decided not to play anymore. He had a little over $35K with 18 players remaining. Do the math, there was less than $6K split among 17 players. His trash beat pocket rockets seven times. I fell out as number 8 when the maniac made an appearance. My pocket aces lost to 8-3 off when he filled in the straight.


Number of hands
0,247 --- AA ----- 11.65% ----- 00.50%
0,244 --- KK ----- 11.51%
0,205 --- QQ ----- 09.67%
0,217 --- JJ ----- 10.24%
0,200 --- TT ----- 09.43%
0,148 --- AK suited ----- 06.98%
0,427 --- AK off suit ----- 20.14%
0,145 --- AQ suited ----- 06.84%
0,160 --- AJ suited ----- 07.55%
0,127 --- KQ suited ----- 05.99%

2,120 --- Group One and Two Hands ----- xxx ----- 04.27%


0,270 -- 074 -- 231 == 785 --- 470 --- AK combined ----- 27.12%

Want to know what is scaring me right now? Those pocket aces are beating the odds. I'm seeing them too often and they are winning too many times. Varience will be the odds going back to the statistical norm.

Somebody told me that pocket aces comes up once every 221 hands. I haven't yet confirmed the validity of that number. However, if it is accurate, that means any specific pocket pair will hit that many times. So here's another fun fact to crunch into the gist mill.

AA = once in 201 hands
KK = once in 203 hands
QQ = once in 242 hands
JJ = once in 229 hands
TT = once in 248 hands


--------------------------------------------------------

Somebody asked me via PM why I'm doing this. Two reasons:

1 --- If you ever meet somebody who tells you the site is rigged, point him to this thread. Remember, I initially started keeping these stats to prove the site cheated the players. A funny thing happened on the way to the forum. I wound up proving the RNG is within reason of the statistical norm. If it isn't, prove it with facts.

2 --- This is my way of bragging. I'm not a great player, I'm somewhere in the average yahoo class. I'm here to enjoy the game. So it's a way of showing off my accomplishments. Yeah, it is for chips, but as Moxie keeps reminding me, one day we Americans will be playing cheques once more.

Last edited by Cairn Destop; Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 12:40 AM..
 

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