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$5.50 MTT, turn play needs analyze

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$5.50 MTT, turn play needs analyze - Sat Sep 01, 2012, 03:10 PM
(#1)
opium.nT's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 97
Villain is a TAG with high c-bet percentage. No specific number as HM was off

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Last edited by bearxing; Sat Sep 01, 2012 at 05:24 PM..
 
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moved - Sat Sep 01, 2012, 05:26 PM
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bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
** moved to MTT analysis **


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Sat Sep 01, 2012, 07:11 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,832
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Hi opium.nT!

With QT suited and the CO making a raise to 5BB, is this their standard raise? With the opp being a TAG, if this is a higher raise than normal, it could easily be a bet tell for a monster hand. If so, then I'm mucking QTs preflop.

If the opp was playing LAG and not TAG, then I'd be much more likely to call the opp's raise, as there is a much better chance that I could be ahead of a LAG's range, but I'd be behind a TAG.

I see the flop three handed and flop trip 10's, IN position. The first opp checks and the preflop raiser makes a very small bet (1/4 pot). With the opp being a TAG, a K is well within their range, also two broadway cards for a straight draw. I want to raise here, but I need to make sure that I raise enough to price out any of the draws that either of the opps could have. To do so, I need to raise much more than a min raise here and due to two opps still in, I will raise 3/4 pot (raise to 950). With 950 being just under 1/2 my stack... I'm SHOVING the flop.
This large of a raise is needed in-case both opps call and one of them has an OESD or flush draw. If it was only 1 opp, then I could raise 1/2 pot, but with the other opp, I need to raise more. Any raise smaller than this gives the opp a +EV draw, if they have a draw, to beat me... and the last thing that I want to do is to bloat the pot and give my opps a +EV draw in doing so. That means that the opp is expected to gain chips from my raise, not me... something that I want to avoid if at all possible.

The turn brings a second flush draw, but other than that, the card should be a blank. The preflop raiser now makes another small bet (100 into a 1600 pot????). This looks like a blocking bet for a flush or straight draw. Since there is only one opp in the hand now, I need to raise 1/2 pot (950), but this is over 1/2 my remaining stack... so I'm shoving here.

Even if both opps call my flop shove, I still have outs to improve on the turn or river. I would just hope that the preflop raiser (larger than normal raise to 5BB from a TAG) doesn't show up with KK here... becuase it is DEFINITELY within their range.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Sat Sep 01, 2012, 08:08 PM
(#4)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
I don't think it's the turn where you missed opium,it's the FLOP.

First things first I'm not liking the call pre-flop at all. We're sort of between a resteal stack and being truly deep with 45 bigs and we're going to put 5 bigs in against a TAG with Q10s? Meh,even with the power of the button I don't see this as being a profitable play over time. Fold here.

Now when we hit the trips on the flop and have a check and then a min-raise in front of us from the TAG whom you have also identified as a habitual C-bettor I think a min-raise back is just a big,big leak on our part.

We're NOT taking our best shot to extract MORE chips from him (and possibly even the SB as well...)on any draws they may have by passing on a big raise on the flop as they'll be much less inclined to call the turn if they get dealt a blank. Betting the flop big is the best chance to get them to get their chips in,unless...

...the other bad part about our min-raise comes back to bite us on the ass,that being that we let the villain peel a card in a +EV spot against our min-raise and they have now hit their draw. We never want that to happen,if they're willing to make -EV draws then that's fine,the number of times they miss will more than make up for the losses when they do suck out.

I think we HAVE to make them pay as much as we can get them to pay on the flop and given the stack sizes versus the pot size here a shove over their min-raise on the flop is perfectly fine.

As played I'm OK with your shoving the turn,I just think you have a much better chance of getting paid shoving the flop in a spot like this.
 
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Mon Sep 03, 2012, 02:58 PM
(#5)
opium.nT's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 97
Thank you guys for the replies and evaluation! The replay does not show it, but the villain revealed QQ after his fold on the turn, so there was a reason for an unusual 5x pf raise indeed, just like you said. Although that raise caught my attention, I was excited by the positional advantage and suited cards.

Nowhere to hurry with the blinds going up once in 10 minutes, so guess this play would be more acceptable in a turbo or hyper tourney but those are the ones I try to avoid anyway.
 

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