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PSOWCOOP hand from today's tourni.

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PSOWCOOP hand from today's tourni. - Wed Sep 19, 2012, 02:14 PM
(#1)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
This is a really interesting spot in the PSOWCOOP tourni this evening.

I'd been pretty active which is very relevant to oriholic's decision making process as to how to play the hand. So I've included a few hands leading up to the final showdown











In chat afterwards I was saying that I thought it was a none optimal strategy OOP despite his take on my style. It would be fascinating to here what y'all think. A truely interesting poker spot on many levels. I really wasn't comfortable making the shuv in the end as he'd taken a line for AA of KK but of course there was the chance he had AK too so I was going to reevaluate post flop. I miss read his min bet, looked at the chips in the pot and popped the rest of mine in to join them!

It would have been a super tough fold but I guess, looking back at the hand now I would still have had over 10 bigs and another chance to find myself a better spot.

Oriholic played the hand really well so not only was I beaten by the cards I was beaten by a better player. I'm not bitter, honestly, lol.

Great fun and just what it's all about.

WP oriholic.

CptKevUK.

Last edited by CptKevUK; Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 01:14 AM..
 
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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:02 PM
(#2)
bearxing's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 499
** moved to proper forum **


3 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 09:04 PM
(#3)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Oooops, sorry, forgot about that. Thanks.

K.
 
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Wed Sep 19, 2012, 11:14 PM
(#4)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Hi Kev,

It looks like the last hand you're asking about is missing.

Can you check?

Cheers
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 01:15 AM
(#5)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Hi Andy.

It was working when I looked at the thread just now but I've deleted it and reloaded it with a fresh 'tag' so hopefully that helps.

Cheers,
K.
 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 01:46 AM
(#6)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
Cool, can see it now.

I don't think I'm folding here. I assume the villian is oriholic who plays a little looser that most .

I think flatting the 4bet preflop is ok. If we 5 bet we're probably only getting called by the hands that beat us.

When I see what looks to be a safe flop. I'm just getting it in after the small CBet. If I call i'm not folding on any later streets probably so not point in giving the villian a chance to catch up or face a scary turn or river.

Villian just got lucky on this flop. 9 other times the flop comes different they cbet and we get in it.

Thanks
Andy




Quad Bracelet Winner

 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 07:33 AM
(#7)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Hi Andy. Thanks for that. So reassuring to hear you say you would have taken the same line in that spot. I guess with any loosing play there is the temptation to think that one got it wrong.

My lasting sensation is that I got it wrong in the sense that I didn't have a solid enough read on my opponent to be confident I was ahead. I was kind of thinking I was beat when I shuved and so then I have to ask myself why did I shuv?! I didn't go with my read so much as crossing my fingers and sticking them in, that can't be a great way to proceed in the long run, lol!!

But, it's certainly something that will get filed in the memory banks against that particular opponent and opponents like that in general. He was very confident with his line in chat after the hand which was interesting as I was maintaining that his was not an optimal play OOP even against an active opponent, but I guess he had the stack to make that type move.

Thanks for the feedback, much appreciated.

K.
 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 09:28 AM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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Hey Kev!

I agree with Andy here too. Depending on the opp, if they are playing as a station or maniac, I could 5-bet shove pre... or if it's a better opponent, I'd flat their 4-bet.

On the flop however, I wouldn't call their very small c-bet. If the opp is looser, but knows odds, then I am definitely raising the c-bet because the small bet of 900 would basically price in a straight draw.... and with a smart, looser opp, connectors (especially suited connectors) are well within their range. There's no way I'm not going broke with JJ on this flop, as a standard raise would be for the majority of my stack, so I'd shove the flop.

John (JWK24)

P.S. Great example of why I hate having JJ, because you're always going to be in a sticky situation.


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6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 09:37 AM
(#9)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Nice one John thanks for that.

The commentary the other day was great, any plans to do more of that?

Personally I love all poker hands equally!!

K.
 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 10:11 AM
(#10)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,862
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BronzeStar
Hi Kev!

I'm not sure what's in the plans for it. I will say, however, that it was interesing, doing that for the first time with the people at the table actually watching. I wanted to say a lot more about my hands and why I did things... but couldn't, so that I gave away as little as possible about what my hand strength was.

Too bad my internet cut out on me part-way thru it. Nothing I could do about that.

John


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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 04:35 AM
(#11)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hey Kev, glad to see you posted this hand, and not in a dismissive way at all. I know a lot of people would be thinking more along the lines of "OMG can't believe that donk luckboxed three 9s!"

This one's gonna be long, but I think it's good stuff...

