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need help with experiment

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need help with experiment - Mon Sep 10, 2012, 02:36 PM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Hi I need one mod and one pso member to help out with an experiment.

The experiment is basically, I need one pso member to pretend they are variance, and for 20 days of play variance favours either LAG or TAG, so I need you to write TAG or LAG in random order 20 times.

This is where the MOD comes into it, I want your 20 random TAG/LAG to be sent to the MOD if one will spare the time and help out.

I will then send 20 random TAG or LAG to the MOD, as the style I decided to play on that day.

and then I would ask the mod to repost both in this post, not mixing them up lol.

This is test one, in can variance be beaten!

Please any new players or begginers etc, take no note of my post as its just some experiments im running at the moment.
Glad for you to read my post, but in no way take any of this into your play.
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 03:11 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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That won't accomplish, nor prove a single thing... and I know for certain that I will NOT be a part of it, nor recommend that anyone else would be!

John (JWK24)


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 03:37 PM
(#3)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
John its just an experiment?, something to debate.

Experiments are how the world ticks, finding new ideas and concepts.

I put a disclaimer.

If it helped nobody else it would help me, and I thought pokerschool was about helping each other in the understandings of poker.

Just because I want to explore, and get a reply like that, thats
disapointing from a respected mod, when im keeping my posts toned down and keeping in pso guidlines, whats wrong with an experiment?

 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 03:53 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,819
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
John its just an experiment?, something to debate.
If you want to run an experiment, that's fine. However, I would not want ANY MOD to be a part of it.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 03:59 PM
(#5)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
for 20 days of play variance favours either LAG or TAG
Holdemace, variance always favours TAG.

LAG is almost by defintion a style that is higher variance than TAG




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:01 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Abolutely varience can be beaten ..... And the answer is super simple ........ DON'T PLAY !!
Problem solved! thank you for participating


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:02 PM
(#7)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
If you want to run an experiment, that's fine. However, I would not want ANY MOD to be a part of it.

John (JWK24)
ok john sorry understood, no problem, ok i need two pso members to help out in an experiment as original post,and hopefully then I can show you more what im on about, and try to explain better.
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:06 PM
(#8)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
Abolutely varience can be beaten ..... And the answer is super simple ........ DON'T PLAY !!
Problem solved! thank you for participating
well exactly mtn, if you did not play on those downswings or switched your style on those downswings maybe you could beat variance.

think about it . look at your graphs, if you could avoid or second guess those days when variance was not your freind, you could in fact beat variance, even if it was some of the time, but thats another form of variance,and not the experiment im working on lol, thats experiment two lol.

and may the tin foil hat protect you from me lol

p.s thinking learning omaha next year lol

Last edited by holdemace486; Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 04:12 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:11 PM
(#9)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
ahar? how does variance favour tag, when variance does not favour any one by right,

this is what I am on about, sometimes variance favours the LAG, sometimes I see im running good on scraps, variance is my freind, then other days I wish i had played TAG and vice versa.

Them days you lose playing TAG, just maybe if you had played LAG you may of won.

like i said though to all beginners and newbies,this posts are only theories, please do not try to take this to the tables.

PSO teaches long term success, remember that
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:24 PM
(#10)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
If you want two random TAG/LAG lines of 20 each by two people, then u actually need noones participation..... you simply need to flip a coin 40 times


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:31 PM
(#11)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
ahar? how does variance favour tag, when variance does not favour any one by right,

this is what I am on about, sometimes variance favours the LAG, sometimes I see im running good on scraps, variance is my freind, then other days I wish i had played TAG and vice versa.

Them days you lose playing TAG, just maybe if you had played LAG you may of won.

like i said though to all beginners and newbies,this posts are only theories, please do not try to take this to the tables.

PSO teaches long term success, remember that
Luck does not favour anyone. But some playing styles results will be more susceptible to luck than others.

You cannot dodge luck by switching playing styles.

If you want to reduce your variance, use a TAG style.

This does not however guarantee the best profits. Just the lowest variance results.

