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Psowcoop-55

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Psowcoop-55 - Thu Sep 20, 2012, 07:10 PM
(#1)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Another fascinating poker spot from the PSOWCOOP, this time in event 55.

It's important to note I think that both players took a long time to consider each move in the hand..... Any guesses on which player is the the Villain and which Player is the Hero?!

Also the Hero was down to 6bb a while back. I guess that's one of the big hooks about poker, you just never know....

Enjoy. Can someone give ESPN a heads up?!





p.s. the villain was holding QThh. Sounds a bit harsh calling him a villain in this situation!!

Last edited by CptKevUK; Thu Sep 20, 2012 at 07:15 PM..
 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 07:59 PM
(#2)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Hi,
Does the Hero play a loose aggressive style? When should you 3b or fold from a btn steal?
Leave that one for Dave.
 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 08:00 PM
(#3)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
I'm not sure the Hero has any idea what style he, or she, plays!!
 
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Thu Sep 20, 2012, 11:53 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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Hi Kev!

With K4s, I'm priced in to call the opp's bet preflop (20% pot equity) and a read on the opp would really help. Against a top 20% range, I've got 38.9% equity or against a top 10% range, I've got 33.5%. Both ranges give me a positive play to call.
However, I would not raise here with K4s out of position. By making a raise to 2556, I'm raising my pot equity to 41.2! This raise is a -EV play against any non-super wide opponent.

The flop is a total miss for me, no pair, no flush draw, nothing. Here is another spot where a read on the opp is critical. If the opp has a tendency to call, then I'm checking the flop, as if there is a high % that I'll get called, I'm tossing away chips. The only way that I'd bet here is if the opp is a total nit that would fold the overwhelming majority of the time and then, I'll make a 1/2 pot value bet like I have an A.

The turn is another A. I'm check/folding here basically every time. The only way that I'll have bet the flop is against someone that will fold everything except a made hand... and if they call the flop bet, they'll have an ace almost 100% of the time here.

Yes, it's ok to sometimes bluff, but without a very good read on the opp... I'm not trying it here being OOP.

I'm calling the preflop raise and check/folding every street after it here unless I improve.. which didn't happen.

I'm also very surprised that the opp mucked QT on the turn. If they call a flop bet with it and the A pairs (much less of a chance of you having an A), then I'd have called the turn immediately.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)

P.S. From the way this hand played out... LAG that prices themselves out of pots... then tries to bluff their way out of -EV plays.


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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 12:30 AM
(#5)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Quote:
Originally Posted by CptKevUK View Post
I'm not sure the Hero has any idea what style he, or she, plays!!
He would call, she may own you later.
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 03:31 AM
(#6)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Hi John, fascinating to hear the math breakdown for a hand where I don't think the actual equity in the pot was the Hero's main motivation for the line taken in this spot. I'm surprised our Hero had as much equity as you say he, or she, did. It looks like there was a predetermined attempt to try and take this pot down in a typical bb on button tussle where both holdings can't often be marginal.

One interesting aspect from a read point of view is that after the Hero made the raise pre the Villain posted in chat that he was putting the Hero on A8. I can tell you that our Hero took this to mean one of two things; that this is a very good read of exactly the type of hand that the Hero was trying to represent, or that that was almost exactly the hand that the villain himself was holding. So when the board played out like it did the Hero felt it was reasonable, sensing weakness from the Villain, to continue with the pre flop intention of bluffing at the pot and putting pressure on the Villain to make the hero call.

What I think made this a buyable line was the pre flop raise by our Hero (the loose and crazy fool, I blame watching too much poker highlights on youtube and tv!!) without which it would have been much harder to sell convincingly. It's always good to have a plan.

I can also tell you that our Hero could sense oriholic on the other side of the table silently screaming CALL, for goodness sake CALL, lol!!

Our Hero went on to finish 5th in the tournament and he (OK, I can reveal he is a he not a she!) was surprised just how focused, excited and in the FT zone he was for a play money tourni.

PSO rocks!! Keep up the good work guys,

K.

Last edited by CptKevUK; Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:36 AM..
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 03:46 AM
(#7)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
With a hand like K4s I like a 3-bet from the blinds. This hand is not going to play well out of position without the initiative, and you will still get a lot of folds vs. a player with a wide opening range here. Hands like K4s also play fairly well in 3-bet pots. If you flop a pair of kings you can play for stacks much more easily than if you flopped a pair with 85s for instance. The K is an overcard to all pocket pairs up to QQ and thus you have at least 30% equity vs. pretty much anything that calls you. Finally, being suited helps, and gives you about a 40% chance of flopping a backdoor flush draw, which will give you lots of turn cards you can profitably double barrel. It also has very little equity against the range of value hands that will 4-bet you and thus it's a good candidate to 3-bet/fold in or out of position. And to top it all off, the K is a blocker to the top of his range, leaving only 3 Ks in the deck significantly cuts down the number of combos of KK, and to a lesser extent AK, KQ, KJ he can have.

