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$1/45 99

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$1/45 99 - Tue Jul 24, 2012, 12:13 PM
(#1)
Jonny9691's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 71
there are 15 left,
button, sb and bb all tag'ish
button unknown

im getting desperate, surely this is ok all though not ideal

 
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Tue Jul 24, 2012, 02:49 PM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
9BB's left this is a 1000% no-brainer ship every time jonny. Nothing to even think about here.

I try never to get too wrapped up in where I stand in a 45 man until we're hard on the bubble at the FT but even that begs the ship here as you have the 6th stack of 7 on your table and with 8 runners on the other table you're probably sitting 12 or 13 in the field.

You have fold equity against everyone to follow you here,even the big stack in the SB. If we get everyone to fold here and scoop 625 chips that's a great result for us and will boost our stack almost 25% and put us more in line with the shorter stacks on the table which puts a little more pressure on them.

You don't show what the villain had here,nor the result. Really if I'm shipping 99 in this spot I'm hoping to be called by anything that's not an over pair. If I run into 1010+ then just unlucky and load up the next game. If I'm up against 2 overs then I'm roughly a 55-45% favorite and will take that flip at this stage every time. This is where being properly bank rolled to truly grind a level comes into play,so you CAN be free to play for these narrow advantage spots over the large sample. If we're up against an over/under non paired hand or any under pair then we're high fiving our monitor.

No way you ever fold here,you don't have enough chips behind to make a standard raise and then ever be folding your hand to any play back pre flop or on a bad board for you post flop. Don't let me ever see you post a hand where you flat in this spot. What does that leave?

Shipping is 1000% the only correct play here.
 
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Tue Jul 24, 2012, 03:06 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Jonny9691!

With the only exception of there being enough players with a short enough stack that I'll get ITM within the next orbit (which for these would basically be never at this point, but I did have it happen once), I'm going to ship-it here with 9BB.
I'm looking for a place to if not double up, then to pick up the blinds/antes without a fight (which is almost 1/4 of my stack). If I get called, then the majority of the time I'm in a race to double up. There will be some situations where I'm dominated by a larger pair, but there are situations too where I'll be called by a smaller pair and have them dominated.

This is a good example of why bankroll managment is important, as I WANT to be in this type of a situation accumulating chips in a +EV situation. Yes, I'm going to lose a number of them, but the reward here of a deep run and most likely getting me ITM from winning the ones that I do is well worth the risk.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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