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10NL 6 Max QQ vs nit

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10NL 6 Max QQ vs nit - Sat Sep 22, 2012, 09:04 AM
(#1)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
One of my greatest dilema- QQ. On 10NL, sometimes I really don't know what to do with this premium.

Villain 1: 114 hands, 15/10, AF: 1.4, 3Bet: 4.7% (43), F4Bet: Nil, Flop CB: 63% (8), Turn CB: 50% (2)



Preflop: Again I was thinking I shouldn't turn this into a 4bet bluff in my last post, making a 4bet-fold when get 5bet, afraid of running into AA or KK. Hence I flat behind.

Flop: SPR was 4. I'm not sure if this means we have to make a commitment decision against a nit, with an overpair to the flop. He bets 60% of pot and I flat.

Turn: He bets 3/4 pot which shows strength. At this point, I felt committed. I put villain's range as JJ+, AKs, AKo on Pokerstove and we're 58% slight favourite over villain. I thought we should call this bet, and I shoved as there wasn't much left.

Up till this point, was my Preflop and turn action alright? On top of that, against how tight a villain's stat will you fold your QQ Preflop?
 
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Sun Sep 23, 2012, 12:44 AM
(#2)
GarethC23's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,273
Hey TheAwesome

A few things. First is I don't agree with your pokerstove evaluation. I think his turn range is much more likely to be JJ+ than JJ+ AK. I see it as pretty unlikely that a nit plays AK this way as I would expect the overwhelming majority of the time for him to give up on the turn (if he didn't on the flop).

His range might be TT-AA exactly, against which in stove we have 31% equity. We have 4.5% equity against 12 combos of AA,KK, 50% equity against 1 combo of QQ, 95.5% equity against 6 combos of JJ, and 4.5% equity against 3 combos of TT.

So, it is very important for us, if we are to continue in the hand, that villain has JJ quite often. But unfortunately, it is the overpair that he is least likely to play this way. What I mean by that is that he sometimes calls preflop or checks the turn with JJ, in comparison to KK, which he always plays this way.

I don't really think he would 3b TT all that often. He might sometimes but we can't be sure. As it stands I would take his range to be QQ+ and 2/3 JJ, against which we have 28% equity. We probably need something approaching 36% equity to get it in profitably in this spot and I just don't think we can get there. It is an awful spot and one I don't recommend folding in too lightly.

But one of the best ways to make money against nits in the long run is to fold hands they don't expect you to fold when they are going for big value, and I think this is one of those cases.

For reference if we had KK in this spot we would be crushing, against TT+ we have 56% equity, an enormous difference from QQ. So we can see how, if we were just one notch stronger, this situation would be night and day.

You made the best preflop decision.

At some point of tightness you can set mine someone with QQ in position, while being aware of set over set situations AQX boards, so there isn't a clear or easy answer to some point of tightness being a fold with QQ facing a three-bet, but its more a question of the effective stacks or being ip or oop.
 
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Mon Sep 24, 2012, 05:10 AM
(#3)
TheAwesomeNW's Avatar
Since: Mar 2012
Posts: 474
Thanks Gareth for the long reply. Surprisingly, he held 54o, which means he turned trips. I guess he was 3-betting me light here and went for the confident Cbet thinking I would fold my AK/AQ haha.

But nevertheless, I agree with you that we would not have enough equity in this spot, given the action he took postflop. His range got to be QQ+ most of the time and we were beaten
 
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Mon Sep 24, 2012, 08:21 AM
(#4)
behappy621's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 181
I have had this sort of situation before,

Ive seen Nits/Tags, do this with 98s, i was like...Jawdrop.

So now i definitely would not be surprised to see the guy have 54o.

These guys even though they multi table, they can definitely mix up there game, im really starting to gain more and more respect for these winning tags/nits.

I think for me, definitely these sorta players would not double barrel oop with Nothing, esp with such huge bet sizing.

On the flop, i would really like to 2.5x/3. raise him to really find out if im good with QQ, and get him to laydown AK, or things like 10's 99's. if he has JJ, he would probably flat, and the rest of the streets will check it down, and if board doesnt get ugly by river i might go for thin value vs underpairs to my QQ.
 

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