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AA - I guess I'd better muck

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AA - I guess I'd better muck - Sun Jul 22, 2012, 09:17 PM
(#1)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Hey guys!

This one happened in the PSO Open Skill League. My main focus is to hit a good position in the monthly rank, so I want to stay as long as possible in the torunament.

There were about 6000 players at this point ( of the 10000 entrants ).

I guess I should be mucking every hand ( including AA ) until we're down to around 2000 players. Cuz a badbeat like this will cost me A LOT of points in the rank ( I'm now around 200 ). And those negative points wil be hard to get back



Thanks !
 
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Mon Jul 23, 2012, 12:26 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi fp_boss77!

This one's actually a tough one for me. If I do go out early in a league game, then I'm going out with aces, or maybe KK to someone shoving that is known to play lesser hands.

This, being later in the month, WILL play into my decision. If I am at the very top of the leaderboard, then I'm going to muck AA to the shove (espeically if I knew that others would be shoving behind me). I say that, because if I lose (which could happen easier if anyone behind me calls too), I'm going to get a HUGE negative league point total.... that could cost me leaderboard money at the end of the month.

If it was toward the beginning of the month, when I would lose less league points due to my overall point total being lower, then I'm calling this every single time. If I win, I get a deep run in the tourney, if I lose, then I don't lose as much.

If I was in the middle of a pay level and needed to gain points to move up in payouts, where if I lost, I didn't lose much toward my end of the month payout..... then I'm calling too.

If I was in your point situation... where even falling back a couple hundred places won't drop me from a $5 end-of-month payout.... I'm never folding AA preflop.

If this was a cash tourney, I'm calling this 100% of the time.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Mon Jul 23, 2012, 07:04 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
I have to agree with all JWK says above -

I really want to play AA as often as possible in tournaments, even the Open Skill League, but the OSL is a specific case and the decision will be based not just on trying to win this tournament but on improving or protecting my league position - for me, given the early tournament stage, our position at this table, current league standing and being 2/3rd through the month I would muck most times. (see edit below)

Although AA wins around 80% in the long run, here we potentially have 4-5-6 players in the pot. The limpers might or might not fold, the shover is all in and crucially the deep stacked blinds to act are obviously not averse to getting it in and could take a 1500 chip hit. We probably have seen what hands they played to win those early stacks - OK we have them all crushed with AA but we cannot avoid a multiway pot - so our equity will fall down to around 60-65%.

That is not good enough to risk a tournament early in the OSL and take a big hit that will take 3 reasonably good finishes to retrieve, unless I have a very good reason to think the loss will not seriously damage my month end prize potential, or that the big stack I win 60%-65% of the time will gain me a very deep finish and a real boost to my league prize. That will depend on my current league position, the points bracket for the current prize level and crucially as JWK says the time of the month.

The number of tournaments you can play between now and the end of the month will not be enough to be in this type of situation often enough for the variance to be overcome - so you need to win this hand to improve your league situation drastically - a loss will take several reasonably good finishes (eg around 900th-1200th) to recover.

As John says - at the beginning of the month - say the first week to ten days - when the total score amassed is a lesser factor as well as league position - this would be much more playable with a lower points loss and more time to make a comeback over the remaining month.

Good luck

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan

I have to edit this as I have now looked at the league standings - and in this specific situation I see no advantage to NOT playing this hand - your points loss has not damaged your potential that much - (your $1 is 'safe' down to 500th place and your next jump is at 79th) yes you lost 30 points and 40 places but you need to get some deep finishes to move up to the real top end of the prizes - outside the top 100 I would play this hand - the damage between 100th-200th place when we lose is retrievable, the potential boost of a very deep run is worth the risk imo.

This shows the need to be aware of your position and the potential points hit you will take before you get into the tournament - I would always have a plan before entering these tourneys - knowing how many points I was ahead/behind of the prize jumps and having decided how much risk I would be willing to take at any stage to try to improve/protect my position.


Ed

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 07:30 AM..
 
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Mon Jul 23, 2012, 12:57 PM
(#4)
fp_boss77's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 490
Thanks guys !

It's really hard to take a bad beat with Aces, but it's ok.

I just finished about 540 of the 10000 entrants on the last OSL right now, I guess I'm recovering.

 

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