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To shove or not to shove

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To shove or not to shove - Mon Jul 30, 2012, 01:38 PM
(#1)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Well it has been a while but due to breaking my shoulder unable to play golf, football or run and not wishing to have a zebra like suntan I decided to get back to poker. Nothing too serious, 25nl decimated my bankroll and I have no intention of depositing again after a year and a half so I opted for the fishy waters of 25 cent 45 mans to while away the hours.

Pretty happy about my game, consistently making final tables, and considering the small investment, I have been using the Space Gravy approach to bubble play.

However, I seem to be consistently on the wrong side of suck outs (one of the main reasons I stopped playing in early June). You can make all the plus ev plays in world but if the cards don't run your way it can be extremely frustrating.

So to the hand:

We have just reached the final table, I have been playing fairly tight, 15% of hands, 6 of 8 won at showdown and 6 without showdown. Tracy is a typical calling station, from any position and the chip leader elchi will play any 2 cards, bluffs, and has been at my table the whole session. He has magically won hands that Houdini himself would be proud of

I get a free look at the flop and hit two pair, elchi leads out and from experience I know he has hit a part of the board, maybe even the straight, so just call behind. The turn is a magic card for me, the 8 would haven better though, and I am pretty sure I am way ahead, as elchi has bet his small pairs pre flop. His raise does worry me and I actually thought about holdem ace folding his set of tens, but I cannot pass this edge and I shove knowing full well he will call with much weaker.

So I think my play is +EV but it would be interesting to see if anyone can guess how the hand turned out and what the villain turned over.

cheers,

tc

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
 
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Mon Jul 30, 2012, 04:20 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hey Top!

That sounds painful.. wouldn't wish that on anyone.

With two rags in the BB, I'm very happy to see a flop for free hoping to hit a part of the flop.

The flop is about the best I could hope for, as I hit both cards for two pair. The chip leader in the SB now leads into me for 330. If I call, it will be 18% equity for the last opp to call, which would price out a gutshot draw and also even an OESD if the opp has 9T (they would have 8 outs for 16%). Due to this, I'm fine with calling here, as if either opp is drawing, they have priced themselves into a -EV play.

The turn gives me a full house and the opp leads into me for 3/4 pot. This bet definitely prices out everything. With the player behind me being a calling station, I'm actually going to call the turn instead of raising. I want to give them the opportunity to put more chips into the pot, where they could possibly fold to a shove. If they call, the pot will be sufficiently large that both opps should gladly get them all in on almost any river, which is my ultimate goal. By calling here too, if the one scare card on the river shows (7), I'm also have a way out of the hand if the SB shoves.

Yikes! The river brings a 7. On any other river card, I'm shoving, as the pot's large enough that anyone in the hand should call. With it being a 7, I'm going to call any smaller bets or muck to a shove. I do have showdown value here, but a 7 is well within the range of ATC.

With the villain playing ATC, I could see anything from 27 to a pocket pair to anything in-between.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Jul 30, 2012, 04:23 PM
(#3)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
Welcome back topthecat

I think calling flop is fine as it disguises the strength of our hand, re-raising elchi202 on the flop is fine if he is the type of player to double you up with a marginal holding like 8x,75,76 etc.

I don't agree with shoving the turn, we have turned a full boat vs one fish and one player were not so sure about, so I like to flat elchi202's turn bet to induce the fish to come along behind us, there is no bad cards we can see on the turn so why would we want to scare people out? We want allll them chippy's because we are greedy

Call turn, shove over the top of any bet on the river is how I would have played the hand.
The more I look at it the more I don't like shoving the turn, I flat call here almost every time to get some chips out of trace1964, as he/she is going to call with all sorts of garbage that is already drawn dead.

The only hand im worried about is 77 and the likely hood of either of these guys holding 77 is incredibly thin.


Villain had 78 ?

I wish you a speedy recovery with the shoulder my friend!

Cheers, Chris.
 
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Mon Jul 30, 2012, 04:31 PM
(#4)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
The shove (on the turn) is mandatory - what you going to do, fold it?
And what he turned over... I would like to say 72s, but A7s is probably a better guess?
 
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Mon Jul 30, 2012, 04:46 PM
(#5)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Ugly river card, I feel your pain for this one. I'd probably be putting the villian on 78 or 76, as I think he would have raised with an A.

Tough break.

 
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Mon Jul 30, 2012, 05:17 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks for the replies and well wishes everyone! Joy nailed it! Chew was pretty close too. I wanted to hide the river card but messed that part up.

I shoved the turn believing that Trac would call too if she had a part of the board and I doubt very much if I could have folded my lower set and got away from it on the river even with two pair on the board.



Cheers,

tc
 
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Coolers - Tue Jul 31, 2012, 08:46 AM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
We have just reached the final table, I have been playing fairly tight, 15% of hands, 6 of 8 won at showdown and 6 without showdown. Tracy is a typical calling station, from any position and the chip leader elchi will play any 2 cards, bluffs, and has been at my table the whole session.
This happens to be a set-up hand; these are the hands you want to be on the flip side of this outcome.

Flop:
Two pair is a very vulnerable hand; I would raise elchi202’s post-flop bet (around 2 ½ times). If this loses trace1964, so be it.

Turn:
If elchi202 donks into me, I would just call (unless I know he’s paying me off if I raise, or shove). If he checks to me, I’m making a smallish bet (on the + side of 1/3 the pot), unless I know he’s calling a larger bet.

River:
With the pot so bloated by this time, there’s no going back – the balance of the stacks are going in.

Coolers happen – starting with 37BB, and vs. this villain, the stacks are going in by the river, no matter how this is played out.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Tue Jul 31, 2012, 01:01 PM
(#8)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Nice analysis King!

Thanks,

TC
 

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