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2NL 6max zoom: Nut flush draw 2 overs, check-shove flop

2NL 6max zoom: Nut flush draw 2 overs, check-shove flop - Tue Sep 18, 2012, 01:24 PM
craig121212's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 246

I personally think this is a +ev shove, we have 9 outs for out flush and 6 for our overcards, so 15 outs with 2 cards to come is actually more than 50% equity.

The only cards that have us in slightly worse shape are:
QQ we have 12 outs against
KK we also have 12 outs against, or chance to runner-runner Q's
AA we have 9 outs against, or runner runner Q's
AK we have 12 outs against

Is this actually a +ev shove, and would others do the same?
Tue Sep 18, 2012, 08:16 PM
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
It is not so clear that you will be a favourite versus his calling range because of your "15" outs. The reason for this is because the board is paired. So if he has a pocket pair he will have 4 outs to fill up and render your flush outs anemic.

So that is one part of the problem. The other is fold equity. In this scenario you are probably only getting AK to fold out of the hands that are better than ours, and sometimes at 2nl I imagine some players will call with AK here.

What about worse hands calling? Well in order for a worse hand to call our opponent would have had to reraise a hand like AJ or 89 before the flop. This seems unlikely. So it is both unlikely that he reraises preflop and that he calls off with a weaker hand once you check-raise all-in.

For that reason alone I am tempted to go with the check-call path. It is certainly an easier way to play the hand, to check-raise all-in, but if you are willing to stretch your game out a bit, check-calling I believe can be higher EV. If we hit a Q or an A, our opponent will be willing to bluff these cards should he not have a pair, since they are likely scare cards to our hand, even though they are not. Similarly we can control if the money goes in when we hit or flush or not. In the check-raise all-in scenario we make sure our money goes in either way, but of course, we don't always get there. I think both are ok ways to play the hand. As you said its going to be hard for check-raise all-in to be a -EV play.

But consider that we might only get AK to fold and that, most of the time, we can either draw out on AK or bluff it out if the turn goes check-check, or if we check-raise all-in at that point over another bet.

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