So I was opening a lot of hands, let's say 30% from this position, for a minraise. You appeared to be 3-betting me a lot, which is the correct adjustment to my wide opening range. There's 685 in the pot and you're 3-betting in position to 750. You're getting a great price on your 3-bet, needing to get an immediate fold just 750/(685+750) = 52% of the time, assuming your hand has no equity. That is, if I'm folding 52% of the time or more you are absolutely printing money 3-betting me with any two cards here! And the first few times you 3-bet me, I absolutely am! I'm out of position so I'm not going to want to play many hands without the initiative, and if I call you effectively win even more money since you have position and I'm going to have to check/fold or check/raise with limited information. Again, printing money. And of course even your light 3-bet hands will have some equity.

Okay, now let's look at my 4-betting range. If I only continue with TT+, AQ+, AJs+, KQs, 5% of hands this is only 17% of my opening range. Clearly this is exploitable.

Now if you're 3-betting me a lot I can adjust in one of two ways--I can tighten up my open range (that's easy, I have no problem nitting it up) OR I can play back at you and widen my 4-bet range.

Now in truth my range is so weak that playing back at you with 48% of it is gonna kind of suck. This would be a range like 77+, AJ+, A2s-A5s, A7s+, KJ+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s. And I'm doing it on the fly with little experience in these kinds of spots, but I'm going to add in a bunch of hands to prevent folding too much. I am playing them mostly as bluffs, but since you will sometimes call I prefer to have hands with some postflop potential as well as blockers to the top of your range. In other words I will probably substitute some of the smaller pairs, T9s, JTs even, for Kxs, and the remaining suited ace A6s. By having an ace in my hand it makes it less likely that you have AA or AK, by having a K in my hand it makes KK and AK less likely. Plus if I hit a pair on the flop with say K9s, it's more likely to be a strong hit than say a pair with the T9s, since the K is an overcard to TT-QQ. I might hood some of the 78s-QKs though, intending to check/raise if I flop good equity/ the kind of flop that's better for my OOP flatting range than your 3-betting range, ie. 789ss type flops.

So I see that my K9s is one of the better hands in my opening range but as a 3-gapper I don't really want to call, so I decide to 4-bet. 4-bets tend to be pretty small, as they're for an amount that usually commits you to the pot and puts you in a shove/fold state with most of your holdings. I 4-bet to double your 3-bet size as that looks strong (I believe I had done it with AK and KK prior), but at the same time it's small enough I can get away from the hand. I'm risking 1200 to win 1435, so if my 4-bet makes you fold immediately 45% of the time I am winning chips on average. I don't expect you to 5-bet bluff me often, so I will be playing exploitably tight to your 5-bets. I figure at this point you're going to jam all your QQ+, AK and fold everything else except maybe TT-JJ (as I think you'll usually flat the initial raise with 22-99). Seems weak to fold TT/JJ getting such a good price (750 into a 2635 pot), but you know if I call your 5-bet I'm unlikely to have worse than AK/QQ. You also might hood flat AQ/AJ/KQ type hands, looking to hit the pair since I am giving you 3.5 to 1 odds on a 2 to 1 shot.

Either flatting or shoving seem okay here with JJ...by flatting you do stay ahead of some portion of my range, and can get away when an ace or king flops, since my range is super ace and king heavy, and if you run into my aces or kings on a flop of undercards you can just call it a cooler. On the other hand by shoving you pick up a 2635 chip pot, risking 4330. This time I really will only be continuing with the very top of my range, let's say QQ+, AK. If called, you have about 36% equity assuming I call with all my AK combos.

We can now work out how often I need to fold for shoving JJ to be profitable:

0 ≤ F(2635) + (1-F)(.36(6965)-(.64)(4330)) i.e. F% of the time I fold, and when I call, you have 35% chance of winning a (4330+2635=6965) chip pot, and a 64% chance of losing 4330 extra.
0≤F(2635)+(1-F)(2507.4-2771.2)
0≤F(2635)+(1-F)(-263.8)
0≤F(2635+263.8)-263.8
263.8≤F(2898.8)
.091≤F

That is, if I'm folding more than 9% of the time, just 9%, you will be making an absolute killing in cEV. Since there is no way that QQ+, AK makes up 90% of my 4-bet range. This is clearly a very good option.

If my continuing range is just QQ+, your JJ is obviously in worse shape when called, but you still have 18% equity.
Now you end up needing me to fold 46% of the time...sounds like 5 times as much...but...to see how easy this is, pretend my 4-bet range is AK+, QQ+ and I'm folding all the AK combos to the 5-bet...16 combos of AK and 6 combos each of QQ+, 18 combos of bigger pairs...simply folding my AK hands has me folding 47% of the time!

