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2nl FR AQ with a scary board

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2nl FR AQ with a scary board - Sun Sep 16, 2012, 03:05 PM
(#1)
Garrns's Avatar
Since: Sep 2012
Posts: 44
Villain is 16 tabling 2nl and relatively tight and passive (14/2 after over 100 hands). My own image should be on the TAG side of things.



I got scared with the ten on the turn. In hindsight I wouldn't expect that guy to chase a draw for ~2:1 pot odds, which puts him on AA,AK,AQ or KK. I think I could have played this better, maybe c-betting the turn for less than half pot?
 
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Sun Sep 16, 2012, 07:49 PM
(#2)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Personally, I would never fold there as KK, AJ, KQ & QT are only a part of their range. My standard c-bet is ~2/3 the pot so I am leading the flop and turn for that amount. If the river is a J or 9 making four to a straight I check call the river otherwise I bet about 1/2 the pot.

YMMV

Good decisions!
 
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Mon Sep 17, 2012, 11:42 AM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
Hi Garrns,

Definitely don't like check-folding the turn here. I assume he's not open limping despite the passive stats, so he is probably flatting you pre with close to a 14% range. If you look at that range it is roughly: 77+,A8s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo. Further, you can take out AA and KK as those would likely be 3b despite the fact that he's been passive over this small sample size.

So when you look at that preflop calling range, what in it is continuing on the flop from a 16 tabling reg (presumably playing straight forward and not floating you with air)? All the Kx combos, all the Qx combos, and JTs for sure. So that's K9s+, QTs+, KJo+, QJo+, and JTs.

So what's the combinatorics of the situation?

Hands in his flop calling range we're beating on the turn:
K9s (3 combos)
KTs (2 combos)
KJ (12 combos)
AK (12 combos)
JTs (3 combos)
QJ (4 combos)

Hands beating us:
QTs (1 combos)
KQ (3 combos)

Hope I didn't miss any there... that would make us a 36-4 or 9-1 favorite to still have the best hand on the turn. This is a bit of guesswork on the ranges, as I don't think he'd peel with AJ or TT, but the numbers don't change much then relatively speaking if he would, since then we also add in more hands we're beating such as JJ and AT, and we have equity (outs) vs. AJ and TT as well. So over all we need to be continuing in this spot, and I would usually just be betting again here as he will call with much of this range.

Dave


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