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Is this my fault or was I just unfortunate?

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Is this my fault or was I just unfortunate? - Fri Aug 03, 2012, 04:38 PM
(#1)
RFlush007's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 130
Hi,

Could you review this hand tell me what I could have done differently?
Was I just out of luck?

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/rep...ash=CA0DFCE6B9

....I know anything's possible in poker but look at that board....

I was on full tilt after that hand I had to take a break but I feel better now because that's poker.


Thanks.
 
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Fri Aug 03, 2012, 06:02 PM
(#2)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Yes,run BETTER,lol.

Seriously though I'm fine with checking our option here pre-flop. We have a speculative hand that can flop big for us,have 3 other players in the hand and we're getting to see the flop for free.

At this level (mini-micro games...) when we flop the nuts here I prefer to lead off the betting so as to try and build the pot right away,rather than wait for someone else to do so. You can get called with so many worse hands at these levels that it's almost always better to play fast and start building value in the pot.

In this hand there's really nothing that you can do that you aren't going to get stacked. Once you come over top of his raise he's never folding 2 pair so he comes back at you and you're never folding the nuts so the chips are always going in here.

Just UL is all.
 
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Fri Aug 03, 2012, 07:01 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi RFlush007!

With KQo in the BB, I'm happy to see a flop for free. My hand has potential, but is also one that could easily be behind as of now.

The flop gives me the nut straight. When the SB checks, I want to make a value bet here. With three opps in the hand, there could be higher straight draws and there also could be a full house draw, as 2 pair or a set are well within all of the opps ranges. I want to size my value bet so that if all of the opps call, then ALL of them will have a -EV play to draw at me.
I'll make a 1/2 pot bet here (1225).

The opp with position on me makes about a pot-sized bet. With the best hand, I want to raise this bet, but the question now becomes.... how much should I bet? The reason is that I need to size my bets so that the opp always has a -EV play to draw at me.
With the opp betting 2500, my normal raise would be to between a pot sized raise (7450) and 3X the opp's bet amount (7500).... BUT... this would be the overwhelming majority of my stack, so I'm going to shove here. If the opp calls my shove, then they call 7371 into a pot of 22192 (33.2%). The best they can have is 7 outs (a set), and since they see both streets, each out is worth 4% equity, so they have 28% hand equity... which makes the opp calling a -EV play for them.

By min raising, the opp now has to call 2500 into 12450 (20%) and since both of us have chips behind, there will most likely be a bet on the turn... so they have 14% hand equity here, as they are only guaranteed to see one street. This IS a -EV play for the opp, HOWEVER, they min re-raise.
When they re-raise, my only play since I'm not folding the current nuts, is to shove. This now creates another situation for the opp that we need to see if it's a + or - EV play for them.
They now have to call 2371 chips into a pot of 22192 (10.7%). Their hand equity is now higher though. They are guaranteed to see BOTH streets, so they have 4% equity for each out. With 7 outs, they have 28% hand equity.... that means that this call is a +EV play for the opp.

I'm going to lead bet the flop and if the opp raises, I'm shoving immediately, as I want all of the opps plays to be a -EV for them, not some a -EV play and some a +EV play.

Opps are going to get lucky, as they will almost always have some % of hand equity. Even if it's a small %, they will happen. What I want to do as a poker player is to make the opps make as many -EV plays, so that on average, they will then lose chips with every bet that they make.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Aug 04, 2012, 06:13 AM
(#4)
RFlush007's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
Hi RFlush007!

With KQo in the BB, I'm happy to see a flop for free. My hand has potential, but is also one that could easily be behind as of now.

The flop gives me the nut straight. When the SB checks, I want to make a value bet here. With three opps in the hand, there could be higher straight draws and there also could be a full house draw, as 2 pair or a set are well within all of the opps ranges. I want to size my value bet so that if all of the opps call, then ALL of them will have a -EV play to draw at me.
I'll make a 1/2 pot bet here (1225).

