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How often does a flush come?

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How often does a flush come? - Wed Aug 15, 2012, 04:25 AM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Can someone remind me how often 2 suited hole cards hit the flush with 5 cards on the board.

It seems that I keep getting called or shoved over all-in preflop by suited cards that hit the flush a lot more than I would expect.



I don't mind the call in that example above - as it is at least a suited ace//ten that has enough equity against the 77+/A9+ range I am typically shoving here, but I frequently get all in preflop versus lower suited semi/ connected cards like 67s / 8Ts or suited big/small combos like K2s / Q5s that seem to be hitting the flush far too regularly.


For instance...



So what are the odds here? I thought they were lowish..

Ed

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 04:38 AM..
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:07 AM
(#2)
will14m's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 12
re the pocket 10's

Pre flop you were 65% 35% fav, flop82% 18% Fav and turn 73% 27% fav

Your all in was ok, but you were still a bit too deep really. If you were intent of getting your chips in you would have been better off raising P.F and then shoving on the flop regardless of what came, that way you would have either picked up the blinds uncontested or had the villain have called your raise he was very unlikely to have called your shove on the flop. Either way you would still be in the game.

Confucius say “It is better to win a small pot than loose a big one”

Hope this helps
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:42 AM
(#3)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by will14m View Post
re the pocket 10's

Pre flop you were 65% 35% fav, flop82% 18% Fav and turn 73% 27% fav

Your all in was ok, but you were still a bit too deep really. If you were intent of getting your chips in you would have been better off raising P.F and then shoving on the flop regardless of what came, that way you would have either picked up the blinds uncontested or had the villain have called your raise he was very unlikely to have called your shove on the flop. Either way you would still be in the game.

Confucius say “It is better to win a small pot than loose a big one”

Hope this helps
I am not getting tricky at these micro levels from the BB with a 12BB stack - if I am playing this hand one on one after a 3x raise I don't want to reraise to say 900 (half my stack) then shove any flop with overcards - I am just shoving preflop.

Just looking for odds to hit a flush - not analysis.

Ed
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:44 AM
(#4)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Hey Ed

I think the chance of making a flush with two suited hole cards is about 3%. This is good to know, but perhaps more interesting is how your spesific hands hold up against expected calling ranges of the opponents since you didn't know what they held when you got all in.

1010 vs a random hand is a 75% favorite. However, 1010 becomes a 60% favorite vs a top 20% calling range (Axs, two broadways, any pocket pair). Whereas 88 vs a top 20 hand is a 54% favorite.

Pokerstove is great for calculating most of thes odds. For example your 88 hand was an 83% favorite vs the dominated 86s.

You were ahead in both hands when you got all in. So you have two cases of "right move, wrong result" I guess. Suited connectors, gappers and overcards allow for all kinds of horrible stuff to happen.

GL

Roland GTX
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:54 AM
(#5)
will14m's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 12
with 2 suited cards the odds of making a flush by the river are 15 - 1 (or 6.4%).
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 06:34 AM
(#6)
Roland GTX's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 1,905
Quote:
Originally Posted by will14m View Post
with 2 suited cards the odds of making a flush by the river are 15 - 1 (or 6.4%).
My mistkake Ed! Will14m is correct 6.4%.
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 08:26 AM
(#7)
0HighTimes0's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 840
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_p..._hold_%27em%29

This is basic maths version LOL > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

Who say's there no maths to poker!

Last edited by 0HighTimes0; Thu Aug 30, 2012 at 10:53 AM..
 

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