That being said. I'm out. Good Luck in your venture.




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:35 PM
(#12)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
yes thank you mtn that is a good option, i wanted two random people just to show the results I was using was fair and completely random.

MY idea was that each day either the tag or the lag is favoured by variance of the deck, its more like hours or minutes even, but for example would use days.

It would not prove anything but would show some interesting results to debate and think about as a group, something interesting for a change to talk about.

My idea was i would obviously overlap the results, to see if random guessing of a style on any given day could be more efficient or not as the results may show,

I have got a feling though by second guessing the style, it could in fact create more variance, or maybe it may work as we would still play the premiums the same way when playing lag. need some one to be a honest and do some random variance favouring tag or lag for 20 times.
Then i can show more of what i mean.

Last edited by holdemace486; Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 04:40 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 04:39 PM
(#13)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Thank you andy ahar your input most appreciated
 
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Mon Sep 10, 2012, 05:42 PM
(#14)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
you can NOT beat variance by randomly picking a playing style period, and even by picking it intelligently, you still dont "beat" it, so only by not playing at all can you "beat" it, and thus have a 0 expected value. exactly like this experiment 0 EV ... with that i'm out too


May the tinfoil protect you. MT
 
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Tue Sep 11, 2012, 07:17 AM
(#15)
alanj28's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 138
The only way to beat so called varience is to use proper brm. If your running bad play 0.10 tourneys its not going to effect your roll. When your running a bit better move up the stakes again. I know its easier said than done and sounds really nitty but if its going to keep you in the game it has to be done. Your playing style should depend on the dynamics of the table/game/player you are playing at any givin time if that makes any sense.


 
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Wed Sep 12, 2012, 12:21 AM
(#16)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
well exactly mtn, if you did not play on those downswings or switched your style on those downswings maybe you could beat variance.

think about it . look at your graphs, if you could avoid or second guess those days when variance was not your freind, you could in fact beat variance, even if it was some of the time, but thats another form of variance,and not the experiment im working on lol, thats experiment two lol.

and may the tin foil hat protect you from me lol

p.s thinking learning omaha next year lol

Okay, lol, not sure why this is, but I always seem to get what you're getting at holdem, and sometimes your ideas are kind of cool, even though they do tend to be a little 'out there' lol

It sort of sounds like you're talking about polarization ... playing hands that are the opposite not only of the range of the typical opponent but also the range of yourself.

The idea I guess goes something like that if you and your opponents are only playing AQ+, 99+, and then so your tradidtional polarized range or whatever it's called might be 44-66 (for set-mining), 56s-JTs to try and make straights or flushes ... then if none of those hands seem to be hitting, MIGHT that then mean that it's other hands' 'turn' to make hands? And then even if they miss, with position, could a cbet not possibly still win the hand if the other person misses?


I was in an ugly downswing for about 25,000 hands, and admit that I tried cbetting more (like around 70%), and you know how normally we're all supposed to be connecting with the flop about 1/3 the time? Well I could swear that during my downswing, not only was I only making hands around only like 12% of the time (and then that 10% of the time other people were connecting with better), but also when I wasn't connecting, others seemed to be around like 70% of the time instead of just 33%. Like zomg, the check-raises ... ughhhh .........

So if that was happening with premium hands like AK, KK just imagine the domination issues that playing a hand like J3s could pose?

I guess that's maybe why tight's mostly right, even when it's losing in the short-term? Like maybe it makes us more during upswings, but also loses us less in downswings?


Like, okay ... I guess I've done more than just cbet with premiums ... sometimes I've gone a little 'out there' with 'pot-odds' or whatever, and then I did connect with the flop, but with a hand like 83s, I guess the pressure's on to really hit the flop hard to be able to continue? Which didn't wind up happening to me here:




Like I know there's those people who play weird hands and then wind up beating our premium hands, but I'm just never that lucky to have the same happen to me when I play crap, eh? Maybe that person isn't either on the whole?




