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$1 45-man SnG - folded A9o to 3-bet 28bb

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$1 45-man SnG - folded A9o to 3-bet 28bb - Wed Aug 15, 2012, 05:33 PM
(#1)
hellsgate10's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 13
We're down to the last 6, so I'm in the money at this point. Blinds are 300/600 with ante of 50. I'm on the button and villain is BB. Villain has folded his BB to all steals so far. Stats:
Me: 123/24.4/22/4
Villain: 25/20/16/2.5



I folded thinking that I don't want to risk almost half my stack with a fairly marginal hand, but I wasn't sure if I this was the right play or maybe was playing scared.
I decided to check if I made the correct decision here. I need to call 6774 into a pot of 9774, which i think means I need 69.3% equity. I put their raising percentage into Pokerstove and it shows me as having 43.2%. From this it looks like an easy fold, but I wanted to check that I'm calculating this properly. Am I? Also, it would appear that the only hands I should be calling this 3-bet with are AA, KK & QQ. Is this also correct? it seems like a very tight range to be calling with.

Last edited by hellsgate10; Wed Aug 15, 2012 at 05:36 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 15, 2012, 08:39 PM
(#2)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Hellsgate,

In terms of your odds here. The calculation needs to be vs the total size of the pot including your call. So here you would be putting in 6774 to win a pot of 16548 so you need 41% equity.

Then in PokerStove we need to match A9o vs the range we think he will 3bet us with. This will depend on how light he will think we are. Here I think he could be 3betting lots of Ax hands KQ and any pocket pairs. All would probably be profitable shove from him. Vs this range we are over 41% but the question is how much over. Given we have him covered and it looks like you have been stealing from him a few times already I would probably call here.

However this is definately a hand we want to make a plan with before we take an action. There's only 2 players left to act, SB with 6 BB's and BB with 13BBs. A9o is definately a good hand with only 2 players left to act so we don't wanna be folding directly. If we raise we need to know what we will do if the SB shoves, BB shoves or if the BB calls.

So if we decide to bet here it would normally be with the intention of calling a shove from both players I think. If we don't want to call a 3bet we are better off shoving A9o directly and minimising the number of hands the BB can call us with. 13BB is definately shallow enough to shove A9o.

If the BB was a super nit (which those stats don't suggest) we could raise and fold to a shove here. knowing he's only shoving a small percentage of the time and only with his strong hands that probably beat us.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Fri Aug 17, 2012, 07:32 PM
(#3)
hellsgate10's Avatar
Since: May 2012
Posts: 13
Thanks Ahar. I'm having a look over some other hand histories and you're explanation here is helping me decide whether or not I'd made the correct decision at the time. I'll be back if there are others I'm unsure about
 
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Fri Aug 17, 2012, 10:15 PM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi Hellsgate,

For me this is fine with 30bb to min open and as Andy said you do need a plan. Mine would be to call the shorter sb as long as the bb folds. Now with the bb having a nice 13bb shoving stack I can't call here due to my priority of securing one of the top money spots.

I do play these $1 x45 and that 3b shove could be as wide as K7s and as I have just seen at this stage In my last tournament a 7 hits the board and a marginal Ace donates chips.

People do play these spots differently. But as long as you have a plan A and hopefully a plan B dependent on the action we can all learn to make the correct decisions.
 
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Put Max Pressure On Medium Stacks! - Sun Aug 19, 2012, 12:24 PM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by hellsgate10 View Post
I folded thinking that I don't want to risk almost half my stack with a fairly marginal hand, but I wasn't sure if I this was the right play or maybe was playing scared.
In your 'heading' for this hand, you wrote 'Folded A9o to 3-bet 28bb'. This is a bit misleading; while it's true you have 28BB (behind), the effective stack only has 12BB (behind). The hand data on the villain (25 hands), gives little info on how he might play this hand, and what his holding might be.

OPTIONS:

Folding - This hand is too good to even think about folding. While losing to either blind will reduce your stack, you'll be far from crippled.

Raising - With the stack sizes of the blinds under 12BB's, you'll have to decide what action you'll take if 3bet shoved on, as well as just being called.

If you are just called, the SPR will be anywhere from just over 1 to just under 2, depending on which blind calls (or possibly both call). What is your action (or reaction) going to be on a flop that misses your hand when faced with a check (or donk bet)? As you can see, you've put yourself in a tricky spot by just raising PF.

If you are shoved on (by the BB), and are calling, then you just induced a 3bet in a situation where you would rather not have a SD.

If you are shoved on (by the BB), and are folding, then you just reduced your chances of stealing from the BTN position for the rest of the game; stealing is a big part of the end game. However, you still have a playable stack, and possibly may be able to induce a shove when you have a premium hand.

Shoving - By shoving, you're preventing the BB from putting the pressure back on you. And even though he may call, with a tighter range than he would 3bet shove a PFR, it will be less often, thus your 'out of the tourney' possibility is lowered. Shoving may also get A9-AJ to fold, if he considers there are two shorter stacks at the table (half his size); this may be wishful thinking, but possible. By Shoving PF, the pressure you are applying to a medium stack (by putting his tourney in jeopardy), is greater; especially when laddering up in this 'flat structured' payout. This is a spot where reads are essential, but overall, shoving is your best play.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 12:40 PM
(#6)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Very good analysis king_spadez1 I feel that the shove is the optimum play here.

