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question about rule of 2 and 4

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question about rule of 2 and 4 - Sat Aug 25, 2012, 05:37 AM
(#1)
nl.dopey's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 4
You hold As-Ks , your opponent has 2d-2c. The flop is 10d-10h-3c According the the rule of two and four your winning chances are: a)24%, b)28%, c)18%

I calculated an answer not given, namely 3 outs for the K + 3 outs for the A + 3 outs for the 3. Total 9 outs times 4 is 36%. Could someone enlighten me? ( i didn't calculate the J and Q in my reasoning as they both need to fall for the straight ). Pokerstove by the way gives around 40%.

thanks in advance
 
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Correct answer - Sat Aug 25, 2012, 06:18 AM
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bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
36 is the correct answer.

Doug


3 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Aug 25, 2012, 06:21 AM
(#3)
Da Sens Fan's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,118
Quote:
Originally Posted by nl.dopey View Post
You hold As-Ks , your opponent has 2d-2c. The flop is 10d-10h-3c According the the rule of two and four your winning chances are: a)24%, b)28%, c)18%

I calculated an answer not given, namely 3 outs for the K + 3 outs for the A + 3 outs for the 3. Total 9 outs times 4 is 36%. Could someone enlighten me? ( i didn't calculate the J and Q in my reasoning as they both need to fall for the straight ). Pokerstove by the way gives around 40%.

thanks in advance
You're right that it's higher,
40.20% for the aks
58.89% for the 2s

Don't forget to calculate the percent effected by a potential split - runner runner 3 or T-3


You might be a king or a little street sweeper, but sooner or later you'll dance with the reaper.

Last edited by Da Sens Fan; Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 06:25 AM..
 
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Sat Aug 25, 2012, 12:28 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
With 9 outs on the flop, it is 36% (18% per street). The reason that pokerstove is at 40% is that if the turn is a blank, then we can also pair that turn card on the river to make two pair.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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don't forget about the odds of a two falling - Wed Sep 05, 2012, 03:32 AM
(#5)
delgato2069's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4
BronzeStar
with nine outs you have a 36%chance of making a hand on the turn or the river. But don't forget there is an 8% chance of a two falling on one of those streets to reduce your odds to 28% overall to win.
 
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40% equity - Wed Sep 05, 2012, 05:23 AM
(#6)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
ifyou have AsKs and your opponent has 2c2d and the flop comes TdTh3c you have 40% equity. Here is how you get it.

You have three outs A, K, and 3, each having three cards remaining. This gives you about 36% equity. However your opponent has one street (since you use either the turn or the river to get your out) to hit one of the two remaining twos. This reduces our equity to 32%.

There are also 11 two card combos on the turn and river that will give us the winning hand. Each of these give us less than 1% equity but in total they are enough to bring our hand equity up to 40%.

There are nine possible pairs from 44 to QQ. TT gives the board quads and we have the best kicker. The rest give the board the best two pair and again we out kick the opponent.

The final two combos are QJ on the turn and river or the reverse JQ. Each of these gives us a straight. Totaling all the possible ways for us to win makes us winners about 40% of the time.

Doug


3 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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thanks - Thu Sep 06, 2012, 08:01 AM
(#7)
nl.dopey's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 4
thanks for your input all, it was a learning experience. Doug, your elaborate last reply was very clear.TY
 
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Thu Sep 06, 2012, 12:02 PM
(#8)
Garrns's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 44
As a sidenote, the question, including the answers is taken from the rule of Two and Four Section of the Basics course.

With everyone agreeing on 36% shouldn't that be a selectable answer .
 

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