Now if I think I'm being exploited I need to widen my range to get it in vs. a 5-bet. Now I have to go forth with JJ, TT, AQs, etc. to even have a chance at not showering you with free chips.

So that's the preflop action in a nutshell. I definitely think that with this depth of stacks just shipping it is superior to trying to play a flop, even in position.

Postflop:

So you flat the 4-bet in position. There is 3385 in the pot and you have 3580 behind. For this reason I think I should have 4-bet a little larger (or even a little smaller). I'm not a fan of overbet jamming the pot here. I want to make the kind of bet where I can get away from my weak hands, and such that it looks like I can get away from my weak hands. This allows you to jam with your weak hands if you think you can get me off my weak hands (you can). At the same time this bet looks like enough to get all the money in the middle if we both have a strong holding. You will either flat if you think I'm crazy enough to continue bluffing the next street OR if you think I will give up on the turn with everything worse than your hand (but you have to know which is more likely) or you can ship it to prevent me from seeing a free ace or king. If the turn is an ace or king you pretty much have to be done with the hand, but it's pretty unlikely that an ace or king comes. Putting so much of your stack in and folding is usually pretty bad, and you will have no choice but to fold if an ace or king comes. So it's probably better to just stick all your chips in now and hope I had a couple of overcards.

Action: You call. The pot is now 5185, and you have 2680 behind.

The turn is a blank. I check as I would with my entire range. This 5 does nothing to help me represent a strong hand and it doesn't look like I'll be able to bluff you off anything. With 5k in chips I can still check/fold my air and have a comfortable stack. You also miight be floating me some of the time with like a JT/QT/QJ type hand that couldn't fold when I gave such good odds on the flop. I decide to check and let you put in money with any non-paired hand you might have, that I don't think would have called a bet. Again, I TOTALLY have hands like AK/AQ/KQ/KJ/Ax in my range at this point. Note at this point my range is super polarized. I either have an overpair, 9x, 8x, or air. And there's like 6 combos of 8s I can have (A8s, K8s) so that's pretty unlikely. Okay, I flopped three 9s. I have the nuts. There is basically no way you can have a better hand than me at this point given the action. You have at best 8 outs with a small portion of your range, and 2 outs with your pairs. It doesn't really matter if you draw out with some of your hands, because on most rivers I'm still way ahead of your value range. I do give you the opportunity to take a free card. The last 2680 can go in on the turn or on the river. By checking I allow you to risk 2680 to win 5185...ie. if I fold more than 34% of the time and you lose 100% when called, it's +EV for you to push. In this spot though, I never have 88 for quads, so you still have your 2 outs to jacks full. This gives you added equity so I don't even need to fold that often (you can work out the new percentage if you want) I'm obviously never folding QQ or better. So my range to call you will be something like 9x, QQ+. This is such a small part of my range that doing anything besides trying to pick up the dead money here has to be a mistake. I'm not putting another chip in with a worse hand, and there are still up to 8 aces and kings that can come on the river and make you throw up. Betting forces me to either fold, giving up my equity share which has to be significant, as I always have at least one overcard. Or I have to call it off getting a pretty lame price to draw to an overcard or two. AK only has about 12% chance of spiking the river so calling 2 to 1 odds sucks.

Action: You ship, and I snap with K9s. You miss your 2 outs on the river.

In summary what I did in this hand is gave you opportunities to play well against my range, but poorly against my actual hand. If I showed you my hand you probably don't make any of the same choices.

Now this 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet reasoning doesn't apply against a nit. I would not be 4-betting a nit's 3-bet without AA. I would probably just fold most of the time, but I might hoodflat and try to bink something with suited connectors and pocket pairs.
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 05:39 AM
(#12)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Really mate, if you could just go into a bit more detail I might have an idea what you are getting at!! ;-)

Really interesting stuff. I really don't think about my game on this kind of level, my brain simply isn't big enough!! But I get it and it's fascinating reading and I will factor in the key points you are making into my decision making in the future, or at least try harder to bare them in mind.

Thanks for taking the time to put it all down in writing.

Not delighted about calling with my QJo on the FT last night. Another spot where if I am happy to go broke with that hand shuv em in from the outset and at least put what fold equity I have into effect. Or raise fold them pre if and not go broke with such a marginal holding.

My brain tends not to work great sometimes in those spots, which is a tad frustrating!!

All good stuff though and one can only keep trying and hopefully getting better

PSO rocks!!

K.
 

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