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2nl 99 OTB. Did I misjudge the situation?

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2nl 99 OTB. Did I misjudge the situation? - Wed Aug 29, 2012, 03:25 PM
(#1)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
This hand has a bit of a back story so apologies for the long post.

This table was one of the juciest I've ever been at since playing cash regularly, I'd been following one of the players since the beggining of the session and as he hopped from table to table I noticed 3 other players with him everytime.

By the time I got on this table I figured out they were freinds. After some chatting with them they told me they were all freinds, however they definately wern't helping each other out as they were often involved in pots together.

The 4 players who are freinds are the 4 imediately to my left. They were all very loose and mainly passive players and they got all in very light (especially against each other). I hadn't seen any of them get all in pre-flop but this was largely due to the fact that 3-bets were often min 3bets and they was pretty much never a 4-bet.

Just as I was waiting to rejoin the table I watched a hand were Bunz1 lost with a set to a straight, to one of his freinds (unfortunately I can't get the HH as I was sat out). Then straight after the hand mentioned the following hands happened back to back.

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Here are the 4 players stats:

edbunmand - 61/21/8.3 AF 0.9
fullbook - 41/21/11.1 AF 3
Panda - 77/9/8.7 AF 0.8
Bunz1 - 68/43/15.4 AF 1.8

Then the very next hand I got dealt 99 and Bunz1 raises. Now I wouldn't normally 3-bet this on the button in this situation as I want the other 3 loose players to stay in the pot. However I felt that Bunz1 was tilting he'd just lost 2 big pots in quick sucession to his freinds, now I don't like losing but losing to my mates is the worst, so I figured he could definately be tilting.

I decided that if I 3-bet I could get him to shove many worse hands due to him tilting, I thought that the players behind might call my 3bet but I decided that if he did ship it in they would be forced to fold. I decided to implement my plan and he shipped and I got it in against him HU.

Here is the rest of the hand...

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

I wouldn't normally post the result in a hand analyisis post but I feel that I could be, being results orientated so I thought I would put it in.

So here come my qualms...
1) Did I completely misjudge the situation or was I just unlucky that I ran into a part of his range that was smashing me?

2) Even if he is tilting and shoving light; do I win enough of the time to make it more profitable than flatting and playing in postion in what would likely be a multiway pot?

3) Given the type of player type he is, is my assumption correct that if he is tilting I can get him to shove worse?

4) One thing that didn't cross my mind at the time was how deep I was. I think given the depth of money this play will be less profitable, would it be more profitable if I was only 100BB deep?

5) Should I have just tried to set mine and play straight forward given that I am playing 2nl, or should I be looking for spots like these to take advantage of?

Thanks in advance for any advice.

Oliver

P.s I had a great time playing with them, I really had fun. I got talking to them about poker and directed them here; so if any of you guys do read this please don't take any offence to how I describe your play we all start somewhere


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Last edited by Croyd93; Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 03:28 PM..
 
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Wed Aug 29, 2012, 06:18 PM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey Oliver

It seems like this is a spot where you are simply going to go broke. 99 in this spot is a very strong hand. Our villain has shown that he does some aggressive things, and once everyone calls the three-bet behind there is a ton of dead money in the pot. I don't fault your play at all.

What I would look for in the future is the difference between maniacal players and loose passives. I think in this spot you might have misjudge the player, not the situation. If it turns out he would always tilt by calling more, not going all-in with a wider range, then 99 doesn't do any better versus his all-in than it normally would. But if he does get wild preflop, as many inexperienced players are apt to do, the value of 99 increases tremendously.

If you look in PokerStove, 99, versus a range of TT+ AQ, has 37% equity. So it is not as if our hand does terrible in this spot when we misjudge it. Sure it doesn't do great, but its not the same mistake as calling a shove on the river when you are never good. So don't worry if you made the wrong adjustment this time. To be clear, once all those calls are in I would never fold, the decision is whether to three-bet/call in the first place.

Glad to see though that you went with your read and were not reticent to go with it

Gareth
 
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Wed Aug 29, 2012, 07:31 PM
(#3)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Well ... here's some other stuff to maybe consider ...

The last time the villain raised that large into a limper, he showed JJ.

