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JJ after a 3 bet all in?

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JJ after a 3 bet all in? - Sat Aug 11, 2012, 12:19 PM
(#1)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604


Not much info on H1g2y3z4 hence the flat over 15 hands he was loose but a little passive pre.

Lots of hands with daredream He is tag board line nitty tag who rarely (but occasionally ) 3bets.

My read at the table is that h1g2y3z4 having made the raise will call anything and i'm guessing Dare knows (thinks ) this too.

so good odds call anyway or Even if H1 is AKAQ Dare has me so crushed that i fold every time.

Thoughts.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Aug 11, 2012, 12:25 PM
(#2)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
ok so,

Pure numbers wise went into Pokerstove,

h1 has raise % of 14%

daredream has 3 bet % of 4%


gives me 33.032% Equity just under what i need.

With H1 calling may need to tighten that range but so few hands this is the only 3 bet i have seen when he has chance to fold.

hmmmm.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Aug 11, 2012, 03:56 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
(Head Trainer)
Hi Grade,

I think this looks like a super easy fold tbh. You are almost 200 bb's deep with the 3b jammer. The villain is a borderline nit with a super tight 3b range based on the read info you have. And he is facing an UTG 8x open and flat call (presumably by someone he knows is not a loose spewer, if you have lots of data on him he has experience with you). The situation makes this guys 3b range even tighter than normal, i.e. I doubt AK is in that range ever as described. With all the read info provided, I would guess his 3b jam range is KK+, and maybe an occasional QQ. I guess there is always some % chance he's got AK or TT in a spot like this, but that % is small, likely way too small to make stacking off 200 bb's pre with JJ profitable.

I like your flat of the new (15 hand sample) guy in position with JJ, but think when this action comes back to you it's an easy fold.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
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Sat Aug 11, 2012, 04:03 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,511
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grade b View Post
ok so,

Pure numbers wise went into Pokerstove,

h1 has raise % of 14%

daredream has 3 bet % of 4%


gives me 33.032% Equity just under what i need.

With H1 calling may need to tighten that range but so few hands this is the only 3 bet i have seen when he has chance to fold.

hmmmm.

Grade b
Not sure if this 4% was his 3b% you had? Since you said he rarely 3b's and I take that to be tighter. Regardless, assuming this is his aggregate 3b% over the entire sample you have, in this situation it's actually much tighter than normal. Just like sometimes it's looser than normal (like perhaps vs. a button steal from a frequently stealer). If you throw 4% into pokerstove you get hands he is probably never 3-betting here like AQs and 99.

Also, H1's 14% is wrong to use for your equity calc, his range has to be much tighter than this. Again he may be tighter UTG opening (maybe not if he doesn't observe position) but with a 15 hand sample there is no way you can say he is calling off to this shove with his entire opening range. Even if he was a loose caller it's hard to call off too light to this action, and a 14% range includes hands like A8, K9, JT, QJo. If he's bad enough to call off this action with QJo for instance, then I would posit that his actually true opening range is significantly wider than 14% as this call off would be a massive spew.

Tighten up both ranges and you'll find your equity isn't close to a call.

Hope this helps.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
Check out my Videos

4 Time Bracelet Winner



 
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Sat Aug 11, 2012, 04:41 PM
(#5)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
ty Dave after a time away from the table very happy with my action. The question in my head was probably aroused by me having seen the outcome!!!


Grade b

And yes that was an opps, thats 4 times in over 250 hands i have seen him 3 bet!!


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by Grade b; Sat Aug 11, 2012 at 04:43 PM.. Reason: added a ps
 

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