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Confused - Thu Aug 16, 2012, 09:05 AM
(#1)
will14m's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 12
Hi

In the lesson NLHE Cash Game Strategy - Avoiding big mistakes

Page 2 just before the comments start it states “KJo has 33% equity against a Top 7% range of hands. As soon as the opponent raises more often than 7% your call will be +EV.”

The 33% is correct but KJo does’nt get +EV until around 35% according to poker stove or I am I totally misunderstanding here?

Thanks
 
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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 01:26 PM
(#2)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Quote:
Originally Posted by will14m View Post
Hi

In the lesson NLHE Cash Game Strategy - Avoiding big mistakes

Page 2 just before the comments start it states “KJo has 33% equity against a Top 7% range of hands. As soon as the opponent raises more often than 7% your call will be +EV.”

The 33% is correct but KJo does’nt get +EV until around 35% according to poker stove or I am I totally misunderstanding here?

Thanks
Hi Will,

In the example hand we raise in the CO with KJo and the BTN shoves for $21, you already have $6 invested and have to call $15 more to win a pot of $30 thus you are getting 2-1 odds for your call.

To work out the required equity you need to make this call break even, you first work out your odds as a decimal (in this case it is very easy as 2 divided by 1 is 2) and then add 1 to the decimal for your call. Divide 100 by your answer and you have the amount of equity you need for the call to be break even. In the example 100/3 gives 33.3% equity for the call to be break even. If the BTN is shoving a 7% range then with KJo you have spot on equity for a break even call, however if they are shoving wider then 7% then you have more equity than is required thus the call is +EV.

I'm not great at explaining this sort of stuff, so if you don't fully understand what I mean then please post more questions. I'll do my best to answer them, or I'll find someone who can answer it better.

Best of luck

Oliver


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Sun Aug 19, 2012, 01:57 PM
(#3)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
A few caveats:

First: you need a lot of hands against an opponent to verify a 7% pfr.

Second: If there are people left to act after you you stand the chance of not being heads-up and are likely to have reduced equity in that situation.

Third: In a cash game there is absolutely no reason for a deep stacked player to take a play like this without a significant overlay as you are likely to find a better situation later if you pass on this one. At 33% you are a 2:1 dog so I probably want the pot to lay at least 5:2 or 3:1 so I have a decent overlay. The better my edge is against the table the bigger overlay I want.

Lastly: The 33% equity is for seeing ALL FIVE board cards, so if your not all-in pre you can't use pot equity, but you may have the implied odds to continue.
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 05:05 PM
(#4)
will14m's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
Hi Will,

In the example hand we raise in the CO with KJo and the BTN shoves for $21, you already have $6 invested and have to call $15 more to win a pot of $30 thus you are getting 2-1 odds for your call.

To work out the required equity you need to make this call break even, you first work out your odds as a decimal (in this case it is very easy as 2 divided by 1 is 2) and then add 1 to the decimal for your call. Divide 100 by your answer and you have the amount of equity you need for the call to be break even. In the example 100/3 gives 33.3% equity for the call to be break even. If the BTN is shoving a 7% range then with KJo you have spot on equity for a break even call, however if they are shoving wider then 7% then you have more equity than is required thus the call is +EV.

I'm not great at explaining this sort of stuff, so if you don't fully understand what I mean then please post more questions. I'll do my best to answer them, or I'll find someone who can answer it better.

Best of luck

Oliver
Thanks Oliver. I think I get it now, but how do you work this out on the fly for any given hole cards?

Surely you would need to know the break even equity for every card combination you play, against every PFR range, from every position for the villain. And that assumes as Trumpin joe points out, that you have enough hands on a player to get a reliable PFR range, and then if their are more players to act you have to take them into account also and you've got to do all this before the clock runs out.

And what about in live games?

So many questions so little time
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 05:11 PM
(#5)
will14m's Avatar
Since: Aug 2012
Posts: 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
A few caveats:

so I have a decent overlay. The better my edge is against the table the bigger overlay I want.
Hi Joe.

Please explain further, I don't know what you mean by "The better my edge is against the table the bigger overlay I want."

What is overlay?

Will
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 05:29 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Will!