This time he not only raised that large into limpers, he 4bet shoved into 3 of you.


Is it likely he's doing it with 88, expecting to get a fold from you after you 3bet? What were your stats?
 
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Thu Aug 30, 2012, 11:12 AM
(#4)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Thanks for the replies guys.

I think I get what you're saying Gareth, basicaly he is more likely to tilt by calling more than shoving more so when he does shove I am doing no better than I usually would be.

Also Sam, although the last time he raised that big he had JJ I had seen him raise a much wider range of hands than just big pairs. From what I had seen he could easily be holding something like J9o. Also I had a LAG image, I was playing 24/20/5.2 AF 4.7 however I don't think that he really thought much about what I was playing he seemed quite inexperienced.

Thanks again for the replies.

Oliver


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Fri Aug 31, 2012, 02:15 AM
(#5)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Hey Croyd, I really like your writings because you seem to have so much natural talent for the game, and are so thorough and stuff.

Like it's interesting to read stuff from people with the aptitude, and the drive.

And then it's interesting to note the other qualities like ... I was reading your /FEATURED BLOG/, and soooo wish I had your self-restraint and self-discipline. If I had that level of self-discipline, I doubt my blog would be 12 pages long and filled with me going 'd'oh' every time I made a station call on the river Oh well ...

Anyways ... since you were there, you were in the best position to judge, and like I got to see the ending of the hand first and stuff, but I can point out some of the other stuff I noticed if that's the kind of stuff you were looking for, just as a check on yourself just in case


Stuff like ... there was this stuff in your o/p:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Croyd93 View Post
I hadn't seen any of them get all in pre-flop but this was largely due to the fact that 3-bets were often min 3bets and they was pretty much never a 4-bet.


Here are the 4 players stats:

edbunmand - 61/21/8.3 AF 0.9
fullbook - 41/21/11.1 AF 3
Panda - 77/9/8.7 AF 0.8
Bunz1 - 68/43/15.4 AF 1.8

I don't know how many hands you had had the chance to observer, but with the number of hands these 4 were playing, if bunz has never 4bet, and never raised that big and never gone all-in before, then perhaps that might seem to indicate that his range for doing all those things might actually be closer to AA than J9o? Like if you had 100 hands of data and this was his first 4bet, then wouldn't that make his 4bet stat 1%?

Also, your 3bet stats at 5.2 includes 99, so if he was somewhat conscious of the fact that you were playing like 3x tighter than him, then there would be that - but maybe he wasn't paying that much attention

And then the final thing I noticed was that the final hand that you felt might have put the button on tilt wasn't what most people would call a true bad beat in the sense that the money went in on the flop when the two of them were about flipping (flush draw and open ender against an overpair with backdoor straight draw ... some outs compromised for both) - not sure if the button would have felt that way though


So, just some extra factors if that's what you were looking for ... thanks again for the blog with your schedule - very inspiring to those of us who have a tendency to slack off to get to see how hard other people are working.
 
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Fri Aug 31, 2012, 04:37 AM
(#6)
Croyd93's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 639
Hi Sam,

Thanks for the kind words, glad you enjoyed my blog I really do reccommend implementing a study plan/schedule. I naturally an organised person so having what I need to do each week set out for me really helps me (especially cause when you don't complete what you set out it will often drive you on to work harder).


Now back to the hand... As I pointed out in my OP; Gareth in his reply and now you in yours, this player hadn't got too wild preflop. I went to check his 4-bet stat and you were right, this was his first 4b in 48 hands. I think this was what Gareth meant when he said I misjudged the player not the situation. I still believe that he was tilting (maybe not after he binked the pot), however I think as Gareth rightly pointed out he would most likely tilt by calling much wider than shoving wider.

Thanks again for your replies and kind words.

Oliver


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Fri Aug 31, 2012, 11:32 PM
(#7)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
I had a situation like that during the Milestone Hand promotion ... where somebody had a 3bet shove range of about 45%. And so I'd been waiting and waiting for a decent enough hand so I could get in a pot with them, and wouldn't you know the one time I get a hand, they got better


Sounds like the same sort of situation there ... +++EV in the long-run. I think I ended up with a win-rate during the promotion of something like 20bb/100, or something like that including that one time?


 

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