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Pot Odds

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Pot Odds - Sun Sep 09, 2012, 01:03 PM
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HaryTradr's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 21
In the second example of the example box at the bottom of the page
http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...hand-selection, my hole cards are 8d and 7d while the flop are 9s, 6d, 2h. There are $61 in the pot and my outs is 8( four 10 and four 5). Why should I call a $17 bet while my odds is less than (5:1) and so my expected value is negative?
Is that because we should take into account the probability of the further betting of our opponents in next streets?

Last edited by HaryTradr; Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 10:48 AM..
 
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Tue Sep 11, 2012, 10:47 AM
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HaryTradr's Avatar
Since: Jul 2012
Posts: 21
Can anyone answer? Why should we call even when the expected value seems to be negative?!
 
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Tue Sep 11, 2012, 11:42 AM
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Fadyen's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,917
At the point of the $17 bets you are in position with 2 cards to come. Either a 5 or 10 give you a straight and back door diamonds are a slim posibility so you have 8 direct outs plus a few % for backdoors, makes it about 34%-ish (I think, doing it in my head) equity against your opponents range. To call $17 into a $61 pot is giving you about 3.5 to 1 which is fine with 34% equity as you only really need 3 to 1 to make it a +EV play.

Hope this helps.



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Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:00 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi HaryTradr!

In this example, I need to call $17 into a pot that will be $78 (21.8%). I then need to see what my hand equity is, to see if it's higher than 21.8%. If so, I want to call, if not, then I'll fold.

I then go into pokerstove to see how much equity my hand has. If I put in a top 20% range for the opp, I have 45.4% equity. If I lower the opp to a top 10% range, I still have 45.0%.

My hand equity is much higher than the pot equity, so I would want to call the $17 here.

Hope this helps.

John (JWK24)


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Tue Sep 11, 2012, 12:14 PM
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ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by HaryTradr View Post
Can anyone answer? Why should we call even when the expected value seems to be negative?!
Hi HaryTradr

I agree with you at this point in the hand specifically direct odds on an open-ended straight draw (8 outs) 5 : 1 when you are only getting 61/17 = 3.6 : 1 on your money.

Considering your position and two other people in the pot there are some implied odds. Hopefully someone who knows more about this can explain the numbers.


Sorry John over lapped your post.

Last edited by ForrestFive; Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 12:15 PM.. Reason: John had replied
 

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