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WPL 3 barrells

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WPL 3 barrells - Thu Jul 19, 2012, 07:54 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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This was yesterday in the WPL. The villain has played reasonably without getting out of line, but I think she is a bit of a calling station. It's tough to dislodge her so I was quite nervous about making this river bluff.
It's not a spectacular hand but I haven't seen any bluffs posted on here ( in the short time I have been here) so I am wondering what the general consensus on such play is?




I raise pre, c-bet the flop, bet the turn... she must have something to keep calling? On the river I am not willing to give up this pot and be crippled. If she calls and I am beat so be it. My hand has some showdown value (not much).


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 
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Thu Jul 19, 2012, 10:50 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi SothAAAA!

With AKs, I'm going to make my standard open raise, to 3BB+1BB for each limper... so I'll raise to 360. Unfortunately, someone calls behind, so I have to play the rest of the hand out of position.

The flop brings three coordinated undercards. I now have the choice of either making a c-bet or checking. The majority of the time here, I'm going to make a c-bet, so the opp won't know whether or not I hit the board or started with a pocket pair. The sizing of my c-bet will be 1/2 pot or 510. I don't want to bet less than this, as if the opp has a 2 or 6, then I would give them the correct odds to draw at an open-ended straight.

The turn pairs the board, but gives me more outs with a flush draw. With possibly 15 outs, I'm going to make another bet here and size it at 1/2 pot again... like I had a made hand. If the opp was a calling station, then I'd check here, as the opp would most likely check behind and I want to see the river.

The river totally misses me. I've got 2 choices. If the opp has been playing tighter and could fold, then I'm going to shove the river, as any smaller bet would look fishy and out of line. If the opp was loose and would call anything, then I'd check here and hope that they had a weaker ace than me. The determining factor for me would be my read on the opp... which was not provided.

Reads in these types of situations are going to be the determining factor on what to do and without them being provided.. there is no way to determine what the best play would be.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jul 20, 2012, 09:16 AM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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hi John,
Thanks for your analysis.
The trouble with this sort of bet sizing is that it often commits your entire stack in one hand. That's great when you win the pot, but not so good when you lose it.
My read is that the opp likes to call when she is on a draw, so I think she probably has an A here and is hoping to make a straight. Your suggestion of checking the turn is a definite possibility, but I am less likely to be able to make a convincing bluff on the river if I miss, without a bet here. I thought that by making a half pot size bet it would force her to fold since it is very expensive just to see the river. A call with just a wheel draw?? How can that be profitable play?
The river is a blank and if opp is drawing for a straight then I am possibly ahead, or perhaps they have a small pair that they might fold to my shove.


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 
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Fri Jul 20, 2012, 11:32 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi SothAAAA!

What I mean by pricing out the opponent is that I bet enough to make it a negative EV play for the opponent to draw at me. It's not that I'm trying to get them to fold, I'm trying to make them pay a higher % into the pot than what their hand equity is.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jul 20, 2012, 12:10 PM
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SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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hey John,
if not to get them to fold, then why?


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 
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Fri Jul 20, 2012, 12:19 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi SothAAAA!

When I'm playing a hand, either as a made hand or a bluff, I want to play them the same way and make the same bets. If I would change anything when I'm bluffing, then it would be a tell to the opponent that 'something isn't quite right'. Due to this, I would play any hand that I want to make a bluff with, as if I had the made hand. I'll make the same checks or raises, and the same amounts.... this way, the opp won't know whether I'm really trying to get them to fold... or to extract value from them. I want all of my bets to look like the same value bets that I would make with a made hand, and all of these will be made to make any draws for the opp be a -EV play.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Fri Jul 20, 2012, 12:44 PM
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ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
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ur play looked fine to me. i would have checked the river since u said ur opponent was a bit of a calling station and therefore unlikely to bluff the river herself.
 
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Fri Jul 20, 2012, 02:31 PM
(#8)
SothAAAA's Avatar
Since: Jun 2012
Posts: 55
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hey John,
ah, ok, that makes sense. I was thinking that you meant the opp would consider the EV etc, which I doubt she would have.

hi Ketchup,
Thanks. If you check the river what hand are you expecting opp to have? She seems to be a calling station and may well have been drawing to a straight. Do you think that sort of player would lay down a small pair on the river to my shove? or do you think my AK was probably ahead?


~'If you want to win... you have to have White Magic.'- PH~
 

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