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2nl AQo in the BB - Check raise on low flop.

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2nl AQo in the BB - Check raise on low flop. - Tue Aug 14, 2012, 11:26 AM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
So I had been playing at this table around 40 hands. My reads on the villains in this hand were as follows:

UTG... 1982 - Seemed to be pretty TAG, wasn't betting and raising a great deal pre-flop and I hadn't seen too much of him post flop but the genreal impression I had was he understood position and didn't play trash hands.

BTN... shotshirl - Table fish, this player was very loose passive pre playing around 70/10, however post flop they took a bit more of an aggressive stance. I think I had a betting tell on this player (minbet all weak/air hands and made it much bigger with strong hands) so I didn't mind playing OOP to this player. Also they liked to call down when not given a chance to bet out.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

When UTG opens and the fish calls on the button I feel I should either 3-bet or call.

1) If I 3-bet I could potentially scare the fish out of the pot which is something I'm not a fan of as it leaves me heads up against a pretty solid opening range. However if I do 3-bet and then get 4-bet by the UTG opener it makes for an easy decision as I can happily fold as I will likely be behind.

2) Calling however means I can take a flop and if I hit I can often get value from the fish and perhaps from UTG as well. However if I do hit I can not be certain my pair is good as the UTG player has a fairly tight EP opening range imo.

I decided to call as I wanted to keep the fish in the pot, however I'm not sure if this was the right play...?

The flop comes 8 high with 2 spades, being OOP I check (ready to fold) as I think it is likely that UTG will lead and the BTN will call. When the BTN folds I just couldn't resist having a stab at the pot, here's why....

I think that the UTG openers range consists of missed over cards and pairs. I feel that I can get a lot of these hands to fold, any pair that is lower than an 8 and hasn't made a set will likely fold as well as unpaired paint. Was this a good time to make this play or am I likely getting called by lots of hands I'm behind to, as well as getting shoved on by better hands?

I feel my line looks pretty strong at this point and thus will induce folds from better hands, is my thinking correct or have I misjudged the spot?

Also how often would this play have to be succesful to make this move profitable?

Thanks for any advice.

Oliver


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Tue Aug 14, 2012, 11:51 AM
(#2)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
This is your read

UTG... 1982
- Seemed to be pretty TAG, wasn't betting and raising a great deal pre-flop and I hadn't seen too much of him post flop but the general impression I had was he understood position and didn't play trash hands.

He's betting UTG, betting post flop, therefore it's a fold for me, but I'm just a nit....LOL

 
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Tue Aug 14, 2012, 03:00 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi Croyd,

Welcome back to the hand analysis forums.

I think the call preflop is fine for the reasons you stated. Don't really like 3-betting this as we will only get action from the parts of UTG's range that is crushing us, and we expect he's opening a tight range to begin with so there's not much worse in there (is he even opening AJ? How tight?). And we may lose the fish as well. I think AQ is too strong to fold here, especially given the presence of the fish, but 3-betting doesn't look very attractive to me either, so that leaves calling.

Post flop, I tend to agree with Sandtrap. I don't disagree with you that he may well fold missed overcards and any pair lower than an 8, but we have to evaluate how often he's going to have those. Hands that would make a pair lower than an 8 are probably not in his UTG open raising range. Certainly there are big ace overcards in his open raising range like AK, but he is barreling the flop into 2 opponents, one of whom is a loose fish... he should expect this guy to be calling him very wide on the flop, so while he may be c-betting AK some of the time, I don't think we can assume he's blasting all of the time with missed overs.

I would expect he is going to show up quite a bit of the time here with an overpair, and I'm not optimistic that we'll get him off of it. I think I would just check-fold in this spot. Remember what our goal was in getting involved, it didn't pan out, it's ok to give this guy some credit in a spot we expect him to be strong.

If I were going to make a play like this, I would very much want to have the ace of spades. That adds a lot of benefit to our play in that:

1) we know the villain can never have the nut flush draw
2) we have a back door flush draw which allows us, if called, to barrel any spade turn card... giving us both increased fold equity vs. overpairs, as well as increased outs (hand equity) when they don't fold to our barreling.

Dave


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Tue Aug 14, 2012, 06:32 PM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Thanks for the feedback guys.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Certainly there are big ace overcards in his open raising range like AK, but he is barreling the flop into 2 opponents, one of whom is a loose fish... he should expect this guy to be calling him very wide on the flop, so while he may be c-betting AK some of the time, I don't think we can assume he's blasting all of the time with missed overs.
This was something I didn't really take into account. If he is firing his full range then maybe this play would be a little more sucessful. Looking back I have to agree that he is probably on an overpair and it is very unlikely he will fold.

If he was perhaps playing a little wider and we had the A of spades which would make this sort of play more sucessful. How could I calculate the break even point for this sort of play. Like how much does he have to fold to make it profitable? (Hope you understand what I mean, finding it hard to explain myself)

Thanks for all the help

Oliver


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Tue Aug 14, 2012, 07:53 PM
(#5)
magiciantom's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 61
If you're gonna make a move at this pot, I actually don't think you need the A of spades. If this villain is a solid TAG and he is capable of folding overpairs, I'd check-raise and represent a set. He's probably gonna call once or twice with his overpair, but if you tripple barrel he has to fold. If we don't have the A of spades he might have it and not put us on a draw.
Or is this naive thinking at 2NL?

If you want to calculate the break-even point of a bluff, divide your bet by the pot size + your bet. If you bluff 50 cents in a 1$ pot, this has to work 0,5 of 1,5 times, or 1 in three
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 11:31 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by magiciantom View Post
If you're gonna make a move at this pot, I actually don't think you need the A of spades. If this villain is a solid TAG and he is capable of folding overpairs, I'd check-raise and represent a set. He's probably gonna call once or twice with his overpair, but if you tripple barrel he has to fold. If we don't have the A of spades he might have it and not put us on a draw.
Or is this naive thinking at 2NL?
Hi Tom,

Interesting thought. I tend to not agree here. First we don't know if he's a solid player, the very limited sample size is TAG but many players who play a TAG style are not solid... especially at 2nl where a general ABC TAG strategy is probably enough to turn a profit, but can still be filled with leaks. One of the most common leaks for TAG styles is not being able to release big overpairs to the board when they're beat.

I think it's a good point about if he has the ace of spades he might weigh our range more towards made hands than draws, but keep in mind most of his range does not include the ace of spades, and players in our position can show up with many flush draws that are not the nut flush draw as well. I think there's a tendency for players with a big overpair to put us on a draw too often on these types of boards and use that as justification to go with their hand, rather than credit us for a set. It looks so much stronger if the board is dry.

My experience with 2nl is limited obv, but as a general rule of thumb I don't think we're going to make a lot of money trying to get micro stakes players to lay down top/top or overpairs to the board.

Dave


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