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$7 stt on the bubble holding AK

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$7 stt on the bubble holding AK - Sun Sep 02, 2012, 08:18 AM
(#1)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256



ok heres where my head was at, normally im never folding here,if it had been heads up,im snap calling,when the 2nd player comes into the hand before me i thought my hand was more vulnerable 3 handed,and i might just fold my way into the money,as we see i folded the eventaul nuts but i wouldve been feeling pretty sick until the river card came,this hand wouldve given me enough chips for a likely first or second place finish,instead i ran dry after this and didnt make the money.

my question is, without the insight of the outcome,did i make the right decision to fold here? (the obvious answer seems NO , as i wouldve won the hand and been itm) or is this a snap call no matter about the action before me?
 
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hi - Sun Sep 02, 2012, 08:36 AM
(#2)
devprasad60's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 507
hallo ,

buddy i think you have nt noticed it...you still would ve lost it cos the guy who won the pot with a flush with same 4 in his hand ....so you actually didnt play bad at all....

again see the cards....the guy won the pot with a flush....u cldnt ve won anyway
 
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re post - Sun Sep 02, 2012, 09:07 AM
(#3)
milehigh0874's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 256
i wouldve made a fullhouse last time i played that beat a flush but thanks anyway for your 2 cents worth,perhaps u shouldnt analyze hands anymore P.S if you ever want to play heads up for money send me a request PLEASE

Last edited by milehigh0874; Sun Sep 02, 2012 at 09:10 AM.. Reason: add info
 
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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 09:44 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Hi milehigh0874!

Remember that we do not want to be results oritened. We want to make the best decision at that particular time based on all of the information that we have at that point in time.

With this being the bubble, I need to get into the top 3 in chips and stay there, so that I can get ITM. Being last in chips, I'm looking for any positive situation that I can find to accumulate chips to get to 3rd chip stack.

With AK, I get a shove and a call in front of me. I'd rather be in a heads-up pot, but I need to look at the numbers to see if a call is warranted.
To call, I need to put 1326 chips into a pot that will be 4528 (29.3% pot equity).
I now go to pokerstove to see if my had has this much equity.
Since there was no read information on the opps (which is necessary to put the correct opp ranges into pokerstove and should be there since this is an STT and I've been at the table the entire time).
The first scenario is for a very tight opp that shoves first (top 5% hand) and a tighter opp that calls (top 10% hand). With this situation, my AK has 31.3% hand equity.
The second is for opps with a top 10% hand ana top 20% hand... I get 40.1% hand equity here.
If the opps are looser, then my hand equity will be even higher.

All of these scenarios have a higher hand equity than my pot equity... so I'm calling here every single time.
Against the very tight opps, it's a slight +EV play, against a normal range it's over a +10%EV play and against looser players it's an even higher +EV play.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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hmm - Sun Sep 02, 2012, 09:53 AM
(#5)
lozz3r91's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 1
its a trade off between cashing and winning one of the bigger prizes, in an mtt im calling here regardless to try and win a much larger amount of money. In this situation, you have only 4bb left i think in this case you usually shove 3 way because likelyhood is youre not going to see such cards again when reaching the next set of blinds. also youre opponents could hold hands like a9 a10 kq when it has started to loosen up on the bubble, in fairness i dont think you played it badly as more often than not if there is a shove then a call it usually means a coinflip, and you obviously thought why should i risk cashing in third on this 3way pot, but i think in future this should be an instacall as youre not deep anymore like i said earlier only 4bbs. hope this helps
 
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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 10:15 AM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Hi lozz3r91!

Welcome to the forum. Here is a link that will help to get you familiar with many of the options that PSO has to offer.

Good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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may be - Sun Sep 02, 2012, 10:21 AM
(#7)
devprasad60's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 507
hi

may be you all are right in this analysis....i am not so good any way , when come to bubble play....

need to learn so much ....thanks for this insight of card analysis
 
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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 01:07 PM
(#8)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
It's not an instant call BTW and info on my opponents will also affect my decision. I can't give you an answer until I get that info.

lozz3r91
its a trade off between cashing and winning one of the bigger prizes,


I think I'm an OK STT player and I always try and make the cash first and then win the game when I'm 3 handed. I play limit STT's because I'm the reg in these and my opponents are weaker but also I can win these from a short stack should I need too.

You can't always work out the maths so quick when your in a hand but times like this are what the time bank is for. Think the hand through logically and put your opponents on a hand or a range of hands. For instance in a game I just played my opponent only raised with an A and not a pocket pair, when I was heads up I was able to use this information against him.

Your fold is not catastrophic, I know the adage is that you should always have 10BBs in your stack but in this case a chip and a chair can win you a tournament. Don't beat yourself up over it, we all make mistakes but as long as you make less mistakes than your opponents you will win cash in the long term.
 
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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 01:08 PM
(#9)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by devprasad60 View Post
hi

may be you all are right in this analysis....i am not so good any way , when come to bubble play....

need to learn so much ....thanks for this insight of card analysis
And you probably know this but it's MUCH MUCH better raising first than calling a raise/ all in.
 
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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 04:18 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
Hey gang,

Try running this through an ICM calculator, a handy tool on the bubble of STT's. You will be surprised at the result. AKo is a fold after this action. I think a large part of the reason is that the shover is at risk and generally with a much wider range than the bigger stack, and if he busts we gain a 20% jump in payout.

We may be +EV with hand equity in this situation, but our $EV is higher folding with a player who covers us at risk and a huge pay jump for us if he busts.

It would be helpful to have reads so we can estimate their ranges more precisely, but I ran 2 ICM calcs, one with an open shover at 15% and the big stack at 8%, and one where they are looser, 25% and 15% respectively. Against the looser versions ICM said we should call with KK+... against the tighter ranges only AA.

It's a surprising result I know, but sometimes on the bubble of a large pay jump this is how ICM impacts the decisions.

In a large mtt on the bubble facing a min-cash that is insignificant relative to the total prize pool, I would snap it in here every time.


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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 04:48 PM
(#11)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Sort of my hunch but in no way is this a fold for me.

It's easy running these through hand analysers and getting a decision but working these out when you're in a hand is totally different. It all boils down to notes and/ or a HUD. Even if you read the player correct, they don't always conform to it.
 
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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 05:04 PM
(#12)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,510
(Head Trainer)
That's why if you play STT's it's pretty important to study ICM both what it is and how to use it properly, so you're not leaking money on bubbles of significant pay jumps and get familiar with spots like this.

Folding AKo here certainly seems counter-intuitive to me as well, but it's actually the play that makes you the most money over time.


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Sun Sep 02, 2012, 05:41 PM
(#13)
Ovalman's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ovalman View Post
Sort of my hunch but in no way is this a fold for me.

It's easy running these through hand analysers and getting a decision but working these out when you're in a hand is totally different. It all boils down to notes and/ or a HUD. Even if you read the player correct, they don't always conform to it.
Quoting myself here but if you always make the fold then it's a leak while if you always make the call it's a leak. You need to find the right balance, something I'm still trying to find.

You need some intuition in situations like this, use your notes to help.

I put a more polarised thread up here :

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...an-I-fold-here

but it has many of the same conotations.
 

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