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NL2FR doublebarrel or check?

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NL2FR doublebarrel or check? - Sun Aug 05, 2012, 01:35 PM
(#1)
UrGetinTaxed's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 189
hi,
was just about to check this flop, and decided to double barrel, was worried incase villain had AQ or AK, plus there was on turn now 2 flush draws aswell as str8 draw, i didnt wanna see river so i bet turn as a kindov bluff not sure?....had no HUD or reads seemed like a reg playing a few tables and chip stak, took a wee while to call flop wichmakes me think there thinking!

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...374_EED53F1CE0
 
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Mon Aug 06, 2012, 06:52 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hi Urgettintaxed.

You have just demonstrated the difficulty of playing semi marginal kicker hands oop without good solid info on opponents. :-)

The bottom line here in my opinion is that your lack of reads about the potential call range of the opp, as well as your lack of info about his aggression tendencies, makes any real assessment of what is "best" to do here pretty moot.

One the one hand, top pair J kicker is hardly a "terrible" hand, and in many cases it is one which can be bet for value oop a lot. There is also the presence of draws on the board, and failure to bet can lead to a free card beating you, or a card falling which stifles your ability to extract value from a winning hand. These things argue for a BET...

But...

You say AQ/AK is a possibility. The depth of money here (reasonably deep) leaves lots of room for the IP opponent to bluff/semi bluff raise, thus "testing" your J kicker in a way you may not be able to call. These things argue for a CHECK.

Since you lack the info to tilt you one way or the other, it is pretty much a coin flip in your mind as to which is the better course of action.

Mike Caro has a famous quote: "In the beginning, everything is even money".

By this he means that if you lack the information required to judge the likelihood of occurence between 2 possibilities, at least from YOUR point of view they are equally likely to be possible. For the purpose of this analysis, that means I cannot really form an opinion as to which course of action is better for you here either...

What I CAN say is this:

Regardless of which action you choose, bet or check, the importance of having a "plan" based upon what the opponent does in reaction to your choice becomes paramount.

- If you bet and he raises, then you now have info which makes it more likely he does hold AQ/AK. You should be more ready to fold AJ than you would be if you had info saying he is very loose aggro, and/or bluffy.

- If you check and he checks behind, you should be more ready to bet any turn card that does not hit a draw.

- If you bet and he flats, you should be more ready to bet any non draw card for 1 more street, and should be more ready to check/call at most on ANY draw card that falls (any h plus any J/7/9/Q/6).

This is the problem of playing hands oop which might give you kicker issues when you lack strong opponent info UGT; it will often cost you more to gain the clarity you might need to enact a solid decision.

So it is "even money" as to what is the best decision for you on this street, but as long as you know what you will do based on the opponent's reaction to your action, it won't stay even money for long.

hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Mon Aug 06, 2012 at 06:54 AM..
 
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Mon Aug 06, 2012, 12:29 PM
(#3)
UrGetinTaxed's Avatar
Since: Jan 2010
Posts: 189
thanks,
very good interesting answer, i thought i had maybe asked stupid question, but u explain why i was confued a bit as what to do, i also thought it was like 50/50 what to do, and am going threw the hand in my head again trying to work out what would happen if i took diffrent lines and difrent cards came out etc
 

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