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making the right move..

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making the right move.. - Sat Nov 16, 2002, 10:07 PM
(#1)
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i have a question that i would like to ask everyone, it is something that i have been thinking about for some time, and would like a few different opinions. lets say you are in a tournament, and are on the bubble. wether this is a money tourny, the big one here at pso, or whatever, in order to make money, get points, etc..... you have to survive 1 or 2 more spots. you are medium stacked and someone raises enough to put you all in, and you have aces. do you go for the ladder climb move and just muck, or do you play it knowing that you have the best of it going into the hand? i personally would move in, knowing i have the better hand, but in past experience, in crucial situations, it has caused me to lose by getting outdrawn, so i wonder what the correct move is. maybe i am just looking for confirmation from someone that it is the right play to make by going all in. please, all opinions are welcome. in my head, i say if you cant play when you know you have the nuts, then you shouldnt play at all, whether it is the first hand of tournament or if you are on the bubble. but lately i am second guessing myself. any advice is much appreciatted, thank you,

jmuzzey lsogc
 
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Sat Nov 16, 2002, 10:19 PM
(#2)
Deleted user
for spon. pts or a supersatellite, my main objective should be clear and that is to finish good enough...in a regular live tourney, i will never fold AA to get a ladder move.
 
Old
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Sat Nov 16, 2002, 10:19 PM
(#3)
Deleted user
All in no matter what.

As you well know Jay (since you have won so much here at PSO), the money is in the first 3 places anyway.


Quote:
in crucial situations, it has caused me to lose by getting outdrawn, so i wonder what the correct move is. maybe i am just looking for confirmation from someone that it is the right play to make by going all in. please, all opinions are welcome. in my head, i say if you cant play when you know you have the nuts, then you shouldnt play at all, whether it is the first hand of tournament or if you are on the bubble. but lately i am second guessing myself.
I know the feeling. You think that no matter what you do, someone will suck on on you. We can't let that affect our game. <Easier said than done>

Randy
 
Old
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Sat Nov 16, 2002, 10:24 PM
(#4)
Deleted user
Jay,

IMHO you have answered your own question. The only situation I would be the slightest bit hesitant to put it all in preflop against 1 opponent with AA is the unlikely scenario of death to the next one out of the tourney. And lets face it, under that scenario, he had better have AA to be putting it in in the first place

Beats do happen. If you are only interested in a ladder move, are you more likely to do it with twice as many chips? An arguement could be had against QQ or even KK. There is no reason to ever hesitate to move chips with AA preflop.

Bill
 
Old
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Sat Nov 16, 2002, 11:15 PM
(#5)
Deleted user
i used AA as an example, but it has happened with other hands. i was in a tourny the other day, and if 3 more poeple bust out, i take over first place in the silver league. anyway, i am in the big blind, and i have 3/4 suited, blinds are 200/400. under the gun makes it 800, i have 4600 left, i am short stacked at the table.after the utg raises, 6 poeple limp, so i call the bet because of pot odds. there is 4k in the pot and the flop comes 3/4/J rainbow. well i check because i am scared, and i want to see the action. utg bets out 1200. i do not put him on JJJ, at best he lsowplayed AA, but i put him on AJ. everyone folds, and it is back to me. now he has roughly 15k, and i know if he has overpair or any piece of the flop, that he is going to call my all in raise. but at the same time, i can not just call his bet, i think that would be a terrible play. since i know i have the better hand right now, i decide to raise all in. he calls and he does have AJ, and rivers an ace to beat me. he made the correct move, but i think i did also. this is where my dilema started, because if i would have just posted and folded, i would have taken first in the silver league, but in my head, i cant lay down a winner just to improve a couple of spots. so now i am always second guessing myself, i guess i just need to know that what i did was right, and i lost and that is poker. thanks,

jmuzzey
 
Old
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Sat Nov 16, 2002, 11:27 PM
(#6)
Deleted user
Jay,

I ladder move as much as anyone, but I'll never fold AA or KK regardless of the situation. I wouldn't fold it if I was possibly going to finish 11th in the WSOP and miss the final table.

Keep playing the good cards. That's all you can do, you lose, ya lose, so be it.

Aaron
 
Old
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Sat Nov 16, 2002, 11:27 PM
(#7)
Deleted user
the only time i ever fold a "premium hand" is when i am 2nd or 3rd in stack size and the chip leader is the raiser even then i wont fold AA and rarely KK
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 12:03 AM
(#8)
Deleted user
I think the only time I would even consider folding AA would be in a super satellite, late, short stack all in with callers and someone that had me covered raised all in...