Like maybe staying tight loses us less than trying to polarize all your hands - because of the thingie of even though we're not connecting with the board doesn't mean that other people aren't on heaters and we could wind up making a hand that's in bad shape and wind up losing even more? But maybe there'd be SOME room to add some bluffy hands ... as like a 3bet bluff? That's an interesting idea ...



Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 12:37 AM..
 
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Wed Sep 12, 2012, 02:07 PM
(#17)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
hI ALAN, yes your style and play should be determined by the way the other ops are playing.

And proper BR management is what helps with variance.

You say , drop to 10c for example if you are on a downswing, and then move up when you are running good.

Is this alone a statement spotting when variance is favouring you or when it is not favouring you in a sense?,

ANy player can see by their own poker graph when one of the many forms of variance strikes as such, either plus variance, or negative variance for example.

Or though I see many types of variance,

a few examples would be

the number of players, i see the more the players the less likely it would be to win that game, therefore I call this player variance.

Lesser player variance, or as we know the fish, this creates more variance as they do not know to fold etc.

The rich man variance, he as lots of BR and does not care.

So on and so , the list is endless to variance in poker.

Think about this , every day we search for the lesser player to take their chips, this alone is helping variance favour us as our skills are greater than the fish.


I really hope you can or some of you understand what my thinkings are and why.

Yes I may over think things etc, and maybe yes I overwrite a subject, but I would be rather thinking ,than not thinking, as I want to be different, I want to play different, I want a style that does not exist, and like as players before when they
have their smallballs and their ten 2s, I want an edge,

Last edited by holdemace486; Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 02:08 PM.. Reason: typo
 
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Wed Sep 12, 2012, 02:20 PM
(#18)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Ty sam for the great post, and yes I think you have got the generall idea of what im trying to say and establish.

Polarization, so yes I suppose reversed polarity.

I sometimes play at 100 percent vpip, raising every hand the standrd raise for the situation.
x3 bb and 1 for each limper,

I have situations where I create my own situation, meaning every one keeps folding waiting to trap me, but they call i know they probably got a hand, they raise they probably got it.

But sometimes they raise, and well I have got it.

But yes somedays those aces, and those standard TAg hands just dont work, so on those days maybe a lag or even looser game would.

Variance favours one or the other, so maybe our guessing would be better than fate.

I may need toaddsome more sam justneed reread your post and see if I have put any sense lol.

Well yes sam i am constantly bluffing and even calling down with air,I want to look like the idiot, but in fact am in control of the situation if you can follow that.I make the situation, i control the opps play, they do the expected giving away their hand every time.

Last edited by holdemace486; Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 02:28 PM.. Reason: add on
 
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Wed Sep 12, 2012, 04:38 PM
(#19)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Seems to be a lot of confusion here.

Variance is variance.

Its the bit you have no control over.

Doesn't matter if you play lag, tag, fag, gag, or whatever.

You cannot beat variance - it just happens.

You can play games that inherently have less variance.

You can play styles that inherently have less variance.

But you never 'beat' variance.

It just happens - you play through it.

And this does not deserve the word 'experiment'

Go read some Popper.

Ed
 
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Wed Sep 12, 2012, 06:00 PM
(#20)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Thank you ed and you are probably right, the word experiment obviously means something different than just testing a theory I have, to see if there was any creditability to my test, but I will never know and continue to never know as my experiment did not even get two volunteers just even to humour me if you like.

Experiments are experiments, wether it be the newbie testing some posistion play , or me with some strange but advanced theories on poker, but either way some where along the way we all experiment.

These ideas some people may never understand, but without even getting my test of the ground , I can still not show the point im trying to get across, and see if my own point,which I might add, that I do not know if it as any relevance or not, so therefore wanted to run an experiment with who I thought, well thought some off you, maybe are my freinds and would help out.

I honestly think I need to find another forum, I hate to say that ,but unbeleivable that no one wants to talk any advanced stuff no matter how the idea sounds.

P.s i do opologise to the odd person who will discuss advanced theories.

Last edited by holdemace486; Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 06:03 PM.. Reason: a p.s
 

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