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AQ folded to tight player

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AQ folded to tight player - Tue Jul 31, 2012, 10:05 PM
(#1)
dannyb198888's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 94
So the player to my right has stats of 16% PFR and 4% 3-bet over around 35 hands.

With these stats I thought about it for a minute and I put him on pocket Qs with those stats and the way he played.

Was this the right move?


Last edited by dannyb198888; Tue Jul 31, 2012 at 10:08 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 01, 2012, 08:25 AM
(#2)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
danny i don't like your flat pre flop! AQs looks pretty but you don't complete the action here and in fact give great odds for the pre flop limpers to come along. Either fold or 4 bet! We shouldn't be playing OOP like this. What is your flop , turn and riv move if we are flatting?
First of all if you believe him to be strong as per your read then fold as you are a 60/40 dog probably at best. I believe you have insufficient evidence to make that read though because 35 hands is nothing. It is likely 1 3 bet and you don't tell us what the circumstances were that caused that 3 bet do you see what I mean!

How do you determine he is tight? 16% or 5/35 hands raising is not tight in the least! What position was he raising from when he did raise in those 35 hands? What is his VPIP in those same 35 hands as it is likely higher than 16% and therfore I would not classify him as a tight player.

 
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Wed Aug 01, 2012, 06:48 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Dannyb,

Tricky spot here.

A few conflicting reads I guess. 16% PFR is one the high side and definately has some room to fold to a 3bet. But he is raising from the SB so he will be OOP and not raising a huge amount meaning he probably expects calls from atleast one of the limpers, so this means his true range might be a little less than 16% also 35 hands isn't a huge sample size. (But enough for an indication. VPIP would also help in this spot to see how aggressive he is.

I think we have two options.

Option 1) Flat call, we have position on the raiser. This does allow both limpers very good prices to see the flop though and given they are limpers I think we see a 4way flop here quite alot which isn't great for AQs.

Option 2) 3bet. I think to around 2100 chips or so. This gets rid of both limpers the majority of the time. This puts the pressure back on the SB. He now has to decide is he's commiting to this pot. If he 4bets it will show alot of strength and I can comfortable fold my AQs knowing I'm not ahead. Given I already had 250 chips in there this option is only costing me 1850. The times he folds and we pick up the pot we win 1770 that is in the pot already. The problem here comes when he flat calls. we get a pot of about 5k chips and he only has 6.5k behind. We're in a tricky spot here, but we still have position and initiative in the hand. We'd need to see the flop and assess our equity.

I think I would tend towards the 3bet depending on the player. But 16% PFR sounds high enough to me that this guy can find room for a fold. Would be interested to know his VPIP.

As it plays on the turn. The queen is a tough card for us, looks good but is it really. If bad hari checks we can bet for value. But once he bets it's hard to find a hand he bets with here but not the flop that we beat. I can see QQ as you say but that would make the turn card the case Q so unlikely, I think some KQ or KJ also or a slow played AK . With the way we've played the flop cheaply I think folding is a good option here and adhers to a catious approach we've taken preflop.

Cheers
Andy




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Wed Aug 01, 2012, 08:35 PM
(#4)
ChewMe1's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 574
hey dannyb

I think Andy's analysis covers everything here but il give you my two cents.

In this particular spot I like the way you played it and I would of played it the same way A LOT of the time... ( given that villain is tight )

However sometimes I would think it's best to 3bet, I dont expect good players to be 3x'ing 2 limpers from the small blind position without a high pair very often at all/if at all. So what I do here is player dependant... if the guy is a loose losing player and we have seen him raise previously in similar situations then I will be happy to 3bet and take the pot down a lot of the time and if villain shoves then were going to get it in 35bb's deep or not.

If we 3bet the AQ and then fold to a shove then we are bluffing, we may aswell of made the 3bet with 72.

I'm flat calling the raise 7 or 8 times out of 10 and 3betting 2 or 3 times out of 10.

Interesting spot, in a vacuum I think you played it fine. Cheers, Chris.
 
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Wed Aug 01, 2012, 09:35 PM
(#5)
dannyb198888's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 94
Thanks for the replies guys.

I believe his VPIP was around 35%, so pretty high. Considering his PFR was only half of this I first figured he limps a lot and raises only with big hands. In my eyes I figured 16% PFR was on the tighter side, but I see why you would say it is on the looser side.

My other thought was that the limpers were going to fold and so it would be a 2-way pot giving me better odds to take the pot. (I was wrong haha).

It confused me that he would check the King high board, but then bet out when the Queen came. In my mind he was either slow playing a King (AK, KK, KQ) or had pocket Queens.

Any advice you want to add would be helpful
 
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Wed Aug 01, 2012, 11:48 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
Hi,

Very nice hand for discussion danny, it's an interesting spot, and great discussion!

Personally I think both lines (3-betting or flatting) have their own merits and more definitive info would perhaps help swing the decision one way or the other.

If the villain were a loose aggressive spewtard, I would prefer to 3b and be willing to get it in with him if he continues. The info given doesn't really state this, and it's over a small sample, so I'm not very comfortable getting it in pre here against a 35 bb stack who is probably strong... He's squeezing the limpers out of the SB but is doing so with a small raise that indicates either inexperience or a big pair begging for action, and maybe both. If we 3b and he 4b's I'm not comfortable stacking off vs his perceived range but at the same time I hate 3b/folding AQs, like ChewMe said that basically turns out hand into a bluff.

I also think AQs is too strong to just fold in this spot, given that we will have position on the raiser, so I would usually flat call here as well and keep the investment small. We will have bad relative position if the limpers overcall (which usually at least 1 will), but that's not a big concern with AQs on this depth of money, if we hit our hand we'll be committed vs. the limp/callers shorter stacks anyway so they have no leverage on us.

Also if we 3b and get called, and c-bet the flop, this now represents a significant % of our stack, which can really end up putting us in some bad spots when we haven't improved. Although I agree with Chew that if the SB is a good player he is not flatting us out of position, he's 4b or folding. And since his bet sizing seems to want action, I think we're getting 4b jammed a lot if that's the case.

As played, I agree with the post flop actions.

Dave


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