But this brings up one of what I consider a drawback of our ranking system. To even consider folding AA to move up in rankings is so opposite of what you would do in a real tournament, I think it is a bit counter-productive at times.

Gojacketz
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 12:28 AM
(#9)
Deleted user
Jay, your question and the responses were good. I would never think of folding AA except...maybe...if ... 4 or more players were going to be in there with me. Pocket aces against many players, I think, is a losing situation. In this case if it meant losing a money placement in a real tourney, I might fold (sure would be hard to do). The real problem is how many times do you actually get those good hands when you need them. If you pass the good hands by, will you get another :?:

Kahlua
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 12:41 AM
(#10)
Deleted user
Gotta add my input here....hope it helps J.

Anytype of ladder mover for leagues.....I say screw it. Play the way you would to win.......period.

On the other hand......on the bubble........(for money in a live event or to make the next round in one of the qualifiers) you have to seriously think of folding to an all in raise. Regardless of the hand you have AA or 34 sooted.....its going to come down to what the next 5 cards are......and thats a crap shoot no matter how you look at it. The odds people can sit here and say that AA is the fav....but by how much.....when it comes to headsup with 5 to come.....its basically a coin flip. 5 more cards......thats not a lock by any means. ( too many think AA is a lock and should win......Reality check)

So, if your trying to make the next round or make the money.....I want to see the flop first before I sacrifice all of my chips......specially if what you got can get you there. Any big stack is going to put you all in when near the bubble.....becuase they know its a coin flip regardless of what you have.....AA to 34s......AA dominates......but 34s has great potential if I am chip leader.

You got to ask yourself......is it worth a coin flip to not see the money/next round. Thats the question that needs to be answered.

Again......if I am gunning for 1st.....all in no brainer. otherwise......well i offered some strong arguments to fold.....IMO.

Ru
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 03:29 AM
(#11)
Deleted user
There are different answers to this question all of which *could* be correct.

In order to answer the question you have to explain fully the situation. For example, I would muck aces were I to be one spot, or even two or three spots in certain situations, away from a super satellite seat.

I might also muck aces if I were one spot away from a final table that was going to be televised. (not because of my ego but for advertising purposes).

Everyone has a different reason for wanting to move up the ladder in poker. In this school we play for sponsorship points and qualifications. Were I to be playing in the school events I would consider my position in relation to these factors first when deciding whether to go all in in the position you mention.

Of course the short answer will allways be "never fold the aces" but stop and think about all the elements before you go all in ...... ALL OF THE TIME.

The post above that said something like "I would never fold Aces or Kings" is not a good answer I am sorry to say. Those of us that CAN lay down kings in the right situation will go a lot further in tournament poker. However, I would not like to see you all go off now and start mucking kings everytime someone moves you all in with them.

The lesson here............... Consider all factors before putting all your chips in the pot, especially when "calling"

Mark
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 08:39 AM
(#12)
Deleted user
In a very good poker book that I have, there is an entire chapter devoted to this subject. It states how SILLY this debate is, for the chances of anyone ever being in a situation where they are considering folding AA is so slim! BUT,,,I agree with Mark, AND the author of the book, when they say NEVER SAY NEVER!!! As I mentioned, the situation comes up very seldom, but it DOES come up! If you are in 5th at the final table,,,3 are "all in" with NO chance of a tie,,,are you going to risk going out 5th with your AA,,,,when you can be guaranteed at least 3rd if you fold? Something I was told a LONG time ago, concerning "Hold Em", was, "It doesn't matter WHAT is in your pocket,,,it takes 5 cards to make a hand!"
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 11:39 AM
(#13)
Deleted user
When I was in the super sat where I won the $3K seat at Lucky Chances, we were down to 8 players with 7 seats to be awarded. There were 2 very short stacks at the table with not enough to post a blind.

I would have mucked AA until the blinds had a chance to run through those short stacks.

Is that so wrong?
 
Old
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Re: making the right move.. - Sun Nov 17, 2002, 02:15 PM
(#14)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmuzzey
in order to make money, get points, etc..... you have to survive 1 or 2 more spots. you are medium stacked and someone raises enough to put you all in, and you have aces.
There are freak circumstances ...

If moving into the money and there are several desperately short stacks around, and the money you might make by moving up 4 or 5 spots is 'life-changing', then you could fold. Similarly, if the fold pretty much guarantees a 'qualification' of some sort ...