Overlay is the amount between what my hand is worth and how much I have to put into the pot (when my hand is worth more).

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by JWK24; Mon Aug 20, 2012 at 06:45 PM..
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 06:53 PM
(#7)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Quote:
Originally Posted by will14m View Post
Thanks Oliver. I think I get it now, but how do you work this out on the fly for any given hole cards?

Surely you would need to know the break even equity for every card combination you play, against every PFR range, from every position for the villain. And that assumes as Trumpin joe points out, that you have enough hands on a player to get a reliable PFR range, and then if their are more players to act you have to take them into account also and you've got to do all this before the clock runs out.

And what about in live games?

So many questions so little time
No problem Will.

Calculating these sort of things on the fly during play is not something I do. I do keep track of what pot odds I'm getting when making calls, especially when on draws as it is important to know whether you have the correct odds to call. As for exact equity calculation that is something I use when analysing sessions.

If I have made a call or fold in spot that was pretty tight I go back and review the hand, I try range them on each street and pull pokerstove up to see my equity against that range. I then calculate what equity I needed to make the call and can then determine if my call was correct.

I normally go through a hand at least twice. First I try not to be results orientated I think back to my mindset during the hand and what I thought my opponents range was; I input this into pokerstove and do the calculations.

I then go back, especially if I got to showdown and saw his holding, I think if his holding made sense for the action he took also what other holdings that I didn't consider perhaps make sense too; or are they any that I included in his range that didn't make sense. I basically take as much time as I can to think through his range, the practice helps. I then do the same as before and do the calculations.

After a while you will get used to seeing what equity a certain holding has against certain ranges, as many similar ranges come up/ You may not be able to do exact calculations while playing but you will get much better at estimating it.

One video I would thoroughly recommend regarding estimating equity when in a hand is The Langoliers 'REM' (Range, Equity, Maximization) video. You can find it here.

A final point to remember when reviewing your hands is to go over both winning and losing hands. Sometimes we will get lucky and win a big pot and not even realise how lucky we got but instead congratulate ourselvs for 'good play'.

Best of luck.

Oliver


Follow me on: Twitter
 
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Mon Aug 20, 2012, 10:28 PM
(#8)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey, what do you guys think of this chart? I remember seeing it when I was just starting out, and remember trying to stick with it. But it's got some kind of surprising values - like it says KTs has a +EV from utg, but A8o is still -EV even from as late as the button ... and I remember it not going so great for me when I tried to stick to the guidelines ... and I thought maybe it was too much of an oversimplification or something, like maybe yeah it doesn't really work to generalize against an 'average player', or maybe it takes a certain level of skill to be able to play KTs profitably from utg, or maybe people open shove a lot more from the button with hands like Ax when they're desperate and get called more often or what have you, etc?

I hope it's okay for me to post this because it's an interesting chart, but if it's not I understand

**deleted link to competing site JWK24**



Something that was interesting to see for me was how much more +EV it said those middle pocket pairs were for utg ... more than even AJo, eh? I'm kind of struggling to show a decent profit from utg in 6max, and so I tried tightening up my range (it's not the hands listed on this chart), but it doesn't seem to have helped so now I'm wondering if maybe I'm too tight.

My leakbusters says I'm not cbetting enough from utg though, so maybe it's something like that and not my range of starting hands, who knows, eh?


Anyways ... I thought I'd share the chart because William, I guess most people recommend not playing KJ in early position no matter who else is at the table (although I'm sure there are exceptions)? And then this chart, which seems to be a rough guideline for what's EV against a table of average players, also seems to say that too? Like maybe those two things combined are enough to at least rule out playing KJ from early position?

Last edited by TrustySam; Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 12:32 AM.. Reason: ... some of my observations were off :D; Edit #1: JWK@10:30pm - delete link to competing site
 
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Tue Aug 21, 2012, 12:22 AM
(#9)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey JWK, is it okay if I do it this way?

If it's still no good I understand

copyrighted material deleted

Sorry Sam, if you could find something similiar on a site that we could allow a link to, I am sure many of us would be interested.

Last edited by bearxing; Tue Aug 21, 2012 at 07:48 AM.. Reason: delete copyrighted material
 

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