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25NL FR - total bluff with 66 - is my thought process right?

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25NL FR - total bluff with 66 - is my thought process right? - Mon Sep 10, 2012, 08:25 AM
(#1)
MadMike261's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 31
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, €0.25 BB (7 handed)
** unacceptable link removed **
SB (€25)
BB (€25.98)
UTG (€25.85)
MP1 (€30.95)
Hero (MP2) (€28.35)
CO (€33.30)
Button (€9.49)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
1 fold, MP1 calls €0.25, Hero calls €0.25, CO calls €0.25, Button calls €0.25, SB bets €2.25, 2 folds, Hero calls €2, 2 folds

Flop: (€5.50) , , (2 players)
SB bets €3.25, Hero calls €3.25

Turn: (€12) (2 players)
SB bets €5.50, Hero raises to €22.85 (All-In), SB ?

So the Villian here is a pretty TAG kind of guy, AF:2.3 VPIP:17 PFR:13 3-Bet:7.1 Squeeze: too small sample, over 233 hands
With a tendency to re-raise quite a bit from the SB or BB (12% 3-bet from both positions) and he didn't get to showdown very often (3 out of 28 times)

My thinking at the time was that he might very well be doing this squeeze here light a small % of the time and if not I had some descent odds. So I called as there were still 2 more fishy players to act behind me. Maybe not entirely the proper odds, but one of them was bound to have something to stack off with if I hit my set.
But they both folded.

On that flop I was certainly not folding instantly. He would certainly also be c-betting there with pre-flop bluffs and AK enough off the time. My plan was to re-evaluate on the turn with a good chance of folding if he would bet again.

But then the perfect turn came off. As he bet again I put him either on AK or JJ+ and in either case he wouldn't have 2 clubs. And my gut just told me I should go for it here. And after a short tank I decided to gather my guts and use them. So I shoved.

After the hand I was wondering if this was a total fish move or not.
So I decided to post it

Last edited by bearxing; Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 11:10 AM..
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 11:16 AM
(#2)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Hi MadMike,

Thanks for posting, this is a fairly common spot that people get in trouble with, so it's nice to look at here.

First of all preflop I usually don't like to limp in your spot. If the table is very loose-passive then limp is ok, but it is generally better to raise and isolate on the fishy limper (you gave no reads for MP1 but whenever I see someone open limp first in the pot, I mark them as a fish until they prove otherwise).

If the SB is bad he might squeeze light, but a decent player should probably never be light here since there's already 3 fish in the pot. His bet is for value most of the time even if he is bad imo. I think calling the raise is fine. You've got about 13-1 implied odds if no one else calls, 2 fish behind who may overcall and increase your price, and the positional advantage on the raiser even if they don't.

Flop call is fine and standard, agree he's going to c-bet this board frequently.

I totally disagree on the turn card being a good card for you, I actually think it's one of the worst. All of his unpaired high card value range just got there. The pocket pairs may not like it, but half of those combos have picked up a big flush draw. And if he's ranging you, the flop call can look like flush draws and big aces are a part of your range as well, and he doesn't care, he's betting again. For that reason I would just give up when he barrels this turn card. I don't like your move here because I don't think he's folding an ace at this point, nor a big flush draw. If he was the type of player that would fold any of these hands, then we could have raised the flop and bombed the turn to get him off basically his whole range that isn't AA. So I think the best thing here is just to waive the white flag and surrender to his 2nd barrel this time.

Dave


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Last edited by TheLangolier; Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 11:18 AM..
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 11:56 AM
(#3)
MadMike261's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 31
Hey Dave,

Thanks for the excellent motivation there.

The MP1 was also a pretty fishy guy (great table!) and I avoided an isolation raise there because I found it likely the other 2 fishy guys behind were going to call pretty wide anyway. So I opted to limp because of this. Normally I never ever limp anything.

After I went all-in the guy tanked and eventually folded.
Putting this in chat: "77?"
I guess he believe I SHOULD never be bluffing there.
At this point I was quite happy to dodge things there.

And now I feel like I was too biased, because it worked, to even partly think I did a great move there. But I will stay away from this move for the future...

Mike
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 12:06 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,476
(Head Trainer)
Nice hand.

Maybe he made a big laydown, but my guess is more likely he had 2 red jacks or something similar and was just bet/folding despite the tank.


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