The opp with position on me makes about a pot-sized bet. With the best hand, I want to raise this bet, but the question now becomes.... how much should I bet? The reason is that I need to size my bets so that the opp always has a -EV play to draw at me.
With the opp betting 2500, my normal raise would be to between a pot sized raise (7450) and 3X the opp's bet amount (7500).... BUT... this would be the overwhelming majority of my stack, so I'm going to shove here. If the opp calls my shove, then they call 7371 into a pot of 22192 (33.2%). The best they can have is 7 outs (a set), and since they see both streets, each out is worth 4% equity, so they have 28% hand equity... which makes the opp calling a -EV play for them.

By min raising, the opp now has to call 2500 into 12450 (20%) and since both of us have chips behind, there will most likely be a bet on the turn... so they have 14% hand equity here, as they are only guaranteed to see one street. This IS a -EV play for the opp, HOWEVER, they min re-raise.
When they re-raise, my only play since I'm not folding the current nuts, is to shove. This now creates another situation for the opp that we need to see if it's a + or - EV play for them.
They now have to call 2371 chips into a pot of 22192 (10.7%). Their hand equity is now higher though. They are guaranteed to see BOTH streets, so they have 4% equity for each out. With 7 outs, they have 28% hand equity.... that means that this call is a +EV play for the opp.

I'm going to lead bet the flop and if the opp raises, I'm shoving immediately, as I want all of the opps plays to be a -EV for them, not some a -EV play and some a +EV play.

Opps are going to get lucky, as they will almost always have some % of hand equity. Even if it's a small %, they will happen. What I want to do as a poker player is to make the opps make as many -EV plays, so that on average, they will then lose chips with every bet that they make.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

Thanks JWK,
To be honest I've never really taken all these into consideration when playing. I just try to gain as much chips from the opp as possible whether its (+EV or -EV) and lose a little chips as possible. I find it difficult doing all these calculation in my head during a tournament, but I guess to be a good player I'll just have to get my head around it.

So from your answer I understand the whole +/- EV thing and the fact that I was giving him the right price to call my raises at some point. I just have some questions about your answer:

1. How come they have 7 outs for a set? I calculated 6 (2 9s, 2 Ts & 2 Js).

2. I am right to assume that their hand equity (28%) is the product of the equity of each out (4%) and the number of outs (7)? If not how do you come about a hand equity of 28%?

3. Is the equity of each out (4%) for seeing both streets a rule of thumb? If it is what would it be if they were to see just one street.



Cheers
 
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Sat Aug 04, 2012, 11:22 AM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlush007 View Post
1. How come they have 7 outs for a set? I calculated 6 (2 9s, 2 Ts & 2 Js).

2. I am right to assume that their hand equity (28%) is the product of the equity of each out (4%) and the number of outs (7)? If not how do you come about a hand equity of 28%?

3. Is the equity of each out (4%) for seeing both streets a rule of thumb? If it is what would it be if they were to see just one street.

Cheers
1) It's seven outs because they have 3 outs for each of the two cards on the board that their hole cards don't match and one for the one that it does. ex: say I hold pocket 9's. I have 3 10's, 3 J's and a 9 that can improve my hand.
2) you are absolutely correct. 28% comes from 7 outs times 2% per out per street. If I'm guaranteed to see both streets, then I get 7*4%=28%.
3) It is a quick way to determine it (the exact would be to use an equity calculator like pokerstove), but the 2/4 rule..... 2% for one street and 4% for both streets per out is a quick calculation that you can do while you're at the table.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Aug 04, 2012, 02:40 PM
(#6)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
You did nothing wrong here. When you flop a monster like the high end of a straight all you can do is persuade some lucky customer to get all their chips in. You did that very well. So now go and smash something fragile and valuable into tiny pieces.
Rob.
 