Otherwise - all-in.

cheers

Glenn
 
Old
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Re: making the right move.. - Sun Nov 17, 2002, 03:41 PM
(#15)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by jmuzzey
i have a question that i would like to ask everyone, it is something that i have been thinking about for some time, and would like a few different opinions. lets say you are in a tournament, and are on the bubble. wether this is a money tourny, the big one here at pso, or whatever, in order to make money, get points, etc..... you have to survive 1 or 2 more spots. you are medium stacked and someone raises enough to put you all in, and you have aces. do you go for the ladder climb move and just muck, or do you play it knowing that you have the best of it going into the hand?
The money is in the top 3 Jay, not on the bubble. That's your goal. Folding aces on the bubble can never be right in a normal tournament, unless maybe you have a really, really short stack with no chance of getting to the top 3 if you win the hand, say 1 chip and the next shortest has 100 chips or something silly like that.

Basically, if you never folded aces preflop during your lifetime, it is very unlikely you will be making a mistake. Situations where it would be correct to do so are very, very rare. It is all a question of EV, or tourney EV.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MARK
There are different answers to this question all of which *could* be correct.

In order to answer the question you have to explain fully the situation. For example, I would muck aces were I to be one spot, or even two or three spots in certain situations, away from a super satellite seat.
Yep. Because the tourney EV would make this one of those possible rare exceptions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MARK
I might also muck aces if I were one spot away from a final table that was going to be televised. (not because of my ego but for advertising purposes).
Another good exception. Where personal EV considerations, when advertising revenue were added to the equation, could make it profitable to fold AA. Though, the extra advertising revenue from winning the tournament rather than just making the final would also need to be factored in and compared.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MARK
Everyone has a different reason for wanting to move up the ladder in poker. In this school we play for sponsorship points and qualifications. Were I to be playing in the school events I would consider my position in relation to these factors first when deciding whether to go all in in the position you mention.
Do you think this may be a good reason why the league rankings point scoring method needs to be re-thought. Seeming as it is not congruent with encouraging optimum tournament strategy and hence the stated school goals of producing real tourney winners?

Quote:
Originally Posted by MARK
Those of us that CAN lay down kings in the right situation will go a lot further in tournament poker. However, I would not like to see you all go off now and start mucking kings everytime someone moves you all in with them.
Not sure I agree here. Those that can fold kings preflop will be slapped silly by the better players. There are some hands that you just have to be prepared to live or die by. Kings preflop is one of them. Generally. There may be exceptions, but even then....For example, against really predictable rock like players, but you better be very, very sure tehy can't have AK, QQ, or their once in a lifetime bluff. Maybe they are finally making a stand because you have been raising so much etc.

Basically, if good players know you can lay down KK preflop. Just what do you think they will do to you whenever you play them. 1 world class player said something along the lines that if a player ever folded KK preflop against him, whether correct or not, then it would not bother him 1 bit, as he knows that with a few adjustments he will simply destroy that player from then on.

Look at players like helmuth, who makes a big deal from making a big laydown like KK preflop, for ego purposes. Just how many times do you think his opponents re-raise him with nothing? For every 1 time he folds KK and is right, there are 20 times where somebody puts a move on him.

At the last world series main event, when he was at the table with Varkyoni or whatever, about 20 consecutive times, whenever helmuth raised preflop, somebody at the table came over the top of him every single time. Because they know he makes big laydowns. He gets pushed about. He eventually made a stand with AK and busted to the QTs that probably wouldn't have re-raised in the first place if he wasn't so inclined to make these laydowns.