If you were the villain in the BB how wide would your calling range be to the shove: for example would you call with pocket threes???? I ask mainly because of the amount of times a small pocket pair seems to win in these circumstances.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 01:13 PM
(#7)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi.

Interesting discussion some suggesting open shoving 30bb. I am here to learn but not yet convinced shoving that much with A9o. Losing puts us on the back foot donating nearly half our stack.

Any others with a for / against opinion in this?

Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun Aug 19, 2012 at 01:16 PM..
 
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replys - Sun Aug 19, 2012, 02:51 PM
(#8)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
If you were the villain in the BB how wide would your calling range be to the shove: for example would you call with pocket threes???? I ask mainly because of the amount of times a small pocket pair seems to win in these circumstances.

Cheers,

TC
At this point of the tourney, you have 15% (ICM) of the remaining pool (96.5%), you have only 12BB, and there is 1800 (3BB), 1/4 your stack of dead money in the pot. Even though this may be very tempting, you have to consider a few things; (a) this a very 'flat structured' payout, so laddering up has greater value; (b) there are two shorter stacks (about 1/2 you stack size). As a medium stack at this final table, you're risking more and gaining less, because of the two aforementioned facts.

Currently you are sitting closer to 3rd then 4th (ICM wise). By calling a BTN shove (putting you AI), you are risking 9% of your 15% (you are guaranteed 6%) of the pool for a chance of gaining 4.7% more of the pool. Basically you are risking twice as much as you may be winning - effectively you'll need to have 2:1 odds with 50% hand equity to make this call (0 tEV). Medium stacks have the short end of the stick when playing near the bubble, and in flat structured payouts. However, in a top-heavy structure (depending on payout %), your risking % will be about the same as your reward % - giving 33 a better price and making this a call (+ tEV).


Quote:
Originally Posted by ForrestFive View Post
Hi.
Interesting discussion some suggesting open shoving 30bb. I am here to learn but not yet convinced shoving that much with A9o. Losing puts us on the back foot donating nearly half our stack.
You are not shoving 30BB - effectively you are shoving 13BB. Putting pressure on the medium stacks (if they play correctly) is one of the most +EV plays during the end-game stage. A shove in this situation, actually reduces your chance of getting called. But if however you have a reason to PFR / fold to a shove (vs. a NIT), then that line is also +EV vs. his infrequent shoving percentage.


"May the cards be with you!"
 
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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 03:14 PM
(#9)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Thanks king_spadez1,

That really makes a lot of sense. I really have difficulty when medium or big stacked in these situations. Having lost a few times in this position when shoving I have started to err on the side of caution and it has really ended up costing me places.

Funnily enough I seem to be much more effective when short stacked but then there is less fear factor when you push and you are sixth out of sixth anyway.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 12:06 AM
(#10)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,284
The only thing I thiink about when I shove is...do I have the best hand. If I don't think that's the case, then i fold.

 
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End Game - Mon Aug 20, 2012, 05:51 PM
(#11)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Thanks king_spadez1,

That really makes a lot of sense. I really have difficulty when medium or big stacked in these situations. Having lost a few times in this position when shoving I have started to err on the side of caution and it has really ended up costing me places.

Funnily enough I seem to be much more effective when short stacked but then there is less fear factor when you push and you are sixth out of sixth anyway.

Cheers,

TC
It's a misconception to always 'play for the win' at the final table of an MTT. The more likely players are going to 'bust', the more +EV it is to fold. Medium stacks risking their tourney with 'marginal' hands becomes a mistake, even slightly ahead. Medium stacks facing a 'flat structured' payout, with short stacks at the table, are giving up too much $EV in 'marginal' situations. It's very important to understand ICM; things are not always what they seem. Dynamics, chip stacks, and payout structure will determine the correct way to play the final table. Here's a link to a 'free' ICM calc: http://icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx

I'll reference a couple of books, which may help you get a better grasp on late-stage play. The first is 'Winning Poker Tournaments One Hand At A Time - Vol. 2'; page 276 (hand 28), Jon 'Apestyles' Van Fleet gives his take on final table play (in general). As a side note, the tourney he was playing had a 'flat structure' payout. The second book 'Kill Everyone" explains the concept of the 'Bubble Factor'. Basically, the closer you are to the bubble (or a big pay jump), the higher your risk vs. reward. But on the flip side of the coin, there are players that will take advance of tight bubble play. Refer to chapter 6 'Prize Pools And Equities', for references on 'Bubble Factor'. Beware; there is a lot of math, as well as charts. Understanding what 'Bubble Factor' is, and how it affects your play will help your end game. Medium stacks always have the highest 'bubble factor'; that's why they have to pick their spots more carefully when trying to chip-up during the end game.


"May the cards be with you!"
 

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