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10NL 6 Max huge river bet

10NL 6 Max huge river bet - Tue Sep 04, 2012, 01:03 AM
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
It was the second or third hand after Villain 1 sat down, no reads.

He did the river overbet which really seemed like a bluff, wanting me to fold. I don't know if a limper will play the nut flush this way.

In the end I folded. What would you do on the spot? Btw after 35 hands, his stats was 65/0, AF 1.1, Fold-to Cbet 50% out of 8.
Tue Sep 04, 2012, 08:52 AM
craig121212's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 246
This seems like quite a tough spot.
He could have a flush and just hoping you bet the turn again for a checkraise. He could have a different set, Two of which you beat. He could even have A2. Or K5. I think all these are possible. And then he could just have a total bluff because of the turn check he thinks he can take it down with big aggression.

Another thought that just occurred to me, he limped in preflop. If hes limping often and usually a passive player I would be laying it down I think.

Putting another $5 to make a $12.15 pot, we need to be good 42% (or there abouts) of the time to make the call +EV. I think it's close, and I have no idea what to suggest to you, I think it could go either way

Last edited by craig121212; Tue Sep 04, 2012 at 08:55 AM..
Tue Sep 04, 2012, 09:54 AM
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hi TheAwesome

A few things to note here. First is that villain's AF is 1.1, which to me, is not very high at all. I would imagine his agression on the river is quite limited based on that. So extrapolating from there I would have a hard time concluding this is a bluff.

You mention that you think his sizing is bluffy, what hands can he be bluffing here with? A hand like a pair or ace high? What I am trying to get at is that he has to have check-called the flop with any hand that he is now bluffing with. And most hands he check-calls the flop with now do not need to bluff, they have enough value on the river to win at showdown. Hands like A2, 67, and any spade draw, all completed on this board.

What's more is our opponent has made a very large bet, which lays us a bad price to call. We have to be right here quite often and I wouldn't expect it to be often enough.

Sometimes the 65/0 players get there

but that's ok!
Wed Sep 05, 2012, 01:47 AM
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks a lot people! Guess many different combinations beat me still. Better to wait for a nicer spot than to make the call

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