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Sat Aug 04, 2012, 02:47 PM
(#7)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
Oh sorry Just read John's answer and OK the min raise on the flop could be an error. I do follow his reasoning but I think that the result would've probably been the same.
Unlucky.
Rob.
 
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Sat Aug 04, 2012, 03:13 PM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Rob!

The end result could be the same... which is why we don't want to be results oriented. The key is to try and make the best decision for every situation, which is making the opps make a play that will lose them chips on average in the long run.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Aug 04, 2012, 05:18 PM
(#9)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
John I know you're right. Trouble is that for me, when I flop the nut straight all thoughts of odds and outs and EVs tend to vanish and get replaced by 'how can I get this gut to put his chips in the middle?'
 
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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 08:30 AM
(#10)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
+1 to all of the above but don't take the pre flop squeeze out of the picture. Depending on the reads I have on these guys I may want to extract the chips pre with a raise but that is only if I feel pretty confident that they will fold.
If I have no read then as played is fine.

 
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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 01:43 PM
(#11)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
I'm not a fan of checking the flop, I think it's much better in the long run to bet... this is an action flop, but if a 4th straight card comes it will tend to kill action, so I like to make sure the action starts now vs. the 1 pair+ hands and draws. As played, I agree on check-raise shoving given the stacks and his seeming commitment to this pot with his bet sizing.


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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 07:21 PM
(#12)
RFlush007's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 130
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobinQQQ View Post
John I know you're right. Trouble is that for me, when I flop the nut straight all thoughts of odds and outs and EVs tend to vanish and get replaced by 'how can I get this gut to put his chips in the middle?'
This is exactly the same thing that happens to me. I completely forget poker theory and just want to chip up....lol.
 
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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 08:41 PM
(#13)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobinQQQ View Post
John I know you're right. Trouble is that for me, when I flop the nut straight all thoughts of odds and outs and EVs tend to vanish and get replaced by 'how can I get this gut to put his chips in the middle?'
Quote:
Originally Posted by RFlush007 View Post
This is exactly the same thing that happens to me. I completely forget poker theory and just want to chip up....lol.

That's why I said and JW and Lango concurred that it's always going to be more +EV to bet the flop instead of checking here.

When you flop big and it's a wet,or action,flop then you want to try and do exactly what the two of you are stating as your goal here---get ALL the opps chips in the middle. So whether you fully get the terminology yet or not as it pertains to theory your instincts are 1000% on point---we want their chips in the middle. All day long and twice on Sunday.

You'll be able to do this much more often than not by building equity in the pot right away. If you get them to put chips in the middle off the flop then it becomes easier to get them to put chips in on the turn and the river---most players in micro levels have a hard time letting go with ANY piece of the pot once they put money in the middle. Also they're much more inclined to want to go ahead with their draw hands off the flop with TWO streets coming than they are off the turn with only the river card to peel. If you wait for the turn for there to be action many times you'll be disappointed.

Here we get all the chips in off the flop because they have a hand that they're just never going to fold. But had they had a hand like a drawing hand for the straight or a pair or other hands where they have just a piece or a draw and not a bigger hand like 2 pair then we're going to see them check behind our check and then we either let them turn a scare card for us or a blank for themselves which will make it harder to get any chips out of them as only the river is left. This hand,in other words,essentially plays itself. The vast majority of the time that will not be the situation however.

And on some occasions you'll really,really,really regret letting them peel a free card.
 
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Mon Aug 06, 2012, 01:32 PM
(#14)
RobinQQQ's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 115
No I get the terminology it's just that there are certain situations where I think reads top everything. When I flop the nuts I'm asking myself 'is my opp likely to bet if I check to him?' If I think he is then I'll check. If I think he's likely to check behind then I'm thinking about what kind of bet will allow me to grow the pot and him to continue.
It may be that there is a draw that's scary enough to make me think about pricing him out but once I've checked and he's bet the biggest mistake I can get him to make is to commit all his chips.
Rob.
 

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