This flop is the quintessential c-betting flop, especially as preflop 3-bettor. I would be betting this 100% of the time. You have a lot more aces in your range, between your Ax bluffs, your AT+ value aces, and of course the unlikely AA, than he does. He's probably not flatting many aces preflop except maybe some suited aces and maybe AT-AQ that he didn't feel comfortable playing for stacks but felt too strong to fold. He also probably doesn't have any premium pairs in his range as he would have 4-bet them preflop. On AT5 he will pretty much only be calling with Ax, Tx, 5x, 66-99, flush draws, and gutshots, QJ, KJ, KQ. He probably doesn't have a lot of 23/34/24 in his range. A5 and AT as well as 55 and TT we expect to raise this flop a lot since you look like you have an ace, and big flush draws like QJhh will probably raise too.

Turn ace pairs the board and makes it super unlikely that either of you has an ace. Hands like KK/QQ/JJ, and good 10s now comfortably slip into the value category, rather than the marginal. If your hand was good on the flop it's still good. And even better than a blank this ace just cut the number of aces the opponent can have significantly. The ace is technically a bad bluff card. With QThh I am snapping here. I don't think you play JJ-KK this way, and it's now pretty hard for you to have an ace. And if you happen to have an ace, ah well I still have a bunch of outs to the flush.

Now if villain thinks you never bluff and must have top pair or better on the flop to bet two streets, and you probably don't 3-bet with 55 a lot, and he has a T making TT pretty unlikely...Now he must put you on a very narrow range of Ax hands. If the only thing you can have is an ace, then that ace was the worst card in the deck for him. He had a pair and a flush draw...against a bigger non-dominating pair this gives you 2 outs to trips, 3 outs to two pair, and 9 outs to a flush, for a cool 14 outs... but that ace counterfeits everything. if you have an ace then his trips and two pair outs are gone. Even if you had KK he would have to at least trip up. So now he feels that against your value range he's drawing to a flush. He's about 18% to make his flush with one to come, but he's only getting a bit better than 2 to 1 on a call. Fearing he's behind he folds.

The correct play in villain's spot is read-dependent. He thinks hero has no bluffs in his range. Hero is representing such a narrow value range, but villain needs to believe he wins at showdown over 30% of the time. If hero has no bluffs then it's a good fold. If he can be bluffing (including turning a smaller pair or flush draw into a bluff) he should be calling.

Also, 3-betting K4s from the blind against a loose button opener doesn't make you a LAG. TAG players should be doing this to defend their blinds too some of the time. And calling and playing OOP is probably not the best method.

Last edited by oriholic; Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 03:50 AM..
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 08:35 AM
(#8)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CptKevUK View Post
I'm surprised our Hero had as much equity as you say he, or she, did.
It surprised me too when I put it into pokerstove. I would have thought less too (for a fold pre).. but it wasn't.


Quote:
Originally Posted by CptKevUK View Post
One interesting aspect from a read point of view is that after the Hero made the raise pre the Villain posted in chat that he was putting the Hero on A8.
That is 100% pertinent information that was left out of the initial post! Seeing that in chat SCREAMS 2nd or 3rd pair for the opp when they call the flop c-bet. With this being the case, I'd not only bet the turn, but if they call, I'm firing again on the river unless the river is a 10 or 5.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 08:58 AM
(#9)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
Fasinating feedback as usual guys, thanks so much. Ori, can you process this kind of info in the heat of the moment when at the table. Obviously not in such detail but is that the kind of thought process you run through your head at the time?

There is another equation that seems to be being overlooked;

Big bluff + success = great fun!!

PSO rocks.

K.
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:18 PM
(#10)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
It surprised me too when I put it into pokerstove. I would have thought less too (for a fold pre).. but it wasn't.
But being OOP makes it very difficult to realize your equity, you may not stack 99 on the K-high board, may get stacked by KJ on the K-high board, may get bluffed by 98 on the AQ3 board etc.


Quote:
That is 100% pertinent information that was left out of the initial post! Seeing that in chat SCREAMS 2nd or 3rd pair for the opp when they call the flop c-bet. With this being the case, I'd not only bet the turn, but if they call, I'm firing again on the river unless the river is a 10 or 5.
He said this after the hand. Putting him on specifically A8 is a bit optimistic, but putting him on a very Ax-heavy range of hands is totally reasonable.
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:30 PM
(#11)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
No, he said on the flop, I clearly remember factoring it in....
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:46 PM
(#12)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Oh, hahaha...he put ME on A8, from the hand before. The one where we had a clash of titans, my 58o vs. his 93o with another player all in. That was a fun hand.

On this hand he indeed put you on Ax/bluff with bluff=0, but he didn't say that until after the hand.
 
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Fri Sep 21, 2012, 01:50 PM
(#13)
CptKevUK's Avatar
Since: Apr 2012
Posts: 96
That's right he did confirm after the hand that he was sure I had an A.....
 

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