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It doesn't just happen here

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It doesn't just happen here - Sun Aug 05, 2012, 11:15 AM
(#1)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,508
I was playing on another site last night, when I was moved to another table during an MTT.
The Blinds had just gone up to 150/300 and I was seated next to the Button.
The first hand I was dealt was AQ suited in hearts, I had just over 11K in chips and was chip leader at the table by about 550 over the guy who was seated on the Button.
It was folded round to me and I bet 900 (3XBB), and the Button went All in, the blinds both folded. I folded also as I didn't relish losing nearly my entire stack on the first hand at the table, so the Button player took it down uncontested, and didn't show.
The next hand I was dealt rubbish so folded. But the player who had gone all in the previous hand went all in again, the play having folded round to him. The remaining players also folded.
I thought,"This guy is having some good luck here".
The third hand I was dealt was pocket fours, as I was only in middle position I only called when it was folded to me, and the player who had been all in the last two hands went all in again, everyone else, including me folded, so he took the third hand uncontested.

He did this for the next three hands, going all in, everyone folding and him taking the pot.
On the seventh hand, however, he went all in, as usual, and the chap in cut off position called, with his 10BB stack, holding pocket Aces. The player who had gone all in first, showed A2s and flopped trip deuces, which held to the river and knocked out that player. And then had the temerity to laugh in chat and called the player who went out a Donk.

The last hand I played in that tournament, was my eighth at that table. I was Button and was dealt KK. I had about 9K in chips just over 30BB. The villain, who was now SB had over 50BB, I was hoping that he would do the same thing again, as in my mind I thought he was just using his stack to scare everyone off and if he did get called he wouldn't lose too much as, apart from me, the largest stack against him was slightly under 10BB.

A player with 1400 chips went all in from utg+1 and the player two to his left went all in also with 2400.
This was just under a third of my remaining stack, and as I had already decided to get all my chips in against the SB, by limping and letting him bet all in against me, I decided to just flat call the 2400 hoping that the villain would stay true to form and go way over the top, even though he had two all in's and a caller.
As it happened, he did go all in and I insta called.

UTG+1 turned over A10o, the next guy turned over A10s in spades, I turned over my KhKd and the villain turned over A10o. When I saw this I nearly jumped out of my chair as they all could only beat my Kings with the final ace, unless of course they all got Broadway, two pair was, I thought very, very unlikely, and the only one I could see with half a chance was the A10s as he could possibly pick up a flush.
The flop came 2h 7c 8d, (no spade) there were no flush draws and only a possible back door straight draw, I thought this was well in the bag.
The Turn was 4s, so now , no flush and no straight possibilities, this left only the case ace.

Guess what the River card was ?

I thought that I was going to be table chip leader and also would have knocked out two players and severely crippled the villain.
As it was, I was the one sent to the Rail and the other three shared the pot between them.

I have seen similar to this on numerous occasions, and been part of a three way before losing to the other two, but this was the first time I have been in the situation where all three opponents had almost exactly the same hand, and went on to win against what was the best hand right up to the river.

If Trumpin Joe reads this, can you tell me what the odds are of this happening ? ( I know that in this particular case, it is 100% certain, as it did happen, but what are the odds ? Is it 40 - 1 , 30 -1 or like 1,000,000 - 1 ? ) Pokerstove gives me 77.863% equity preflop, A10s 11.947% and the other two A10o just over 5% . On the flop I move up to 91%+ and the others Just under 3% each. The turn moves me to 97.5% and the others to just under 1% each. But that doesn't tell me what the odds are of losing.

I'm not complaining about losing that hand, I have seen people lose and had losses myself before to know that this is just part of the game, but I would have liked to have taken that villain down a peg or two.
 
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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 11:24 AM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,824
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Bill!

The odds of losing are 100%-your hand equity%. So, preflop, you will lose 22.137% of the time. After the flop, it moves to just under 9% of the time (100-91+), the turn you'll lose 2.5% of the time.

That's really unlucky, because that's really exactly what your best case scenario is in a multi-way pot... the opps counterfeiting their outs.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 01:59 PM
(#3)
Don B. Cilly's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 394
Hey at least it makes for a good story...
Well told btw
 
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Sun Aug 05, 2012, 06:03 PM
(#4)
alanj28's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
has to be on the i joker network and im probly certain i can guess the skin lol .. ofcause the one outer came on the river were else


 
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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 02:07 PM
(#5)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by TJ Jenkinz View Post
**deleted post**

Part of me thinks that your post was made tongue in cheek. Or at least I hope so.

I'm 100% certain there are players here that could post hundreds of hands a week that would shoot the idea of Stars rewarding only players who have played the hand better all to Hell.

As for the "not about playing poker really just learn to play the software" comment...

Mods how can that be up for more than 12 hours now and NOT have been flagged as SPAM or non-productive?

Last edited by CannonLee; Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 03:23 PM..
 
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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 08:22 PM
(#6)
Cairn Destop's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,477
BronzeStar
Way I see it, if you had a 97% probability of winning, then you had a 3% chance of losing the hand on the river. As you can see, nothing is ever certain if there is even a one-card chance of losing.

As anyone who has played poker can tell you, those things can happen. It sucks, but unless the odds are 100% in your favor, randomness can work against you.

Happens in live games too. Want an example? I lost quad aces in a live game to four other players. What are the odds?

How?

Me: pocket queens - goes all-in when everyone limps.

Four players call - KQ suited, KJ suited, KT suited, K2 suited, each in a different suit.

Flop: 3 aces
Turn: 6 hearts
River: the fourth ace. only card that could kill me.

I end up with quad aces, queen kicker. The other four split my chips with quad aces and king kicker. Worse, since I only used one card in my hand, I didn't qualify for the bad beat.
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 12:16 PM
(#7)
ketchup143's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 279
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Curran View Post
been part of a three way before .
hope that cheers u up some bill lmao!
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 03:48 PM
(#8)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,508
Brilliant !!!!! I hadn't thought of that when I wrote the post.

But , YES been there done that, and YES it did cheer me up. LOL

 

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