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UTG+1 raiser, QJ in bb by LAG player, TP player calls, good spot for a squeeze play?

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UTG+1 raiser, QJ in bb by LAG player, TP player calls, good spot for a squeeze play? - Thu Aug 09, 2012, 04:28 PM
(#1)
doomasiggy's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 48
0.25c mttsng.

UTG+1 stats: 24/21 over 25 hands
MP1 stats: 10/0 over 30 hands,

no f3bet stats .


PokerStars - $0.23+$0.02|100/200 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 3,592.00
BTN: 747.00
SB: 6,170.00
Hero (BB): 3,627.00
UTG: 18,358.00
UTG+1: 3,400.00
MP: 3,247.00

SB posts SB 100.00, Hero posts BB 200.00

Pre Flop: (pot: 300.00) Hero has J:club: Q:spade:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 400.00, MP calls 400.00, Hero???
 
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Thu Aug 09, 2012, 04:35 PM
(#2)
iggyo's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 171
You're at 17bb's and on the big blind so I would fold here. I would consider calling with a larger stack, say 40bb's depending on the players in the pot. I would only consider a squeeze play with a much better hand in this spot with this amount of chips.

But what did you do?

Last edited by iggyo; Thu Aug 09, 2012 at 04:47 PM.. Reason: Didn't answer original question.
 
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Thu Aug 09, 2012, 08:08 PM
(#3)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi doomasiggy,

I'll start off saying it's good you are looking for spots like this.

Both UTG+1 & MP have about the same chips as you so around 3400 effective stack size. The pot when it comes aorund to you is 1100. A squeeze here would mean raising to 1100 minimum, and since we are out of position probably a bit more. Given thats basically half our stack the only option here would be to shove.

We definately don't want calls in this situation since QJ doesn't dominate alot of hands and can itself be dominated by most raising hands. So we need to ascertain how often we think we get folds from both opponents.

24/21 over 20 hands is pretty aggressive and on the loose side, UTG+1 obviously early position though so we might expect him to be towards the top of his range, agressive players in 25c games can often be gamblers also.
10/0 over 30 hands very passive so no surprise we see him calling, but only playing 10% of hands is a pretty tight range so this player may have enough of a hand to call an allin as well, but just not their style to be 3 betting.

1100 chips would be a nice addition to your stack. However I think in a 25c game I'm not sure it's profitable to risk our entire stack here.

Lets guess some calling ranges
88+,A9s+,KQs,AJo+,KQo is about 8% and fairly close I think to what an average LAG player in 25c game would stack off with. The MP is a little tighter but in terms of equity that would just make our chances worse. Vs this range QJo is 34%

So the pot when we shove and get called in 1 spot will be about 7,000. That times 34% is 2380 in equity so we'd loose about 1000 chips on average. When we get 2 folds we win 1100. So for a shove to be profitable we need both opps to fold 50% of the time.

I think the likelihood of a 2 folds based purely on the stats would be very close to 50%. So I think in this instance I would opt to fold since there isn't a huge edge for us here. If the raise was to 500 there would be more dead money to pickup without impacting your fold equity much. Or if we had a good read that the rasier would fold alot this could swing it.

I would look for spots where the odds are more in our favour. Especially attacking pots were no-one or atleast only 1 person had shown interest in the pot.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Aug 10, 2012, 02:42 PM
(#4)
iggyo's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 171
Wow, Andy! That's a lot of great information there. I really want to understand the detailed strategies like this to improve my game rather than just play "by feel" as I often do. I am getting better at putting opps on hands or hand ranges and that has helped immensely. I think this hand analysis section is great not only for your own hands but for looking at other people's hands like this too. Thanks to all you pros here!

Last edited by iggyo; Fri Aug 10, 2012 at 02:42 PM.. Reason: typo
 

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