That is what happens when you are capable of folding KK preflop. You get slapped silly and they apply pressure. If you do ever fold KK, then at least do so facedown and never boast about it. Your fold may work out in that instance, but it will cost you overall.
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 03:49 PM
(#16)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indy_Bob
If you are in 5th at the final table,,,3 are "all in" with NO chance of a tie,,,are you going to risk going out 5th with your AA,,,,when you can be guaranteed at least 3rd if you fold?
Well it depends. Probably mainly on the exact stack situations and exact payouts, and hence the tourney EV calculation. Though other stuff will also come into the EV equation like structure, quality of opponents and possible deals when down to 3 players. It isn't automaticaly a fold, and it isn't automatically a call. It could be either, though probably a call in most situations. Usually because winning that pot will make you a huge favourite to win the whole thing and take 1st place money. So calling will probably be the most profitable thing in most scenarios in the long run. Though maybe not. Short answer is that the tourney EV calculations prove which action is correct.
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 05:47 PM
(#17)
Deleted user
"It Depends!!" EXACTLY! As with EVERY other poker question, the answer is the same! You can "pick apart" and "analyze" all you want. Bottom line is: There ARE some situations where you would be a fool NOT to fold AA. I will agree that there are very FEW times in which one would do it, but there ARE times! Personally, I HATE going "all in" pre-flop with anything. Even holding AA, there is still the chance of getting out-flopped and going out! Lately, I have had better luck with my big PP's, by making a standard raise, and seeing the flop BEFORE I decide to commit myself to "all or nothing. In every book and article I have read on "tournament poker", SURVIVAL is the key word. And every time you put yourself "all in", you are risking this "survival", no matter WHAT you have in your pocket!
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 07:55 PM
(#18)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indy_Bob
"It Depends!!" EXACTLY! As with EVERY other poker question, the answer is the same! You can "pick apart" and "analyze" all you want. Bottom line is: There ARE some situations where you would be a fool NOT to fold AA. I will agree that there are very FEW times in which one would do it, but there ARE times!
Mostly concerned with super satellite play. I.E. Totally flat payout. A person would be hard pushed to ever face a situation in a normal tournament where folding with AA preflop would be correct.

'It depends' only applies when the problem posed does not have enough information to give the answer. With the full information given, it does not depend. There is always a correct action in that case.

Quote:
Lately, I have had better luck with my big PP's, by making a standard raise, and seeing the flop BEFORE I decide to commit myself to "all or nothing.
Well, yes. But that is a function of the depth of money more than anything. I mean, how else can anyone play big pocket pairs other than making a standard raise and seeing what happens?

Quote:
In every book and article I have read on "tournament poker", SURVIVAL is the key word. And every time you put yourself "all in", you are risking this "survival", no matter WHAT you have in your pocket!
1. Examine the motives of the people giving this 'key' advice, and see who benefits and in what way.

2. People that read this advice, and therefore think survival is key in tournaments, are likely to misunderstand and hence misapply that concept in tournament play. Which is connected to the advisors motive. Give just enough rope to let people hang themselves.

Sure, the survival concept can affect how you play in tournaments as opposed to the same situation in cash games. Just not in the way most people, that read this purposely vague advice, interpret it. It would be much better to ignore the advice completely rather than over value its importance and/or misapply it at the tables.
 
Old
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Sun Nov 17, 2002, 10:27 PM
(#19)
Deleted user
LOL!!! Noodles!!! I never meant to get into an "analytical" battle here! I realize that you need all information before giving a clear cut answer to a question about anything! I was simply trying to state MY belief that there ARE times when it would be correct to fold AA. I KNOW that these situations come up rarely, and I KNOW that it would depend upon MANY different factors, which I do not need explained to me here!
And there are MANY different ways one could play big pocket pairs, besides making a standard raise and seeing what happens. Maybe not the best thing to do with them, but there are other things!
And, I believe I am intelligent enough to "understand" what I am reading, when it comes to tournament poker, and just about anything else. And I do not believe that anybody who writes a book is out to make me "hang myself".
That all being said, I stick to my original answer of, "yes, I do believe that there are, although very few in number, times when one should fold AA preflop."
 
Old
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Mon Nov 18, 2002, 11:09 AM
(#20)
Deleted user
Quote:
Originally Posted by Indy_Bob
LOL!!! Noodles!!! I never meant to get into an "analytical" battle here! I realize that you need all information before giving a clear cut answer to a question about anything! I was simply trying to state MY belief that there ARE times when it would be correct to fold AA. I KNOW that these situations come up rarely, and I KNOW that it would depend upon MANY different factors, which I do not need explained to me here!
Wasn't necessarilly explaining them to you. More to beginners that may be reading these posts. What I say often isn't aimed at any 1 person. It isn't personal.

Quote:
And, I believe I am intelligent enough to "understand" what I am reading, when it comes to tournament poker, and just about anything else. And I do not believe that anybody who writes a book is out to make me "hang myself".
Then why do these people give such vague advice with regard survival? Why do they give people just enough knowledge to hang themselves if that is not their intention?

The things you have said in this thread with regards survival in tournaments gives me a strong indication that you, personally, do misunderstand the survival concept and how it affects tournament play. Away from the big money, it has very little affect on how you should play. Sklansky's tournament book, as far as I am aware, is the only one that has come close to explaining it enough to get people on the right track regarding the concept.

You don;t want to get into it, so fine, I will leave it there. Maybe you do understand it, but others do not. They, and you, can believe what they like about the survival concept. I'm past the point of caring to help others learn.
 

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